BRAZIL SERIE A
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Arena da Baixada

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.6%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 57.6%
Draw 7.9%
RB Bragantino Win 34.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.16
RB Bragantino1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
29 GF / 22 GA
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
WLDWL
28 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1
11
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
9
4.52
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 23 matches
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 21 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic RB Bragantino
11 Wins 10
4 Draws 4
8 Losses 7
29 Goals For 28
22 Goals Against 21
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1
11 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 5
4.52 Shots On Goal 5
11.9 Total Shots 16
4.81 Corners 5.6
47.5% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and RB Bragantino in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward RB Bragantino having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Atletico Paranaense come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors RB Bragantino.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 37 points from 21 games, Atletico Paranaense bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 11 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 28:19, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Viveros (12 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), João Cruz (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

RB Bragantino Analysis

RB Bragantino sit 6 with 31 points after 20 league matches. The record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:20 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Isidro Pitta (6 goals), Lucas Barbosa (4 goals), Juninho Capixaba (2 goals), with creative support from Henry Mosquera (3 assists), Isidro Pitta (2 assists), Lucas Barbosa (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 6 times, RB Bragantino won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:20 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 6, draws 4, RB Bragantino wins 5
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
30.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
0
D
25.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
2
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
09.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
Last matches: RB Bragantino
26.07.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Coritiba
0
0
D
17.07.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Fluminense
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Internacional
3
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Vitoria
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Santos
0
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Palmeiras
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Remo
4
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Mirassol
1
0
W
03.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Flamengo
3
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Botafogo
1
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Bahia
0
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
13.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Gremio
1
1
D
25.02.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Corinthians
0
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
H2H: Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino
11.07.26
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
25.02.26
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
05.12.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
07.08.24
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
2
3
W
31.07.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
21.07.24
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
08.10.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
20.05.23
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
L
22.10.22
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
4
2
L
25.06.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
4
2
W
20.11.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
0
W
07.11.21
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
W
10.07.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
2
2
D
20.12.20
H2H
Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
W
02.09.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Bragantino
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
25.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
H2H at home: Atletico Paranaense
05.12.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
31.07.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
08.10.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
25.06.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
4
2
W
20.11.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
0
W
10.07.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
2
2
D
02.09.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Bragantino
1
1
D
Last matches: RB Bragantino
17.07.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Fluminense
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Santos
0
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Bahia
0
2
L
13.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Gremio
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Corinthians
0
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Coritiba
1
0
W
H2H away: RB Bragantino
05.12.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
W
31.07.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
2
0
L
08.10.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
25.06.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
4
2
L
20.11.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
0
L
10.07.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
2
2
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 21 11 4 6 28:19 9 37
D W W W W
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 21 8 6 7 27:30 -3 30
W L W D W
8 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
9 21 7 8 6 22:20 2 29
D D W W W
10 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
11 21 7 6 8 25:28 -3 27
L D L L W
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
D L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B