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BRAZIL › SERIE A
17.10.2026 21:00
Estádio Nilton Santos
Referee: Raphael Claus

Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.1%
Odds 1.10
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.1%
1.10 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.75 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.57 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.05 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 54.8%
Draw 18.3%
Chapecoense-sc Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.62
Chapecoense-sc1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
46 GF / 51 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
33 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
2.03
22
BTTS Yes
21
19
Over 2.5
18
5
Shots on Goal
3.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 34 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 31 matches
Botafogo Statistic Chapecoense-sc
10 Wins 4
10 Draws 10
14 Losses 17
46 Goals For 33
51 Goals Against 63
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 2.03
22 BTTS Yes 21
27 Over 1.5 28
19 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 2
9 Failed To Score 9
5 Shots On Goal 3.59
14.09 Total Shots 12.9
4.5 Corners 4.03
48.7% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Chapecoense-sc. Chapecoense-sc arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Botafogo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 13 with 35 points compared to Chapecoense-sc in 20 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Botafogo Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Botafogo have collected 35 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses, while the 42:47 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenílson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (4 assists), A. Barboza (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc sit 20 with 18 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 29:57, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Marcinho (5 goals), Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), with creative support from Giovanni Augusto (4 assists), Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Marcinho (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 8 times, Chapecoense-sc won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:10 from Botafogo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.85 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.7%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Botafogo 5, Chapecoense-sc 6
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 8, draws 1, Chapecoense-sc wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B