BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
16.05.2026 16:00
Stadion Hristo Botev
Referee: L. Lubomirov
Botev Plovdiv
Match Timeline
Cherno More Varna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
S. Petrov · Assist: N. Iliev
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
46'
E. Martinho da Silva ↔ H. Jocu
Botev Plovdiv
⚽
50'
Mascote · Assist: C. Meotti
Botev Plovdiv
⚽
56'
E. Kwateng · Assist: C. Meotti
Botev Plovdiv
⚽
57'
N. Iliev · Assist: C. Meotti
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
62'
Joao Bandaro ↔ A. Calcan
Cherno More Varna
🔄
62'
E. Nyagolov ↔ N. Zlatev
Cherno More Varna
🔄
62'
B. Beyhan ↔ G. Lazarov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
64'
W. Chimezie ↔ Pedro Igor
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
64'
S. Petrov ↔ Z. Tindano
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
71'
C. Meotti ↔ S. Tsonov
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
76'
Mascote ↔ I. Dorgu
Botev Plovdiv
⚽
77'
S. Tsonov · Assist: I. Dorgu
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
78'
C. Sidney ↔ K. Mihaylov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
83'
D. Teles ↔ G. Paskov
Cherno More Varna
🟨
87'
Zakaria Tindano
Botev Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Botev Plovdiv Win 39.8%
Draw 12.4%
Cherno More Varna Win 47.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botev Plovdiv1.05
Cherno More Varna1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv
WWDLW
39 GF / 43 GA
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
WLDWL
38 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
17
BTTS Yes
13
18
Over 2.5
13
3.35
Shots on Goal
2.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 33 matches
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 36 matches
Botev Plovdiv Statistic Cherno More Varna
11 Wins 14
7 Draws 12
15 Losses 10
39 Goals For 38
43 Goals Against 31
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
17 BTTS Yes 13
25 Over 1.5 21
18 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 18
11 Failed To Score 13
3.35 Shots On Goal 2.32
9.39 Total Shots 6.21
3.71 Corners 2.82
37.5% Ball Possession 29.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cherno More Varna. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botev Plovdiv expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cherno More Varna in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cherno More Varna having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Botev Plovdiv Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Botev Plovdiv have collected 43 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, while the 42:41 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Okoflex (8 goals), Mascote (8 goals), N. Minkov (4 goals), with creative support from A. Okoflex (6 assists), N. Minkov (6 assists), Todor Nedelev (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Cherno More Varna Analysis

Cherno More Varna sit 6 with 51 points after 33 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 12 draws, and 8 losses, while the 36:26 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Lazarov (8 goals), Nikolay Zlatev (5 goals), A. Chandarov (4 goals), with creative support from A. Donchev (4 assists), C. Sidney (3 assists), V. Panayotov (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Botev Plovdiv won 6 times, Cherno More Varna won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from Botev Plovdiv's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: Botev Plovdiv 4-2-3-1 / Cherno More Varna 3-5-2
H2H summary: Botev Plovdiv wins 6, draws 2, Cherno More Varna wins 6

Standings

A PFG: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 4 4 64:22 42 70
D W D W W
2 30 17 9 4 57:20 37 60
L D W W W
3 30 18 5 7 50:31 19 59
W W L W W
4 30 16 8 6 43:23 20 56
D W W W L
5 30 11 13 6 30:33 -3 46
D D W W W
6 30 11 11 8 33:26 7 44
L D L L W
7 30 12 8 10 33:27 6 44
W L W W W
8 30 11 7 12 40:37 3 40
W D W W L
9 30 10 9 11 36:33 3 39
D L W L D
10 30 9 11 10 24:26 -2 38
W L D L W
11 30 9 10 11 40:39 1 37
L W L L W
12 30 5 12 13 25:50 -25 27
D W L L L
13 30 7 5 18 23:43 -20 26
L L D L L
14 30 7 5 18 25:58 -33 26
D W D L L
15 30 4 11 15 19:44 -25 23
D L L W L
16 30 3 8 19 15:45 -30 17
D L L L L
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