ITALY › SERIE A
17.05.2026 18:45
Unipol Domus
Referee: A. Arena
Cagliari
Match Timeline
Torino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
37'
R. Obrador · Assist: M. Prati
Torino
⚽
39'
S. Esposito · Assist: G. Gaetano
Cagliari
⚽
45'
Y. Mina
Cagliari
🔄
46'
L. Marianucci ↔ G. Maripan
Torino
🔄
59'
D. Zapata ↔ C. Adams
Torino
🔄
59'
M. Prati ↔ C. Casadei
Torino
🔄
72'
A. Deiola ↔ M. Folorunsho
Cagliari
🔄
72'
M. Adopo ↔ I. Sulemana
Cagliari
🔄
77'
M. Pedersen ↔ A. Njie
Torino
🟨
82'
Paul Mendy
Cagliari
🟨
82'
Guillermo Maripán
Torino
🔄
82'
P. Mendy ↔ A. Belotti
Cagliari
🔄
82'
S. Esposito ↔ J. Rodriguez
Cagliari
🔄
85'
E. Ilkhan ↔ S. Kulenovic
Torino

Cagliari vs Torino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cagliari Win 39.6%
Draw 23.5%
Torino Win 36.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cagliari1.28
Torino1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cagliari Cagliari
WWDLW
42 GF / 54 GA
Torino Torino
WLDWL
47 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
20
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
24
3.33
Shots on Goal
3.98

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cagliari Cagliari 39 matches
Torino Torino 40 matches
Cagliari Statistic Torino
10 Wins 15
12 Draws 8
17 Losses 17
42 Goals For 47
54 Goals Against 63
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
20 BTTS Yes 19
30 Over 1.5 28
18 Over 2.5 24
8 Over 3.5 11
8 Clean Sheets 14
14 Failed To Score 11
3.33 Shots On Goal 3.98
10.54 Total Shots 11.93
3.72 Corners 4.05
45.6% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Torino. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cagliari expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Torino in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Torino having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Cagliari Analysis

Cagliari approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 37 points from 36 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats with a 36:51 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Sebastiano Esposito (6 goals), Gennaro Borrelli (4 goals), Semih Kılıçsoy (4 goals), with creative support from Sebastiano Esposito (5 assists), M. Palestra (4 assists), G. Gaetano (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Torino Analysis

Torino sit 12 with 44 points after 36 league matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses with goals at 41:59 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Simeone (11 goals), Nikola Vlašić (8 goals), C. Adams (5 goals), with creative support from Nikola Vlašić (3 assists), C. Adams (2 assists), Emirhan İlkhan (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Zannetos Savva unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cagliari won 6 times, Torino won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:21 from Cagliari's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.5%)
Predicted formations: Cagliari 5-3-2 / Torino 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Cagliari 6, Torino 4
H2H summary: Cagliari wins 6, draws 5, Torino wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B