ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro
Referee: Alvaro Caranza, Argentina
Atletico Tucuman
Match Timeline
Independ. Rivadavia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
55'
Iván Villalba
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
64'
L. Bucca ↔ G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
69'
R. Paunero ↔ L. Di Placido
Atletico Tucuman
🔄
76'
F. Sartori ↔ L. Sequeira
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
76'
I. Villalba ↔ T. Bottari
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
81'
N. Lamendola ↔ R. Ruiz
Atletico Tucuman
🔄
81'
N. Franco ↔ F. Pimienta
Atletico Tucuman
🔄
87'
M. Fernandez ↔ R. Atencio
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
87'
L. Gomez ↔ A. Riep
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
88'
Alex Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
90+4'
Leonel Vega
Atletico Tucuman
🔄
90+5'
L. Godoy ↔ K. Ortiz
Atletico Tucuman

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.3%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.3%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Tucuman Win 30.6%
Draw 11.2%
Independ. Rivadavia Win 58.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Tucuman1.03
Independ. Rivadavia1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman
WWDLW
20 GF / 21 GA
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WLDWL
48 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.92
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
10
BTTS Yes
17
10
Over 2.5
13
3.5
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman 18 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 25 matches
Atletico Tucuman Statistic Independ. Rivadavia
5 Wins 17
5 Draws 5
8 Losses 3
20 Goals For 48
21 Goals Against 23
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
10 BTTS Yes 17
13 Over 1.5 20
10 Over 2.5 13
2 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 2
3.5 Shots On Goal 5
12.19 Total Shots 13.78
4.75 Corners 4.26
46.5% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Independ. Rivadavia's more proactive style and Atletico Tucuman's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independ. Rivadavia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 34 points while Atletico Tucuman sit 13 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independ. Rivadavia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atletico Tucuman Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Atletico Tucuman have collected 14 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 15:20 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Diaz (5 goals), N. Franco (2 goals), R. Tesuri (2 goals), with creative support from L. Diaz (1 assists), N. Franco (1 assists), R. Tesuri (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 34 points after 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 29:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Sartori (7 goals), A. Osella (4 goals), L. Bucca (4 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Villa (5 assists), R. Atencio (4 assists), M. Fernandez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Tucuman won 4 times, Independ. Rivadavia won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:11 from Atletico Tucuman's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.64 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Tucuman 4-2-3-1 / Independ. Rivadavia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Tucuman wins 4, draws 6, Independ. Rivadavia wins 4

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W D L W L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W D W L L
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
W D L W W
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
L D W W W
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D L W W D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
W L L W W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
D D L W D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L D L L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
L L L W W
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
W D W D W
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L W W W W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
L L W L D
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D D W L D
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L D L L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
D D L L D
Knockout Phase