BRAZIL SERIE A
23.07.2026 00:30
Arena Condá
Referee: R. Klein
Chapecoense-sc
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
Pedro · Assist: Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
33'
G. Plata ↔ Lorran
Flamengo
38'
Rafael Thyere
Flamengo
48'
Lorran
Flamengo
🟨
53'
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
59'
David Antunes ↔ Enio
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
59'
Vinicius Balieiro ↔ Bruno Matias
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
68'
Bruno Henrique ↔ G. de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
🔄
69'
Giovanni Augusto ↔ Neto Pessoa
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
69'
Y. Bolasie ↔ Kassio
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
69'
Ayrton Lucas ↔ Alex Sandro
Flamengo
🔄
69'
Jorginho ↔ Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
80'
Marcinho ↔ Rubens Ricoldi
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
80'
Leo Pereira ↔ Danilo
Flamengo
87'
Pedro · Assist: Samuel Lino
Flamengo

Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Chapecoense-sc Win 6.4%
Draw 5.6%
Flamengo Win 88%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chapecoense-sc0.95
Flamengo1.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WWDLW
19 GF / 36 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
52 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
2
1.89
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
12
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
16
3.33
Shots on Goal
5.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 19 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 26 matches
Chapecoense-sc Statistic Flamengo
2 Wins 17
6 Draws 6
11 Losses 3
19 Goals For 52
36 Goals Against 23
1 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.89 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
12 BTTS Yes 13
17 Over 1.5 24
9 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 6
1 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 2
3.33 Shots On Goal 5.82
12.67 Total Shots 15.64
3.78 Corners 4.64
42.8% Ball Possession 55.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Flamengo's more proactive style and Chapecoense-sc's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 34 points while Chapecoense-sc sit 20 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chapecoense-sc expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Flamengo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Flamengo having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Flamengo.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

With 9 points from 17 games and a place of 20, Chapecoense-sc still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 17:33, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through W. Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), Neto Pessoa (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), W. Clar (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 34 points after 17 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 31:16 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by Pedro (10 goals), Samuel Lino (4 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (6 assists), Pedro (4 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 2 times, Flamengo won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:33 from Chapecoense-sc's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Chapecoense-sc 4-4-1-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Chapecoense-sc 7, Flamengo 5
H2H summary: Chapecoense-sc wins 2, draws 2, Flamengo wins 11

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
2 26 16 6 4 51:21 30 54
W W W L W
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 26 8 8 10 27:27 0 32
L L L L W
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B