BRAZIL SERIE A
23.07.2026 22:30
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Referee: Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro, Brazil
Botafogo
Match Timeline
Vitoria
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
34'
Emmanuel Martínez
Vitoria
🔄
46'
Rene ↔ Renato Kayzer
Vitoria
🔄
46'
Emmanuel Martinez ↔ Caique Goncalves
Vitoria
🔄
66'
L. M. Villalba Jaume ↔ Danilo Santos
Botafogo
🔄
66'
Matheus Martins ↔ L. E. Jales do Nascimento
Botafogo
🔄
66'
Matheuzinho ↔ D. Tarzia
Vitoria
🔄
78'
Ze Vitor ↔ T. Pochettino
Vitoria
🔄
79'
Huguinho ↔ S. Rodriguez
Botafogo
🔄
79'
Vitinho ↔ M. Ponte
Botafogo
🔄
79'
Arthur Cabral ↔ K. Barria
Botafogo
🔄
87'
Erick ↔ Matheusinho
Vitoria
🟨
90+1'
Mateo Ponte
Botafogo

Botafogo vs Vitoria Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.1%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 68.1%
Draw 15.1%
Vitoria Win 16.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.54
Vitoria1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
36 GF / 35 GA
Vitoria Vitoria
WLDWL
22 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
16
BTTS Yes
8
15
Over 2.5
7
4.95
Shots on Goal
4.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 22 matches
Vitoria Vitoria 18 matches
Botafogo Statistic Vitoria
8 Wins 7
5 Draws 4
9 Losses 7
36 Goals For 22
35 Goals Against 25
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
16 BTTS Yes 8
19 Over 1.5 15
15 Over 2.5 7
8 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 4
4.95 Shots On Goal 4.28
12.82 Total Shots 11.17
3.82 Corners 3.89
49.4% Ball Possession 45.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vitoria. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Vitoria in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vitoria having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Botafogo Analysis

So far, Botafogo have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 22 points from 17 matches. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 31:31 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Danilo (7 goals), Matheus Martins (4 goals), with creative support from A. Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Alex Telles (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria sit 13 with 22 points after 17 league matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 21:25 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by Rene (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (3 goals), Baralhas (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Baralhas (3 assists), Luan Candido (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 6 times, Vitoria won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:12 from Botafogo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.9%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Vitoria 4-3-3
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 6, draws 7, Vitoria wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B