BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Santa Cruz
Referee: B. Vasconcelos
Botafogo SP
Match Timeline
Athletic Club
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Gabriel Inocêncio
Botafogo SP
🟨
35'
Matheus Sales
Botafogo SP
🟨
35'
Rafael Gava
Botafogo SP
37'
Max · Assist: Ian Luccas
Athletic Club
VAR
39'
Max
Athletic Club
🟨
46'
Luan Polli
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
Matheus Sales ↔ Leandro Maciel
Botafogo SP
🔄
46'
Guilherme Queiroz ↔ Ze Hugo
Botafogo SP
49'
Everton Morelli · Assist: Rafael Gava
Botafogo SP
🟨
52'
Everton Morelli
Botafogo SP
🟨
53'
Marcelo Henrique
Athletic Club
VAR
54'
Felipe Vieira
Botafogo SP
56'
Leandro Maciel
Botafogo SP
🔄
63'
Jota ↔ Gabriel Moyses
Athletic Club
69'
Diogo Batista · Assist: Ian Luccas
Athletic Club
🔄
72'
Marcelo Henrique ↔ Zeca
Athletic Club
🔄
72'
D. Vera ↔ G. Cabezas
Athletic Club
🔄
75'
Rafael Gava ↔ Marco Antonio
Botafogo SP
🔄
75'
Felipe Vieira ↔ Pedro Henrique
Botafogo SP
🔄
78'
Kelvin ↔ Arthur Caike
Botafogo SP
🔄
80'
Max ↔ Bruninho
Athletic Club
🔄
80'
Kauan Rodrigues ↔ Pedro Oliveira
Athletic Club
VAR
90+2'
Wallace
Botafogo SP

Botafogo SP vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo SP Win 39.1%
Draw 20.7%
Athletic Club Win 40.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo SP1.11
Athletic Club1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WWDLW
10 GF / 9 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
10 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
5
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
3
2.89
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 9 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 9 matches
Botafogo SP Statistic Athletic Club
2 Wins 2
3 Draws 5
4 Losses 2
10 Goals For 10
9 Goals Against 10
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
5 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 2
2.89 Shots On Goal 3.67
9.33 Total Shots 9.67
5.56 Corners 3.89
41.9% Ball Possession 42.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Botafogo SP's more proactive style and Athletic Club's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo SP expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Athletic Club in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Athletic Club.

Botafogo SP Analysis

Botafogo SP sit 17 with 9 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 10:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Everton Morelli (5 goals), Hygor (2 goals), Luizão (1 goals), with creative support from Patrick Brey (3 assists), Rafael Gava (2 assists), Everton Morelli (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club sit 14 with 11 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 defeats with a 10:10 goal balance points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they depend heavily on Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Belezi (1 goals), Bruninho (1 goals), with creative support from Belezi (1 assists), Jota (1 assists), Max (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP won 0 times, Athletic Club won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:7 from Botafogo SP's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.3%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo SP 4-2-3-1 / Athletic Club 4-3-3
H2H summary: Botafogo SP wins 0, draws 0, Athletic Club wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
Promotion
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Relegation