ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
09.05.2026 19:00
Toughsheet Community Stadium
Referee: M. Coy
Bolton
Match Timeline
Bradford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
33'
Josh Neufville
Bradford
60'
A. Cozier-Duberry · Assist: I. Cissoko
Bolton
🔄
67'
G. Lapslie ↔ T. Wright
Bradford
🔄
71'
E. Erhahon ↔ X. Simons
Bolton
🔄
80'
K. Jackson ↔ N. Powell
Bradford
🔄
81'
M. Burstow ↔ S. Dalby
Bolton
🔄
81'
R. Rodrigues ↔ J. McAtee
Bolton
🟨
89'
Ibrahim Cissoko
Bolton
🔄
90+5'
I. Cissoko ↔ M. Conway
Bolton

Bolton vs Bradford Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 9.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
9.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bolton Win 41.9%
Draw 19.7%
Bradford Win 38.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bolton1.34
Bradford1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bolton Bolton
WWDLW
72 GF / 57 GA
Bradford Bradford
WLDWL
58 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
30
BTTS Yes
27
24
Over 2.5
24
4.85
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bolton Bolton 48 matches
Bradford Bradford 47 matches
Bolton Statistic Bradford
20 Wins 22
18 Draws 11
10 Losses 14
72 Goals For 58
57 Goals Against 52
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
30 BTTS Yes 27
38 Over 1.5 33
24 Over 2.5 24
13 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 14
11 Failed To Score 9
4.85 Shots On Goal 4
15.98 Total Shots 12.78
6.04 Corners 5.57
56.7% Ball Possession 50.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Bolton had more of the ball in the first leg (55% possession compared to 45%). Bolton were also more accurate in attack, recording 3 shots on target to 2. Bolton also attempted more passes (345 to 284) and completed 224. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Bradford. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bolton expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bradford in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bradford having the stronger overall control.

Bolton Analysis

Bolton come into this tie placed 5 in their league with 75 points from 46 matches. Their record of 19 wins, 18 draws, and 9 defeats with goals at 70:52 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on M. Burstow (12 goals), S. Dalby (10 goals), A. Cozier-Duberry (8 goals), with creative support from A. Cozier-Duberry (10 assists), M. Burstow (5 assists), S. Dalby (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 13 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Bradford Analysis

Bradford enter this tie with a season profile built on 77 points from 46 matches, placing them 4 in their league. With 22 wins, 11 draws, and 13 losses plus a goal ratio of 58:51, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on A. Sarcevic (11 goals), B. Pointon (10 goals), S. Humphrys (7 goals), with creative support from Josh Neufville (7 assists), Max Power (5 assists), A. Sarcevic (3 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Bolton won 4 times, Bradford won 1 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:7 from Bolton's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: Bolton 4-2-3-1 / Bradford 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Bolton wins 4, draws 6, Bradford wins 1

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two