Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
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| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 0%
Draw 0%
Atletico-MG Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.39
Atletico-MG1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia
WWDLW
34 GF / 29 GA
Atletico-MG
WLDWL
23 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
15
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
8
4.76
Shots on Goal
4.26
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Bahia
23 matches
Atletico-MG
19 matches
| Bahia | Statistic | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wins | 7 |
| 6 | Draws | 4 |
| 7 | Losses | 8 |
| 34 | Goals For | 23 |
| 29 | Goals Against | 24 |
| 1.48 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.21 |
| 1.26 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.26 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 8 |
| 20 | Over 1.5 | 12 |
| 12 | Over 2.5 | 8 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 4.76 | Shots On Goal | 4.26 |
| 13.1 | Total Shots | 12.84 |
| 5.67 | Corners | 4.63 |
| 53.5% | Ball Possession | 45.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 6 times, Atletico-MG won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Bahia's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Bahia 4-3-3 / Atletico-MG 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Bahia wins 6, draws 4, Atletico-MG wins 5
Last matches: Bahia
21.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Fluminense
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
Last matches: Atletico-MG
21.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
H2H: Bahia vs Atletico-MG
21.07.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
05.11.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bahia
3
0
L
13.07.25
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
15.09.24
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
3
0
W
02.06.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
07.12.23
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
4
1
W
13.08.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
0
L
02.12.21
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
3
L
05.08.21
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
29.07.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bahia
2
0
L
25.07.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bahia
3
0
L
13.02.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
19.10.20
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
3
1
W
28.11.19
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
24.08.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bahia
0
1
W
Last matches: Bahia
17.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bahia
13.07.25
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
15.09.24
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
3
0
W
07.12.23
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
4
1
W
02.12.21
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
3
L
05.08.21
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
19.10.20
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
3
1
W
28.11.19
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico-MG
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H away: Atletico-MG
13.07.25
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
1
L
15.09.24
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
3
0
L
07.12.23
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
4
1
L
02.12.21
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
3
W
05.08.21
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
2
1
L
19.10.20
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
3
1
L
28.11.19
H2H
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
Standings
Serie A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33:14 | 19 | 44 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 2 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35:16 | 19 | 37 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26:19 | 7 | 33 |
W
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 4 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:24 | 5 | 32 |
D
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26:20 | 6 | 30 |
D
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 6 |
Bahia
Home
|
19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28:24 | 4 | 30 |
D
W
W
L
D
|
| 7 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | -3 | 27 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 25:27 | -2 | 26 |
L
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24:22 | 2 | 25 |
L
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 33:32 | 1 | 25 |
W
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 11 |
Atletico-MG
Away
|
19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23:24 | -1 | 25 |
D
W
L
W
D
|
| 12 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22:25 | -3 | 25 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 24 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22:24 | -2 | 21 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27:31 | -4 | 21 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 16 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21:25 | -4 | 21 |
L
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22:30 | -8 | 20 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 18 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20:25 | -5 | 19 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21:29 | -8 | 18 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 20 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 17:39 | -22 | 9 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B