Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin H2H Stats
Compare football head-to-head records, previous meetings, wins, draws, BTTS and Over 2.5 trends before reading the match prediction.
View today's football H2H statsAtletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
54.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
63.2%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
58.6%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico Nacional
41 matches
Independiente Medellin
44 matches
| Atletico Nacional | Statistic | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wins | 19 |
| 4 | Draws | 10 |
| 11 | Losses | 15 |
| 77 | Goals For | 62 |
| 40 | Goals Against | 57 |
| 1.88 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.41 |
| 0.98 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.3 |
| 20 | BTTS Yes | 29 |
| 32 | Over 1.5 | 34 |
| 26 | Over 2.5 | 26 |
| 10 | Over 3.5 | 12 |
| 12 | Clean Sheets | 9 |
| 11 | Failed To Score | 8 |
| 6.22 | Shots On Goal | 4.52 |
| 16.41 | Total Shots | 13.48 |
| 5.41 | Corners | 4.83 |
| 58.1% | Ball Possession | 49.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Nacional arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 40 points compared to Independiente Medellin in 11 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independiente Medellin. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
Placed 1 with 40 points from 19 outings, Atletico Nacional continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, while the 35:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Morelos (13 goals), A. Sarmiento (10 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), K. Parra (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.
Independiente Medellin sit 11 with 26 points after 19 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 26:24 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Montaño (7 goals), J. Medina (3 goals), D. Cataño (2 goals), with creative support from J. Montaño (4 assists), F. Fabra (4 assists), D. Cataño (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Nacional won 5 times, Independiente Medellin won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:21 from Atletico Nacional's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Atletico Nacional
Home
|
19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | 20 | 40 |
W
D
W
D
L
|
| 2 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | 7 | 35 |
D
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 3 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | 4 | 34 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | 10 | 33 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | 9 | 33 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 6 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | 10 | 31 |
L
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 7 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 7 | 29 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 |
D
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 9 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | 4 | 27 |
D
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | 8 | 26 |
W
D
D
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | 2 | 26 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 12 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 |
W
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | 6 | 23 |
D
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 14 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 |
D
D
D
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 |
D
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 18 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 19 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 |
D
D
L
L
D
|