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14.11.2026 23:30
Arena Condá

Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 73.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
73.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Chapecoense-sc Win 26.2%
Draw 21.6%
Vasco DA Gama Win 52.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chapecoense-sc1.23
Vasco DA Gama1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
L L W L L
4 GF / 11 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
W L W L D
7 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.3
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
23
BTTS Yes
21
21
Over 2.5
20
3.45
Shots on Goal
5.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 35 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 33 matches
Chapecoense-sc Statistic Vasco DA Gama
5 Wins 11
10 Draws 8
20 Losses 14
36 Goals For 43
70 Goals Against 50
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
23 BTTS Yes 21
31 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 10
2 Clean Sheets 4
11 Failed To Score 10
3.45 Shots On Goal 5.24
12.42 Total Shots 17.42
4 Corners 5.67
42.6% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Chapecoense-sc have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Vasco DA Gama carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 13 with 41 points while Chapecoense-sc sit 20 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vasco DA Gama. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 21 points from 33 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 33:68 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Marcinho (5 goals), Walter Clar (3 goals), Garcez (3 goals), with creative support from Giovanni Augusto (6 assists), Yannick Bolasie (3 assists), Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Vasco DA Gama have collected 41 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 43:50 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Andrés Gómez (5 goals), David (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (4 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (4 assists), David (3 assists), Andrés Gómez (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.4%)
Predicted formations: Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1 / Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 23 7 4 71:29 42 76
W W W W W
2 34 21 10 3 62:23 39 73
W D W W W
3 34 18 6 10 55:48 7 60
W W W W L
4 34 16 9 9 55:42 13 57
W W L L L
5 34 15 9 10 51:43 8 54
L L D L W
6 34 14 11 9 50:45 5 53
L W D L W
7 34 14 8 12 44:40 4 50
L L L W W
8 34 13 8 13 44:39 5 47
W W L D W
9 34 12 11 11 50:49 1 47
L D D W L
10 34 12 8 14 39:39 0 44
D L D W W
11 34 11 9 14 46:53 -7 42
W L L W D
12 34 11 9 14 40:51 -11 42
L W L L D
13 33 11 8 14 43:50 -7 41
W L W L D
14 34 10 10 14 39:48 -9 40
W L D W L
15 34 10 8 16 35:51 -16 38
L L D D L
16 34 9 11 14 38:42 -4 38
W L W L D
17 34 9 10 15 36:42 -6 37
D W L D L
18 34 9 10 15 38:47 -9 37
L W W L D
19 34 6 11 17 37:57 -20 29
L W L D D
20 33 4 9 20 33:68 -35 21
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B