Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
77.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
76.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
70.6%
|
- |
Bahia
Santos
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Bahia
13 matches
Santos
12 matches
| Bahia | Statistic | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 3 |
| 2 | Draws | 4 |
| 4 | Losses | 5 |
| 17 | Goals For | 16 |
| 14 | Goals Against | 19 |
| 1.31 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.33 |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.58 |
| 7 | BTTS Yes | 9 |
| 10 | Over 1.5 | 10 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 1 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 2 | Failed To Score | 1 |
| 4.85 | Shots On Goal | 3.08 |
| 12.08 | Total Shots | 12.25 |
| 5 | Corners | 5.58 |
| 54% | Ball Possession | 48.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Bahia's more proactive style and Santos's more cautious structure. Santos seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Santos. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 20 points compared to Santos in 15 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Bahia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Santos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santos having the stronger overall control.
Bahia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 20 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 15:10 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Luciano Juba (4 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), David Duarte (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Everton Ribeiro (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Ruan Pablo, Ronaldo Strada unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Santos sit 15 with 13 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats with a 14:16 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gabriel Barbosa (4 goals), Neymar (3 goals), A. Barreal (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Moises (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Vinicius Lira, Gabriel Barbosa, Gabriel Menino, Igor Vinicius, Gustavo Henrique, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 4 times, Santos won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from Bahia's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.
Bahia
5
5
7
4
6
2
Lineups
Bahia
Botafogo
Bahia
Coritiba
Bahia
Gremio
Bahia
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Flamengo
Bahia
Mirassol
Bahia
Palmeiras
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
Remo
Bahia
RB Bragantino
Bahia
Internacional
Bahia
Vitoria
Bahia
O'Higgins
Bahia
O'Higgins
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
Fluminense
Bahia
Corinthians
Santos
Vitoria
Santos
Gremio
Santos
Coritiba
Santos
RB Bragantino
Santos
Palmeiras
Santos
Fluminense
Santos
Atletico-MG
Santos
Flamengo
Santos
Remo
Santos
Cruzeiro
Santos
Internacional
Santos
Corinthians
Santos
Mirassol
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
Sao Paulo
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Botafogo
Bahia
Gremio
Bahia
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Palmeiras
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
RB Bragantino
Bahia
Vitoria
Bahia
O'Higgins
Bahia
Fluminense
Santos
Gremio
Santos
Palmeiras
Santos
Flamengo
Santos
Cruzeiro
Santos
Mirassol
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30:13 | 17 | 41 |
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| 2 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31:16 | 15 | 34 |
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| 3 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 31 |
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| 4 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24:18 | 6 | 30 |
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| 5 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25:19 | 6 | 29 |
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| 6 |
Bahia
Home
|
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 2 | 26 |
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| 7 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24:24 | 0 | 26 |
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| 8 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23:20 | 3 | 25 |
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| 9 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22:23 | -1 | 24 |
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| 10 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 24 |
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| 11 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | -4 | 24 |
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| 12 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31:31 | 0 | 22 |
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| 13 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21:25 | -4 | 22 |
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| 14 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21:22 | -1 | 21 |
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| 15 |
Santos
Away
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18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26:29 | -3 | 21 |
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| 16 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20:23 | -3 | 21 |
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| 17 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22:29 | -7 | 20 |
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| 18 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21:29 | -8 | 18 |
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| 19 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
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| 20 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17:33 | -16 | 9 |
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