BRAZIL SERIE B
05.09.2026 21:30
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo
Referee: F. Rodrigues
Ceara
Match Timeline
Sport Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
Nicolás Ferreira
Ceara
🔄
45'
Nicolás Ferreira ↔ Enzo Valentim Lodovico
Ceara
🔄
45'
Wendel da Silva Costa ↔ Vinícius
Ceara
🔄
58'
Gabriel Silva Rocha ↔ Luiz Otávio
Ceara
VAR
61'
Enzo Valentim Lodovico
Ceara
🔄
64'
Juan ↔ Clayson Henrique da Silva Vieira
Sport Recife
73'
Luiz Otávio · Assist: Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira
Ceara
🔄
74'
Willian Oliveira ↔ Biel
Sport Recife
🔄
75'
Sávio António Alves ↔ Sanchez Costa
Ceara
🔄
83'
Marcelo Ajul ↔ Augusto Pucci De Freitas
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Zé Gabriel ↔ Pedro Victor Martins Silva Costa
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Chrystian Amaral Barletta de Almeida ↔ Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
🟨
86'
Enzo Valentim Lodovico
Ceara
88'
Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira
Ceara
🔄
89'
Matheus Araujo ↔ Giovanni Pavani
Ceara
90+5'
Marlon Douglas · Assist: Diego·Hernandez
Sport Recife

Ceara vs Sport Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.1%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.32
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.1%
1.33
BTTS Yes
78.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.32
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.1%
1.17
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 40.8%
Draw 9.9%
Sport Recife Win 49.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara0.98
Sport Recife1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
25 GF / 32 GA
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WLDWL
33 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
12
BTTS Yes
15
8
Over 2.5
11
4.16
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 25 matches
Sport Recife Sport Recife 25 matches
Ceara Statistic Sport Recife
7 Wins 9
7 Draws 11
11 Losses 5
25 Goals For 33
32 Goals Against 24
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
12 BTTS Yes 15
18 Over 1.5 18
8 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 4
4.16 Shots On Goal 4.2
13.24 Total Shots 13.68
5.64 Corners 4.68
51.4% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Sport Recife's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sport Recife. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Sport Recife carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 38 points while Ceara sit 17 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara sit 17 with 28 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats with a 25:30 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Melk (4 goals), Lucas Lima (3 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Juan Alano (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sport Recife Analysis

So far, Sport Recife have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 38 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 11 draws, and 5 losses, while the 33:24 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Perotti (7 goals), Chrystian Barletta (6 goals), Biel Fonseca (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), Biel Fonseca (3 assists), Carlos De Pena (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 5 times, Sport Recife won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:15 from Ceara's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 4-2-3-1 / Sport Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 5, draws 5, Sport Recife wins 5

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15
Ceara Home
29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
Promotion
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