PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Referee: H. Malheiro
Casa Pia
Match Timeline
Rio Ave
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
35'
G. Larrazabal · Assist: D. Livramento
Casa Pia
52'
J. Blesa
Rio Ave
🔄
59'
D. Livramento ↔ J. Livolant
Casa Pia
🔄
59'
S. Perez ↔ R. Brito
Casa Pia
🔄
63'
D. Spikic ↔ A. Papakanellos
Rio Ave
🔄
76'
K. Prieto ↔ A. Conte
Casa Pia
🟨
80'
Joao Marques
Casa Pia
🔄
82'
Diogo Bezerra ↔ O. Pohlmann
Rio Ave
🔄
86'
P. Rosas ↔ K. Osundina
Casa Pia
🔄
86'
L. Ofori ↔ I. Mohamed
Casa Pia
🔄
88'
J. Tome ↔ L. Buta
Rio Ave
🔄
88'
T. Monteiro ↔ J. Lomboto
Rio Ave

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 80.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
80.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Casa Pia Win 19.9%
Draw 0%
Rio Ave Win 80.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Casa Pia1.23
Rio Ave1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Casa Pia Casa Pia
WWDLW
30 GF / 56 GA
Rio Ave Rio Ave
WLDWL
34 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
15
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
20
2.82
Shots on Goal
3.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 matches
Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 matches
Casa Pia Statistic Rio Ave
6 Wins 8
11 Draws 11
16 Losses 14
30 Goals For 34
56 Goals Against 56
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
15 BTTS Yes 17
25 Over 1.5 27
15 Over 2.5 20
10 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 6
15 Failed To Score 13
2.82 Shots On Goal 3.88
8.55 Total Shots 10.58
3.88 Corners 4.39
41.3% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rio Ave. Casa Pia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Casa Pia expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Rio Ave in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rio Ave having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Casa Pia Analysis

Casa Pia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 29 points from 33 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 30:56, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Cassiano (6 goals), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 goals), J. Livolant (3 goals), with creative support from J. Livolant (8 assists), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 assists), A. Conte (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rio Ave Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Rio Ave have collected 35 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 34:56 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Clayton (10 goals), Andre Luiz (7 goals), J. Blesa (6 goals), with creative support from Andre Luiz (5 assists), Clayton (4 assists), D. Spikic (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Casa Pia won 2 times, Rio Ave won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:15 from Casa Pia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Casa Pia 3-4-3 / Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Casa Pia wins 2, draws 4, Rio Ave wins 5
Stats
Casa Pia Casa Pia
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
1
9 Corner Kicks 0
17 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 0
41% Ball Possession 59%
20 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 2
8 Blocked Shots 1
12 Shots insidebox 2
8 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
278 Total passes 432
204 Passes accurate 349
2.34 expected_goals 0.61
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Casa Pia
Formation
Rio Ave
P. Sequeira
P. Sequeira
J. Goulart
J. Goulart
Kaly
Kaly
D. Sousa
D. Sousa
K. Prieto
K. Prieto
S. Perez
S. Perez
L. Ofori
L. Ofori
P. Rosas
P. Rosas
G. Larrazabal
G. Larrazabal
D. Livramento
🎯
D. Livramento
J. Marques
J. Marques
E. van der Gouw
E. van der Gouw
J. Tome
J. Tome
J. Brabec
J. Brabec
Gustavo Mancha
Gustavo Mancha
O. Richards
O. Richards
T. Nikitscher
T. Nikitscher
A. Ntoi
A. Ntoi
Diogo Bezerra
Diogo Bezerra
J. Blesa
J. Blesa
D. Spikic
D. Spikic
T. Monteiro
T. Monteiro
Casa Pia 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
P. Sequeira
G
4
J. Goulart
D
3
Kaly
D
43
D. Sousa
D
19
K. Prieto
↓ 76'
M
42
S. Perez
↓ 59'
M
80
L. Ofori
↓ 86'
M
75
P. Rosas
↓ 86'
M
72
G. Larrazabal
⚽ 35'
F
10
D. Livramento
🎯 35' ↓ 59'
F
11
J. Marques
🟨 80'
F
Substitutes
95
I. Mandic
G
6
J. Fonte
D
13
K. Osundina
↑ 86'
F
18
A. Geraldes
D
5
A. Conte
↑ 76'
D
29
J. Livolant
↑ 59'
F
8
R. Brito
↑ 59'
M
99
C. Mendes
F
24
I. Mohamed
↑ 86'
M
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
E. van der Gouw
G
20
J. Tome
↓ 88'
D
32
J. Brabec
D
39
Gustavo Mancha
D
77
O. Richards
D
44
T. Nikitscher
M
5
A. Ntoi
M
7
Diogo Bezerra
↓ 82'
11
J. Blesa
⚽ 52'
M
18
D. Spikic
↓ 63'
M
9
T. Monteiro
↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
1
C. Miszta
G
54
G. Liavas
M
80
O. Pohlmann
↑ 82'
M
27
T. Medina
M
25
Rafael Lobato
F
24
L. Buta
↑ 88'
D
63
J. Lomboto
↑ 88'
D
14
K. Zoabi
F
19
A. Papakanellos
↑ 63'
M
Last matches: Casa Pia
28.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
2
0
W
20.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
0
0
D
11.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Tondela
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Alverca
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Benfica
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estrela
0
4
L
07.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estoril
