Login Register
BRAZIL › SERIE A
07.10.2026 23:30
Estádio Nilton Santos
Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil
Botafogo
Match Timeline
Vasco DA Gama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
28'
Alan Lescano · Assist: Bruno Duarte
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
42'
Bruno Duarte ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
51'
David · Assist: Facundo Colidio
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
57'
Cristian Medina ↔ Júnior Santos
Botafogo
⚽
60'
Alex Telles
Botafogo
🔄
65'
Marino Hinestroza ↔ Adson
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
65'
Alan Lescano ↔ Tchê Tchê
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
69'
Matheus Martins ↔ Kauan Toledo
Botafogo
VAR
74'
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
80'
Arthur Cabral ↔ Tiquinho Soares
Botafogo
🔄
80'
Hakim Ziyech ↔ Kadir Barría
Botafogo
🔄
80'
Vitinho ↔ Mateo Ponte
Botafogo
VAR
84'
Tiquinho Soares
Botafogo
🔄
88'
Facundo Colidio ↔ Nuno Moreira
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
88'
Paulo Henrique ↔ Puma Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
90+7'
Nahuel Ferraresi
Botafogo

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 56.4%
Draw 16.5%
Vasco DA Gama Win 27.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.44
Vasco DA Gama1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
44 GF / 48 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
34 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
20
BTTS Yes
17
18
Over 2.5
16
5.09
Shots on Goal
5.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 32 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 27 matches
Botafogo Statistic Vasco DA Gama
10 Wins 8
9 Draws 7
13 Losses 12
44 Goals For 34
48 Goals Against 41
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
20 BTTS Yes 17
25 Over 1.5 20
18 Over 2.5 16
10 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 8
5.09 Shots On Goal 5.37
14.06 Total Shots 17.81
4.34 Corners 5.7
48.5% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vasco DA Gama.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo are currently 12 in the standings with 35 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 41:45 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenílson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (4 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with J. Barrera, K. Barria, Matheus Martins unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 31 points from 27 matches. The overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats with a 34:41 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Gómez (5 goals), Thiago Mendes (4 goals), David (3 goals), with creative support from J. Rodríguez (3 assists), A. Gómez (2 assists), David (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Mateus Carvalho, Brenner, A. Gomez unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 7 times, Vasco DA Gama won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:14 from Botafogo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-4-2 / Vasco DA Gama 4-3-3
Missing players: Botafogo 3, Vasco DA Gama 4
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 7, draws 3, Vasco DA Gama wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B