ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Referee: L. Marinelli
Catanzaro
Match Timeline
Avellino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Tommaso Cancellotti
Avellino
41'
S. Pontisso · Assist: J. Petriccione
Catanzaro
VAR
52'
Federico Di Francesco
Catanzaro
🔄
54'
C. Patierno ↔ T. Biasci
Avellino
🔄
54'
M. Besaggio ↔ L. Pandolfi
Avellino
🔄
60'
D. Sounas ↔ R. Insigne
Avellino
🔄
69'
F. Di Francesco ↔ F. Rispoli
Catanzaro
🔄
80'
S. Pontisso ↔ M. Pompetti
Catanzaro
🔄
80'
M. Liberali ↔ R. Frosinini
Catanzaro
🔄
80'
G. Alesi ↔ P. Iemmello
Catanzaro
🔄
80'
T. Cancellotti ↔ A. Le Borgne
Avellino
🔄
80'
L. Palmiero ↔ L. D'Andrea
Avellino
83'
T. Cassandro · Assist: C. Favasuli
Catanzaro
🔄
90+4'
J. Petriccione ↔ P. Nuamah
Catanzaro
90'
P. Iemmello
Catanzaro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 25.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 34.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
25.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
34.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Catanzaro Win 61.4%
Draw 15.4%
Avellino Win 23.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Catanzaro1.53
Avellino1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Catanzaro Catanzaro
WWDLW
62 GF / 52 GA
Avellino Avellino
WLDWL
43 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
26
BTTS Yes
19
21
Over 2.5
17
4.44
Shots on Goal
3.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Catanzaro Catanzaro 39 matches
Avellino Avellino 39 matches
Catanzaro Statistic Avellino
15 Wins 13
14 Draws 10
10 Losses 16
62 Goals For 43
52 Goals Against 56
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
26 BTTS Yes 19
31 Over 1.5 29
21 Over 2.5 17
16 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 14
4.44 Shots On Goal 3.36
12.67 Total Shots 9.67
4.15 Corners 4.15
54.1% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs Catanzaro's more proactive style and Avellino's more cautious structure, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Catanzaro had more of the ball in the first leg (56% possession compared to 44%). Avellino carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 5 shots on goal compared to 2. Catanzaro also attempted more passes (466 to 337) and completed 408. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Avellino. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Catanzaro expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Avellino in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avellino having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Catanzaro Analysis

Catanzaro come into this tie placed 5 in their league with 59 points from 38 matches. With 15 wins, 14 draws, and 9 losses plus a goal ratio of 62:51, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Filippo Pittarello (12 goals), P. Iemmello (10 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (6 goals), with creative support from P. Iemmello (9 assists), Filippo Pittarello (6 assists), S. Pontisso (6 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Avellino Analysis

Avellino enter this tie with a season profile built on 49 points from 38 matches, placing them 8 in their league. Their record of 13 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats with goals at 43:55 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Tommaso Biasci (12 goals), Lorenco Šimić (4 goals), M. Palumbo (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sounas (5 assists), Tommaso Biasci (3 assists), M. Palumbo (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Catanzaro won 6 times, Avellino won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:10 from Catanzaro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.91 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.6%)
Predicted formations: Catanzaro 3-4-2-1 / Avellino 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Catanzaro wins 6, draws 4, Avellino wins 1
Stats
Catanzaro Catanzaro
Avellino Avellino
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 5
20 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0
47% Ball Possession 53%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 2
14 Shots insidebox 5
6 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 5
386 Total passes 434
325 Passes accurate 352
1.76 expected_goals 0.64
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Catanzaro
Formation
Avellino
M. Pigliacelli
M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
T. Cassandro
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini
N. Brighenti
N. Brighenti
C. Favasuli
🎯
C. Favasuli
S. Pontisso
S. Pontisso
J. Petriccione
🎯
J. Petriccione
F. Di Francesco
F. Di Francesco
M. Liberali
M. Liberali
G. Alesi
G. Alesi
F. Pittarello
F. Pittarello
A. Iannarilli
A. Iannarilli
T. Cancellotti
T. Cancellotti
A. Izzo
A. Izzo
P. Enrici
P. Enrici
F. Missori
F. Missori
D. Sounas
D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
M. Palumbo
L. Palmiero
L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
M. Besaggio
C. Patierno
C. Patierno
R. Russo
R. Russo
Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
22
M. Pigliacelli
G
84
T. Cassandro
⚽ 83'
D
4
Matias Antonini
D
23
N. Brighenti
D
27
C. Favasuli
🎯 83'
M
20
S. Pontisso
⚽ 41' ↓ 80'
M
10
J. Petriccione
🎯 41' ↓ 90+4'
M
94
F. Di Francesco
↓ 69'
M
14
M. Liberali
↓ 80'
F
30
G. Alesi
↓ 80'
F
8
F. Pittarello
F
Substitutes
1
C. Marietta
G
77
M. D'Alessandro
F
28
R. Oudin
M
21
M. Pompetti
↑ 80'
M
62
R. Frosinini
↑ 80'
D
5
E. Bashi
D
6
Fellipe Jack
D
9
P. Iemmello
⚽ 90' ↑ 80'
F
39
N. Koffi
F
26
B. Verrengia
D
19
P. Nuamah
↑ 90+4'
F
32
F. Rispoli
↑ 69'
M
Avellino 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
A. Iannarilli
G
29
T. Cancellotti
↓ 80' 🟨 15'
D
4
A. Izzo
D
56
P. Enrici
D
2
F. Missori
D
24
D. Sounas
↓ 60'
M
20
M. Palumbo
M
6
L. Palmiero
↓ 80'
M
39
M. Besaggio
↓ 54'
M
9
C. Patierno
↓ 54'
F
10
R. Russo
F
Substitutes
53
J. Sassi
G
30
G. Daffara
G
14
T. Biasci
↑ 54'
F
8
L. Pandolfi
↑ 54'
F
18
L. Sgarbi
F
27
A. Le Borgne
↑ 80'
M
21
M. Armellino
M
7
G. Tutino
F
94
R. Insigne
↑ 60'
F
63
A. Fontanarosa
D
11
L. D'Andrea
↑ 80'
F
16
J. Kumi
M
Last matches: Catanzaro
29.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
2
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
L
20.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
3
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Bari
2
3
L
01.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
2
3
L
25.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Spezia
4
2
W
18.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
1
1
D
14.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Modena
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Cesena
1
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Padova
3
1
W
08.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Empoli
3
2
W
04.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Carrarese
3
3
D
01.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Frosinone
2
2
D
21.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
3
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Mantova
2
0
W
10.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Pescara
2
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Reggiana
2
0
W
Last matches: Avellino
22.07.26
Fri
Avellino
Scafatese
3
1
W
08.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Modena
1
0
W
01.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Empoli
0
1
L
24.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Bari
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Mantova
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
07.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Padova
1
0
W
03.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
0
4
L
28.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Juve Stabia
0
0
D
22.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Reggiana
1
1
D
15.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Pescara
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Frosinone
1
3
L
08.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Monza
1
2
L
31.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Cesena
3
1
W
24.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Spezia
0
1
L
17.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Carrarese
1
2
L
H2H: Catanzaro vs Avellino
12.05.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
0
W
11.04.26
H2H
Avellino
Catanzaro
1
1
D
13.12.25
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
0
W
04.03.23
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
4
1
W
16.11.22
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
3
D
30.10.22
H2H
Avellino
Catanzaro
2
2
D
06.02.22
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
2
0
W
30.09.21
H2H
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
0
D
03.03.21
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
0
1
L
08.11.20
H2H
Avellino
Catanzaro
1
3
W
22.03.20
H2H
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
0
D
02.11.19
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
1
W
Last matches: Catanzaro
24.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
3
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Bari
2
3
L
25.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Spezia
4
2
W
14.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Modena
2
2
D
06.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Empoli
3
2
W
01.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Frosinone
2
2
D
14.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Mantova
2
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Reggiana
2
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Sampdoria
0
0
D
27.12.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Cesena
2
0
W
13.12.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
0
W
29.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
3
2
W
21.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Pescara
3
3
D
02.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Venezia
2
1
W
25.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
1
0
W
19.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Padova
0
1
L
26.09.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
13.09.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Carrarese
1
1
D
H2H at home: Catanzaro
12.05.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
0
W
13.12.25
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
0
W
04.03.23
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
4
1
W
16.11.22
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
3
D
06.02.22
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
2
0
W
03.03.21
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
0
1
L
02.11.19
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
1
W
Last matches: Avellino
01.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Empoli
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Mantova
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
03.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
0
4
L
22.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Reggiana
1
1
D
08.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Monza
1
2
L
24.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Spezia
0
1
L
27.12.25
Ser
Avellino
Bari
1
1
D
13.12.25
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
1
L
29.11.25
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
1
0
W
09.11.25
Ser
Avellino
Cesena
0
3
L
28.10.25
Ser
Avellino
Pescara
1
1
D
18.10.25
Ser
Avellino
Juve Stabia
0
2
L
30.09.25
Ser
Avellino
Padova
2
2
D
21.09.25
Ser
Avellino
Carrarese
4
3
W
31.08.25
Ser
Avellino
Modena
1
1
D
24.08.25
Ser
Avellino
Frosinone
0
2
L
10.08.25
Cop
Avellino
Audace Cerignola
0
1
L
H2H away: Avellino
12.05.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
0
L
13.12.25
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
0
L
04.03.23
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
4
1
L
16.11.22
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
3
D
06.02.22
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
2
0
L
03.03.21
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
0
1
W
02.11.19
H2H
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
1
L

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation