BRAZIL › SERIE A
17.05.2026 22:30
Arena da Baixada
Referee: R. Klein
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
S. Mendoza · Assist: G. Benavidez
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
25'
Jorge Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
28'
Leo Derik ↔ Claudinho
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
40'
Felipinho
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
56'
Jádson
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
59'
S. Niguez ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
59'
Samuel Lino ↔ Everton
Flamengo
🔄
65'
L. Esquivel ↔ Gilberto Junior
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
65'
B. Zapelli ↔ Joao Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
70'
Danilo
Flamengo
🔄
82'
Leo Ortiz ↔ Emerson Royal
Flamengo
⚽
84'
Pedro · Assist: Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🟨
90+2'
Danilo
Flamengo
🟥
90+2'
Danilo
Flamengo
🔄
90+5'
Felipinho ↔ Renan Peixoto
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
90+3'
J. Carrascal ↔ Ayrton Lucas
Flamengo
🔄
90+3'
Pedro ↔ Vitao
Flamengo

Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 42.6%
Draw 10%
Flamengo Win 47.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.13
Flamengo1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
20 GF / 16 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
34 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
2
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
7
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
10
4.73
Shots on Goal
5.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 15 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 17 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Flamengo
7 Wins 11
2 Draws 4
6 Losses 2
20 Goals For 34
16 Goals Against 14
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
7 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 1
4.73 Shots On Goal 5.53
11.53 Total Shots 14.65
4.53 Corners 4.06
48.7% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Flamengo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Flamengo having the stronger overall control. Flamengo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 30 points while Atletico Paranaense sit 5 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Flamengo.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Placed 5 with 23 points from 15 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, while the 20:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Viveros (8 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from G. Benavidez (4 assists), L. Esquivel (3 assists), Joao Cruz (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Flamengo Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 30 points from 14 games, Flamengo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 27:12, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Pedro (8 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (3 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (5 assists), Pedro (3 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 4 times, Flamengo won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:19 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico Paranaense 4, Flamengo 7
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 4, draws 5, Flamengo wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B