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BRAZIL › SERIE A
11.10.2026 22:30
Arena Fonte Nova
Referee: Ramon Abatti
Bahia
Live Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
11'
Marcos Victor
Bahia
VAR
34'
Cristian Olivera
Bahia
🟨
35'
Chico Kim
Mirassol
🟨
36'
Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune
Mirassol
⚽
38'
Luciano
Bahia
🔄
45'
Chico Kim ↔ Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve
Mirassol
🔄
45'
Alesson dos Santos Batista ↔ Edson Carioca
Mirassol
🔄
45'
Gustavo Henric da Silva ↔ Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo
Mirassol

Bahia vs Mirassol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.2%
Odds 1.69
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.2%
1.69 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.68 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.10 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 60.2%
Draw 6.6%
Mirassol Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.39
Mirassol1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia Bahia
WWDLW
49 GF / 41 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
46 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
21
BTTS Yes
22
17
Over 2.5
17
4.68
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bahia Bahia 33 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 38 matches
Bahia Statistic Mirassol
14 Wins 13
10 Draws 11
9 Losses 14
49 Goals For 46
41 Goals Against 48
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
21 BTTS Yes 22
27 Over 1.5 28
17 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 10
4.68 Shots On Goal 4.24
14.13 Total Shots 12.95
5.52 Corners 5.19
55.5% Ball Possession 49.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Bahia's more proactive style and Mirassol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Mirassol. Bahia come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 46 points compared to Mirassol in 15 on 32, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Mirassol in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mirassol having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Bahia Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 46 points from 28 games, Bahia bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 12 wins, 10 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 43:35, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Luciano Juba (8 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), Jean Lucas (3 goals), with creative support from Éverton Ribeiro (4 assists), Rodrigo Nestor (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 32 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats with a 33:42 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Eduardo (5 goals), Igor Formiga (4 goals), Edson (3 goals), with creative support from Igor Formiga (5 assists), Reinaldo (4 assists), Alesson (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 1 times, Mirassol won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:7 from Bahia's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Bahia 4-3-3 / Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Bahia 2, Mirassol 3
H2H summary: Bahia wins 1, draws 1, Mirassol wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 29 17 9 3 48:21 27 60
W D W D D
3 29 14 9 6 48:36 12 51
W W L W D
4 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
5 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
6
Bahia Home
29 12 10 7 43:36 7 46
L L W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
10 29 10 8 11 37:47 -10 38
L L D L W
11 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B