BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.8%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Central SC Win 36.6%
Draw 21.2%
Ferroviario Win 42.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Central SC0.76
Ferroviario1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Central SC Central SC
WWDLW
8 GF / 7 GA
Ferroviario Ferroviario
WLDWL
15 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.7
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
4
BTTS Yes
5
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Central SC Central SC 10 matches
Ferroviario Ferroviario 10 matches
Central SC Statistic Ferroviario
3 Wins 6
4 Draws 3
3 Losses 1
8 Goals For 15
7 Goals Against 7
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.7 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
4 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 7
2 Over 2.5 3
0 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ferroviario having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Ferroviario. Ferroviario carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 21 points while Central SC sit 4 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Central SC Analysis

Central SC enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 10 matches, placing them 4 in their league. With 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 8:7, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Caio Vinicius (3 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Ferroviario Analysis

Ferroviario enter this tie with a season profile built on 21 points from 10 matches, placing them 1 in their league. Their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 15:7 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Ciel (5 goals), Luisinho (3 goals), Lucas Black (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Central SC won 1 times, Ferroviario won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Central SC's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.8%)
H2H summary: Central SC wins 1, draws 1, Ferroviario wins 0
Last matches: Central SC
14.06.26
Ser
Central SC
Laguna
2
1
W
29.05.26
Ser
Central SC
America-RN
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Central SC
Sousa
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Central SC
Maguary PE
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Central SC
ABC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Central SC
ABC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Central SC
Maguary PE
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Central SC
Sousa
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Central SC
America-RN
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Central SC
Laguna
1
1
D
24.08.25
Ser
Central SC
Maranhão
0
0
D
16.08.25
Ser
Central SC
Maranhão
1
2
L
10.08.25
Ser
Central SC
Lagarto
2
2
D
03.08.25
Ser
Central SC
Lagarto
1
0
W
27.07.25
Ser
Central SC
Ferroviario
0
0
D
20.07.25
Ser
Central SC
Sousa
1
1
D
13.07.25
Ser
Central SC
America-RN
0
0
D
06.07.25
Ser
Central SC
Santa Cruz RN
1
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Central SC
Santa Cruz
1
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Central SC
Horizonte
1
1
D
Last matches: Ferroviario
13.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
0
W
01.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
11.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
3
2
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
2
L
02.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz RN
2
1
W
13.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Horizonte
0
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Sousa
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Treze
1
1
D
16.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
America-RN
2
3
L
08.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz
3
1
W
01.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz
1
3
L
H2H: Central SC vs Ferroviario
27.07.25
H2H
Ferroviario
Central SC
0
0
D
20.04.25
H2H
Central SC
Ferroviario
2
1
W
Last matches: Central SC
14.06.26
Ser
Central SC
Laguna
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Central SC
Maguary PE
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Central SC
ABC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Central SC
Sousa
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Central SC
America-RN
0
1
L
24.08.25
Ser
Central SC
Maranhão
0
0
D
03.08.25
Ser
Central SC
Lagarto
1
0
W
20.07.25
Ser
Central SC
Sousa
1
1
D
06.07.25
Ser
Central SC
Santa Cruz RN
1
0
W
08.06.25
Ser
Central SC
Treze
1
0
W
25.05.25
Ser
Central SC
Horizonte
1
0
W
18.05.25
Ser
Central SC
Santa Cruz
1
2
L
04.05.25
Ser
Central SC
America-RN
1
2
L
20.04.25
Ser
Central SC
Ferroviario
2
1
W
H2H at home: Central SC
20.04.25
H2H
Central SC
Ferroviario
2
1
W
Last matches: Ferroviario
01.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
0
0
D
11.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
2
L
19.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz RN
2
1
W
13.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Horizonte
0
2
L
16.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
America-RN
2
3
L
01.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz
1
3
L
18.05.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Treze
0
1
L
11.05.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Sousa
0
4
L
20.04.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
1
2
L
H2H away: Ferroviario
20.04.25
H2H
Central SC
Ferroviario
2
1
L

Standings

Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)