UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
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FUFA Technical Centre

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 38.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
38.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
BUL Win 61.5%
Draw 12.8%
Lugazi Win 25.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
BUL1.16
Lugazi0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
BUL BUL
WWDLW
29 GF / 28 GA
Lugazi Lugazi
WLDWL
19 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
0.7
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
12
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BUL BUL 27 matches
Lugazi Lugazi 27 matches
BUL Statistic Lugazi
9 Wins 5
8 Draws 8
10 Losses 14
29 Goals For 19
28 Goals Against 35
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 0.7
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
12 BTTS Yes 9
16 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights BUL's more proactive style and Lugazi's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lugazi. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Lugazi arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Lugazi having the stronger overall control.

BUL Analysis

So far, BUL have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 35 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 29:28 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by K. Ndugwa (6 goals), I. Wagoina (3 goals), J. Kirya (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Lugazi Analysis

Lugazi approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 23 points from 27 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 19:35, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Mungudit (5 goals), A. Kalanzi (3 goals), A. Mulindi (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, BUL won 2 times, Lugazi won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:3 from BUL's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
H2H summary: BUL wins 2, draws 1, Lugazi wins 1
Last matches: BUL
23.05.26
Pre
BUL
Entebbe UPPC
0
4
L
19.05.26
Pre
BUL
Kitara
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pre
BUL
SC Villa
0
0
D
28.04.26
Pre
BUL
NEC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
BUL
Express
2
0
W
21.04.26
Pre
BUL
UPDF
2
5
L
16.04.26
Pre
BUL
URA
1
1
D
08.04.26
Pre
BUL
Maroons
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pre
BUL
Mbarara City
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
BUL
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
5
1
W
03.03.26
Pre
BUL
Police
2
0
W
18.02.26
Pre
BUL
KCCA
1
2
L
13.02.26
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
1
D
30.01.26
Pre
BUL
UPDF
1
0
W
27.01.26
Pre
BUL
Lugazi
1
2
L
23.01.26
Pre
BUL
SC Villa
2
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
BUL
Police
1
3
L
13.12.25
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
3
L
Last matches: Lugazi
23.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
19.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
1
L
29.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
15.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
0
0
D
10.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
3
L
11.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
0
3
L
18.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
1
0
W
12.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
W
24.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
1
D
H2H: BUL vs Lugazi
12.05.26
H2H
BUL
Lugazi
0
0
D
27.01.26
H2H
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
L
29.04.25
H2H
BUL
Lugazi
4
0
W
03.01.25
H2H
Lugazi
BUL
1
2
W
Last matches: BUL
19.05.26
Pre
BUL
Kitara
1
1
D
28.04.26
Pre
BUL
NEC
0
1
L
21.04.26
Pre
BUL
UPDF
2
5
L
13.03.26
Pre
BUL
Mbarara City
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
5
1
W
13.02.26
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
1
D
23.01.26
Pre
BUL
SC Villa
2
1
W
16.12.25
Pre
BUL
Police
1
3
L
07.12.25
Pre
BUL
KCCA
1
2
L
27.11.25
Pre
BUL
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
30.10.25
Pre
BUL
Express
0
0
D
23.10.25
Pre
BUL
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
01.10.25
Pre
BUL
Maroons
1
0
W
26.09.25
Pre
BUL
URA
0
0
D
H2H at home: BUL
12.05.26
H2H
BUL
Lugazi
0
0
D
29.04.25
H2H
BUL
Lugazi
4
0
W
Last matches: Lugazi
19.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
29.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
0
0
D
11.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
1
L
03.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
0
3
L
12.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
1
L
05.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
0
2
L
25.11.25
Pre
Lugazi
Maroons
0
3
L
30.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
Kitara
0
4
L
16.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
0
D
01.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
2
L
H2H away: Lugazi
12.05.26
H2H
BUL
Lugazi
0
0
D
29.04.25
H2H
BUL
Lugazi
4
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9
BUL Home
30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League