BRAZIL SERIE A
25.04.2026 21:30
Arena Fonte Nova
Referee: R. Abatti
Bahia
Match Timeline
Santos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Erick Pulga
Bahia
VAR
20'
Gabriel Bontempo
Santos
22'
B. Rollheiser
Santos
VAR
45+2'
Thaciano
Santos
45'
B. Rollheiser
Santos
🔄
46'
Michel Araujo ↔ Everton Ribeiro
Bahia
🔄
46'
Gabriel Xavier ↔ Gilberto
Bahia
🟨
53'
Diogenes
Santos
🟨
59'
Santiago Ramos Mingo
Bahia
🔄
65'
Thaciano ↔ L. Diaz
Santos
🔄
65'
B. Rollheiser ↔ Miguelito
Santos
🟨
72'
Miguelito
Santos
🔄
72'
C. Olivera ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🔄
72'
Caio Alexandre ↔ Erick
Bahia
76'
Luciano Juba
Bahia
🔄
80'
Rony ↔ Moises
Santos
🔄
81'
Gabriel Bontempo ↔ T. Rincon
Santos
🟨
82'
Mayke
Santos
83'
Willian Jose · Assist: Erick Pulga
Bahia
🟨
89'
Gonzalo Escobar
Santos
🔄
89'
Joao Schmidt ↔ Luan Peres
Santos
🟨
90+6'
Everton Ribeiro
Bahia
🔄
90+2'
Erick Pulga ↔ Ademir
Bahia

Bahia vs Santos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 77.4%
Draw 6%
Santos Win 16.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.42
Santos1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia Bahia
WWDLW
17 GF / 14 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
16 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
7
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
7
4.85
Shots on Goal
3.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bahia Bahia 13 matches
Santos Santos 12 matches
Bahia Statistic Santos
7 Wins 3
2 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
17 Goals For 16
14 Goals Against 19
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
7 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 7
1 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
4.85 Shots On Goal 3.08
12.08 Total Shots 12.25
5 Corners 5.58
54% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Bahia's more proactive style and Santos's more cautious structure. Santos seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Santos. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 20 points compared to Santos in 15 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Bahia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Santos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santos having the stronger overall control.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 20 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 15:10 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Luciano Juba (4 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), David Duarte (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Everton Ribeiro (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Ruan Pablo, Ronaldo Strada unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 15 with 13 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats with a 14:16 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gabriel Barbosa (4 goals), Neymar (3 goals), A. Barreal (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Moises (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Vinicius Lira, Gabriel Barbosa, Gabriel Menino, Igor Vinicius, Gustavo Henrique, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 4 times, Santos won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from Bahia's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
Predicted formations: Bahia 4-3-3 / Santos 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Bahia 3, Santos 10
H2H summary: Bahia wins 4, draws 5, Santos wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5
Bahia Home
25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 25 10 7 8 33:33 0 37
W W D W L
8 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
9 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 25 5 8 12 30:42 -12 23
L L D D L
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B