BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena da Baixada
Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein, Brazil
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
S. Mendoza · Assist: G. Benavidez
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
25'
Jorge Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
28'
Leo Derik ↔ Claudinho
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
40'
Felipinho
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
56'
Jádson
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
59'
S. Niguez ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
59'
Samuel Lino ↔ Everton
Flamengo
🔄
65'
L. Esquivel ↔ Gilberto Junior
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
65'
B. Zapelli ↔ Joao Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
70'
Danilo
Flamengo
🔄
82'
Leo Ortiz ↔ Emerson Royal
Flamengo
84'
Pedro · Assist: Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🟨
90+2'
Danilo
Flamengo
🟥
90+2'
Danilo
Flamengo
🔄
90+5'
Felipinho ↔ Renan Peixoto
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
90+3'
J. Carrascal ↔ Ayrton Lucas
Flamengo
🔄
90+3'
Pedro ↔ Vitao
Flamengo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.8%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 42.6%
Draw 10%
Flamengo Win 47.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.13
Flamengo1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
20 GF / 16 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
34 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
2
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
7
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
10
4.73
Shots on Goal
5.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 15 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 17 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Flamengo
7 Wins 11
2 Draws 4
6 Losses 2
20 Goals For 34
16 Goals Against 14
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
7 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 1
4.73 Shots On Goal 5.53
11.53 Total Shots 14.65
4.53 Corners 4.06
48.7% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Flamengo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Flamengo having the stronger overall control. Flamengo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 30 points while Atletico Paranaense sit 5 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Flamengo.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Placed 5 with 23 points from 15 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, while the 20:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Viveros (8 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from G. Benavidez (4 assists), L. Esquivel (3 assists), Joao Cruz (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Flamengo Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 30 points from 14 games, Flamengo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 27:12, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Pedro (8 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (3 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (5 assists), Pedro (3 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 4 times, Flamengo won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:19 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico Paranaense 4, Flamengo 7
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 4, draws 5, Flamengo wins 6
Stats
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo Flamengo
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
4
9 Corner Kicks 7
9 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 0
36% Ball Possession 64%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 5
6 Blocked Shots 4
14 Shots insidebox 9
4 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
288 Total passes 533
224 Passes accurate 460
1.01 expected_goals 1.42
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Atletico Paranaense
Formation
Flamengo
Santos
Santos
Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias
F. Aguirre
F. Aguirre
L. Esquivel
L. Esquivel
G. Benavidez
🎯
G. Benavidez
Jadson
Jadson
Felipinho
Felipinho
B. Zapelli
B. Zapelli
Leo Derik
Leo Derik
S. Mendoza
S. Mendoza
K. Viveros
K. Viveros
A. Rossi
A. Rossi
G. Varela
G. Varela
Danilo
Danilo
Leo Pereira
Leo Pereira
Alex Sandro
Alex Sandro
Leo Ortiz
Leo Ortiz
S. Niguez
S. Niguez
J. Carrascal
J. Carrascal
Lucas Paqueta
Lucas Paqueta
Samuel Lino
Samuel Lino
Pedro
Pedro
Atletico Paranaense 3-5-2
Starting XI
23
Santos
G
4
Arthur Dias
D
33
F. Aguirre
D
37
L. Esquivel
↓ 65'
D
29
G. Benavidez
🎯 11'
M
16
Jadson
🟨 56'
M
5
Felipinho
↓ 90+5' 🟨 40'
M
10
B. Zapelli
↓ 65'
M
6
Leo Derik
↓ 28'
7
S. Mendoza
⚽ 11'
F
9
K. Viveros
F
Substitutes
1
Mycael
G
42
Mateus Soares
11
Isaac
47
Chiqueti
M
3
Leo
D
70
Renan Peixoto
↑ 90+5'
F
2
Gilberto Junior
↑ 65'
53
Dudu Kogitzki
M
21
Leozinho
F
26
Claudinho
↑ 28'
D
8
Joao Cruz
↑ 65'
63
Diogo Riquelme
M
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Rossi
G
2
G. Varela
D
13
Danilo
🟨 70' 🟨 90+2' 🟥 90+2'
D
4
Leo Pereira
D
26
Alex Sandro
D
3
Leo Ortiz
↓ 82'
M
8
S. Niguez
↓ 59'
M
15
J. Carrascal
↓ 90+3' 🟨 25'
M
20
Lucas Paqueta
M
16
Samuel Lino
↓ 59'
M
9
Pedro
⚽ 84' ↓ 90+3'
F
Substitutes
42
A. da Silva Ventura
G
49
Dyogo Alves
G
27
Bruno Henrique
🎯 84' ↑ 59'
F
6
Ayrton Lucas
↑ 90+3'
D
22
Emerson Royal
↑ 82'
D
44
Vitao
↑ 90+3'
D
64
Wallace Yan
F
11
Everton
↑ 59'
F
75
L. Mariano
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
1
0
W
Last matches: Flamengo
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Gremio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
30.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
W
17.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Independiente Medellin
4
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Fluminense
2
1
W
09.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Santos
3
1
W
03.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Corinthians
1
1
D
19.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Remo
3
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Botafogo
3
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
1
W
04.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
H2H: Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo
17.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
29.09.24
H2H
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
16.06.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
14.09.23
H2H
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
0
3
W
13.07.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
0
2
L
06.07.23
H2H
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
07.05.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
1
W
29.10.22
H2H
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
18.08.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
0
1
L
14.08.22
H2H
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
5
0
L
28.07.22
H2H
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
23.04.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
0
W
02.11.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
2
D
28.10.21
H2H
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
0
3
W
21.10.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
2
D
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
H2H at home: Atletico Paranaense
17.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
16.06.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
13.07.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
0
2
L
07.05.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
1
W
18.08.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
0
1
L
23.04.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
0
W
02.11.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
2
D
21.10.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
2
D
Last matches: Flamengo
10.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Gremio
1
0
W
30.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Fluminense
2
1
W
09.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
2
0
W
03.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Corinthians
1
1
D
14.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Botafogo
3
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
1
W
29.01.26
Ser
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
H2H away: Flamengo
17.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
16.06.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
13.07.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
0
2
W
07.05.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
1
L
18.08.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
0
1
W
23.04.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
0
L
02.11.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
2
D
21.10.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
2
2
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Atletico Paranaense 4 missing
-
Luiz Gustavo
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
C. Teran
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
Julimar
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
J. Portilla
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Flamengo 7 missing
-
Evertton Araujo
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
E. Pulgar
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
Jorginho
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
G. de Arrascaeta
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
N. de la Cruz
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Luiz Araujo
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
G. Plata
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT