ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
15.09.2026 18:45
Ashton Gate Stadium
Referee: Tim Robinson, England
Bristol City
Match Timeline
Lincoln
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Ben House
Lincoln
🟨
28'
Lisav Naif Eissat
Bristol City
🟨
37'
Deji Elerewe
Lincoln
🟨
41'
Lorent Tolaj
Bristol City
🟨
45'
Freddie Draper
Lincoln
53'
F. Draper · Assist: B. House
Lincoln
🔄
59'
J. Wallace ↔ D. Ballard
Bristol City
🔄
63'
C. Ogbene ↔ R. Hackett-Fairchild
Lincoln
🟨
68'
Ryley Towler
Lincoln
🟨
69'
George Wickens
Lincoln
🔄
71'
F. Draper ↔ R. Street
Lincoln
🔄
71'
A. Reach ↔ D. Oyegoke
Lincoln
🔄
76'
L. Tolaj ↔ E. Adebayo
Bristol City
🔄
76'
S. Twine ↔ S. Greenwood
Bristol City
🔄
76'
R. Dickie ↔ R. Atkinson
Bristol City
🔄
86'
C. Pring ↔ S. Bell
Bristol City
🔄
90+6'
I. Varfolomeev ↔ T. Bayliss
Lincoln

Bristol City vs Lincoln Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.4%
Odds 2.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.92
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.4%
2.00
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.92
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.10
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Bristol City Win 69.4%
Draw 4.7%
Lincoln Win 25.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bristol City1.52
Lincoln1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bristol City Bristol City
WWDLW
20 GF / 19 GA
Lincoln Lincoln
WLDWL
9 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
9
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
5
4.33
Shots on Goal
2.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bristol City Bristol City 13 matches
Lincoln Lincoln 12 matches
Bristol City Statistic Lincoln
5 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
4 Losses 6
20 Goals For 9
19 Goals Against 18
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
9 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 7
8 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 3
4.33 Shots On Goal 2.83
13.17 Total Shots 13.17
4.5 Corners 4.5
42.3% Ball Possession 37%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Bristol City's more proactive style and Lincoln's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bristol City expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Lincoln in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lincoln having the stronger overall control. Bristol City arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 10 points compared to Lincoln in 18 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Lincoln.

Bristol City Analysis

Bristol City approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 10 points after 5 outings. They have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 9:7 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on J. Knight (1 goals), R. Dickie (1 goals), L. Tolaj (1 goals), with creative support from Rio Cardines (3 assists), J. Wallace (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Lincoln Analysis

With 5 points from 5 games and a place of 18, Lincoln still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 4:6 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on R. Hackett (1 goals), A. Reach (1 goals), B. House (1 goals), with creative support from R. Hackett (1 assists), Tendayi Darikwa (1 assists), C. Elder (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Bristol City won 0 times, Lincoln won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Bristol City's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Bristol City 4-2-3-1 / Lincoln 3-4-3
Missing players: Bristol City 2, Lincoln 3
H2H summary: Bristol City wins 0, draws 0, Lincoln wins 1

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22 8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One