RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Rostec Arena
Referee: N. Novikov
Baltika
Match Timeline
Dynamo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
Arthur Gomes · Assist: D. Fomin
Dynamo
🟨
27'
Aymane Mourid
Baltika
🔄
46'
A. Mourid ↔ T. Yenne
Baltika
🔄
46'
Y. Kovalev ↔ E. Civic
Baltika
🟨
50'
Tenton Yenne
Baltika
55'
Derik Lacerda · Assist: E. Civic
Baltika
🔄
58'
N. Moumi Ngamaleu ↔ Y. Gladyshev
Dynamo
🟨
61'
Ivan Belikov
Baltika
🔄
64'
V. Okishor ↔ U. Babaev
Dynamo
🔄
67'
Derik Lacerda ↔ C. Offor
Baltika
🔄
67'
I. Belikov ↔ A. Mendel
Baltika
71'
K. Tyukavin
Dynamo
🔄
74'
N. Gassama ↔ M. Ryadno
Baltika
🟨
78'
Timofey Marinkin
Dynamo
🟨
80'
Andrey Mendel
Baltika
🔄
86'
K. Tyukavin ↔ Rubens
Dynamo
🔄
86'
D. Fomin ↔ D. Aleksandrov
Dynamo
🟨
90+2'
Nicolás Marichal
Dynamo
🟨
90+2'
Rubens
Dynamo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Baltika Win 42%
Draw 0%
Dynamo Win 58%
Expected Goals (xG)
Baltika1.3
Dynamo1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Baltika Baltika
WWDLW
37 GF / 19 GA
Dynamo Dynamo
WLDWL
49 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.69
0.66
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
10
BTTS Yes
19
7
Over 2.5
17
4
Shots on Goal
4.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Baltika Baltika 29 matches
Dynamo Dynamo 29 matches
Baltika Statistic Dynamo
11 Wins 11
13 Draws 9
5 Losses 9
37 Goals For 49
19 Goals Against 39
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
0.66 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
10 BTTS Yes 19
18 Over 1.5 23
7 Over 2.5 17
5 Over 3.5 11
14 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 4.76
12.34 Total Shots 15.34
3.41 Corners 5.45
46.4% Ball Possession 54.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Dynamo. Baltika have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Baltika expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Dynamo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dynamo having the stronger overall control.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 46 points from 29 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 13 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 37:19, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through B. Gil (13 goals), Maksim Petrov (7 goals), C. Offor (3 goals), with creative support from Ilya Petrov (4 assists), Ivan Belikov (3 assists), Nathan Gassama (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Dynamo Analysis

So far, Dynamo have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 42 points from 29 matches. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 49:39 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Sergeev (9 goals), K. Tyukavin (8 goals), Bitello (7 goals), with creative support from Bitello (8 assists), J. Caceres (6 assists), K. Tyukavin (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Baltika won 2 times, Dynamo won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:14 from Baltika's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.89 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Baltika 5-4-1 / Dynamo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Baltika 3, Dynamo 4
H2H summary: Baltika wins 2, draws 2, Dynamo wins 5
Stats
Baltika Baltika
Dynamo Dynamo
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
9
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 2
24 Fouls 8
5 Offsides 0
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Goal 4
3 Shots off Goal 1
9 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 4
9 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
318 Total passes 362
210 Passes accurate 250
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Baltika
Formation
Dynamo
E. Lyubakov
E. Lyubakov
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov
E. Anderson
E. Anderson
N. Gassama
N. Gassama
Y. Kovalev
Y. Kovalev
A. Mourid
A. Mourid
I. Belikov
I. Belikov
M. Beveev
M. Beveev
M. Petrov
M. Petrov
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda
N. Titkov
N. Titkov
A. Lunev
A. Lunev
L. Zaydenzal
L. Zaydenzal
N. Marichal
N. Marichal
David Ricardo
David Ricardo
D. Skopintsev
D. Skopintsev
D. Fomin
🎯
D. Fomin
T. Marinkin
T. Marinkin
N. Moumi Ngamaleu
N. Moumi Ngamaleu
V. Okishor
V. Okishor
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin
Baltika 3-4-3
Starting XI
44
E. Lyubakov
G
2
S. Varatynov
D
21
E. Anderson
D
4
N. Gassama
↓ 74'
D
11
Y. Kovalev
↓ 46'
M
5
A. Mourid
↓ 46' 🟨 27'
M
26
I. Belikov
↓ 67' 🟨 61'
M
23
M. Beveev
M
73
M. Petrov
F
18
Derik Lacerda
⚽ 55' ↓ 67'
F
22
N. Titkov
F
Substitutes
81
I. Kukushkin
G
14
S. Kovac
M
90
C. Offor
↑ 67'
F
15
T. Yenne
↑ 46' 🟨 50'
F
42
V. Pospelov
M
77
E. Civic
🎯 55' ↑ 46'
D
10
I. Petrov
M
8
A. Mendel
↑ 67' 🟨 80'
M
69
I. Manelov
F
39
K. Stepanov
F
68
M. Ryadno
↑ 74'
D
46
K. Obonin
D
Dynamo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
A. Lunev
G
56
L. Zaydenzal
D
2
N. Marichal
🟨 90+2'
D
57
David Ricardo
D
7
D. Skopintsev