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
1
D
23.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Famalicao
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Arouca
3
2
W
08.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Nacional
0
0
D
02.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
FC Porto
2
1
W
23.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
AVS
3
3
D
16.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
0
3
L
04.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
3
L
28.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
Last matches: Rio Ave
11.05.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
1
4
L
03.05.26
Pri
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Guimaraes
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pri
Rio Ave
AVS
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Alverca
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Estoril
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Estrela
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Tondela
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Famalicao
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Rio Ave
FC Porto
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Moreirense
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Rio Ave
SC Braga
0
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Arouca
0
3
L
25.01.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Nacional
0
4
L
17.01.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Benfica
0
2
L
04.01.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
3
1
W
28.12.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
0
4
L
20.12.25
Pri
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
13.12.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Guimaraes
0
1
L
H2H: Casa Pia vs Rio Ave
16.05.26
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
04.01.26
H2H
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
3
1
L
29.03.25
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
2
1
W
12.01.25
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
3
L
02.11.24
H2H
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
2
2
D
11.02.24
H2H
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
1
0
L
02.09.23
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
16.04.23
H2H
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
1
1
D
30.10.22
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
0
W
01.05.22
H2H
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
1
0
L
19.12.21
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
0
1
L
Last matches: Casa Pia
28.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
2
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Tondela
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
0
D
06.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Benfica
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Arouca
3
2
W
02.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
FC Porto
2
1
W
23.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
AVS
3
3
D
28.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
13.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
1
1
D
29.11.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Alverca
0
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Estrela
3
5
L
03.10.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Estoril
2
2
D
21.09.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Famalicao
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Nacional
0
2
L
08.08.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
0
2
L
H2H at home: Casa Pia
16.05.26
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
29.03.25
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
2
1
W
12.01.25
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
3
L
02.09.23
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
30.10.22
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
0
W
19.12.21
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
0
1
L
Last matches: Rio Ave
25.04.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Guimaraes
0
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
2
0
W
22.03.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Estoril
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Tondela
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Rio Ave
FC Porto
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Rio Ave
SC Braga
0
3
L
25.01.26
Pri
Rio Ave
Nacional
0
4
L
28.12.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
0
4
L
20.12.25
Pri
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
06.12.25
Pri
Rio Ave
AVS
2
1
W
08.11.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Alverca
1
1
D
25.10.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Estrela
2
1
W
28.09.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Famalicao
0
0
D
23.09.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Benfica
1
1
D
13.09.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Moreirense
1
3
L
23.08.25
Pri
Rio Ave
Arouca
3
3
D
H2H away: Rio Ave
16.05.26
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
29.03.25
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
2
1
L
12.01.25
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
3
W
02.09.23
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
30.10.22
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
0
L
19.12.21
H2H
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
0
1
W