BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.1%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Capital Brasilia Win 47.9%
Draw 15.9%
Nacional AM Win 36.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Capital Brasilia1.25
Nacional AM1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia
WWDLW
21 GF / 8 GA
Nacional AM Nacional AM
WLDWL
17 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.31
0.62
Average Goals Conceded
0.69
6
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 13 matches
Nacional AM Nacional AM 13 matches
Capital Brasilia Statistic Nacional AM
8 Wins 8
3 Draws 3
2 Losses 2
21 Goals For 17
8 Goals Against 9
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
0.62 Avg Goals Conceded 0.69
6 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 8
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Nacional AM have the edge after taking the first leg 1-0, leaving Capital Brasilia needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nacional AM. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nacional AM having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Capital Brasilia come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Capital Brasilia Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Capital Brasilia arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 23 points after 10 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 16:6 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Nacional AM Analysis

Nacional AM enter this tie with a season profile built on 20 points from 10 matches, placing them 2 in their league. The return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 15:9 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.1%)
Last matches: Capital Brasilia
04.07.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Nacional AM
0
1
L
27.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
4
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
5
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
1
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
1
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Porto Velho
3
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
2
D
05.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
0
1
L
28.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Luverdense
1
2
L
15.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goianésia
1
1
D
07.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiânia
1
1
D
Last matches: Nacional AM
04.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
2
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
Last matches: Capital Brasilia
27.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
4
0
W
07.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
1
0
W
20.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Porto Velho
3
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goianésia
1
1
D
01.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiânia
0
0
D
18.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Luverdense
2
0
W
10.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
1
D
19.04.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
0
1
L
Last matches: Nacional AM
21.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
2
4
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
1
0
W

Standings

Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)