D
74
D. Fomin
🎯 8' ↓ 86'
M
60
T. Marinkin
🟨 78'
M
13
N. Moumi Ngamaleu
↓ 58'
M
88
V. Okishor
↓ 64'
M
11
Arthur Gomes
⚽ 8'
M
70
K. Tyukavin
⚽ 71' ↓ 86'
F
Substitutes
31
I. Leshchuk
G
21
A. Miranchuk
M
19
B. Zaynutdinov
M
91
Y. Gladyshev
↑ 58'
F
17
U. Babaev
↑ 64'
F
50
A. Kutitsky
M
44
Rubens
↑ 86' 🟨 90+2'
D
5
M. Majstorovic
D
30
D. Aleksandrov
↑ 86'
M
Last matches: Baltika
24.07.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
6
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
5
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Akron
1
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Volga Ulyanovsk
3
0
W
10.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akron
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akhmat
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
1
1
D
27.02.26
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
1
L
22.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Akhmat
2
2
D
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Kaisar
2
1
W
Last matches: Dynamo
25.07.26
Pre
Dynamo
Krylia Sovetov
0
0
D
18.07.26
Fri
Dynamo
CSKA Moscow
5
2
W
18.07.26
Fri
Dynamo
Akron
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Dynamo
Dinamo Moskva II
10
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Dynamo
FC Orenburg
2
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Dynamo
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Dynamo
Torpedo Moskva
0
2
L
11.05.26
Pre
Dynamo
FC Krasnodar
2
1
W
01.05.26
Pre
Dynamo
Lokomotiv
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pre
Dynamo
FC Sochi
2
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
Dynamo
Rubin
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pre
Dynamo
Nizhny Novgorod
1
1
D
13.04.26
Pre
Dynamo
Akron
3
2
W
04.04.26
Pre
Dynamo
FC Orenburg
3
3
D
22.03.26
Pre
Dynamo
Zenit
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Dynamo
FC Rostov
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pre
Dynamo
CSKA Moscow
4
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Dynamo
Krylia Sovetov
4
0
W
16.02.26
Fri
Dynamo
Ural
1
2
L
10.02.26
Fri
Dynamo
FC Krasnodar
1
0
W
H2H: Baltika vs Dynamo
17.05.26
H2H
Baltika
Dynamo
1
2
L
18.07.25
H2H
Dynamo
Baltika
1
1
D
11.05.24
H2H
Baltika
Dinamo Moscow
2
3
L
23.02.24
H2H
Dynamo
Baltika
0
3
W
23.02.24
H2H
Baltika
Dynamo
3
0
W
13.08.23
H2H
Dinamo Moscow
Baltika
2
0
L
19.04.22
H2H
Baltika
Dinamo Moscow
1
1
D
13.11.16
H2H
Baltika
Dinamo Moscow
0
3
L
27.07.16
H2H
Dinamo Moscow
Baltika
2
1
L
Last matches: Baltika
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Volga Ulyanovsk
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akron
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Akhmat
2
2
D
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Kaisar
2
1
W
12.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Fakel
1
0
W
05.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Ordabasy
0
0
D
25.01.26
Fri
Baltika
Surkhon
2
3
L
07.12.25
Pre
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
2
0
W
29.11.25
Pre
Baltika
Spartak Moscow
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
02.11.25
Pre
Baltika
Akhmat
2
0
W
05.10.25
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
0
D
16.08.25
Pre
Baltika
Lokomotiv
1
1
D
03.08.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Orenburg
3
2
W
H2H at home: Baltika
17.05.26
H2H
Baltika
Dynamo
1
2
L
11.05.24
H2H
Baltika
Dinamo Moscow
2
3
L
23.02.24
H2H
Baltika
Dynamo
3
0
W
19.04.22
H2H
Baltika
Dinamo Moscow
1
1
D
13.11.16
H2H
Baltika
Dinamo Moscow
0
3
L
Last matches: Dynamo
18.07.26
Fri
Dynamo
Akron
1
0
W
01.05.26
Pre
Dynamo
Lokomotiv
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Dynamo
Nizhny Novgorod
1
1
D
13.04.26
Pre
Dynamo
Akron
3
2
W
14.03.26
Pre
Dynamo
FC Rostov
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pre
Dynamo
CSKA Moscow
4
1
W
16.02.26
Fri
Dynamo
Ural
1
2
L
06.02.26
Fri
Dynamo
CSKA Moscow
1
1
D
03.02.26
Fri
Dynamo
Zenit
1
2
L
06.12.25
Pre
Dynamo
Spartak Moscow
1
1
D
30.11.25
Pre
Dynamo
Akhmat
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
Dynamo
Rubin
0
0
D
26.10.25
Pre
Dynamo
Zenit
1
2
L
26.09.25
Pre
Dynamo
Krylia Sovetov
3
2
W
21.09.25
Pre
Dynamo
FC Orenburg
3
1
W
31.08.25
Pre
Dynamo
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
1
L
10.08.25
Pre
Dynamo
FC Sochi
1
1
D
02.08.25
Pre
Dynamo
FC Krasnodar
0
1
L
H2H away: Dynamo
17.05.26
H2H
Baltika
Dynamo
1
2
W
23.02.24
H2H
Baltika
Dynamo
3
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Baltika 3 missing
-
M. Borisko
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
A. Filin
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
K. Andrade
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
Dynamo 4 missing
-
B. Zaynutdinov
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Osipenko
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Rubens
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
I. Sergeev
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT