COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
27.08.2026 01:30
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: S. Bismark
Atletico Nacional
Match Timeline
Deportivo Cali
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
A. Sarmiento · Assist: M. Moreno
Atletico Nacional
🔄
38'
M. Correa ↔ A. Manyoma
Deportivo Cali
🟨
45'
M. Uribe
Atletico Nacional
🔄
46'
F. Alvarez ↔ N. Benedetti
Deportivo Cali
🟨
52'
M. Uribe
Atletico Nacional
🟥
52'
M. Uribe
Atletico Nacional
🟨
53'
E. Cardona
Atletico Nacional
🔄
56'
S. Velasquez ↔ M. Casco
Atletico Nacional
🔄
56'
E. Cardona ↔ F. Marin
Atletico Nacional
🟨
60'
A. Manyoma
Deportivo Cali
64'
M. Moreno · Assist: F. Marin
Atletico Nacional
🔄
65'
A. Hurtado ↔ L. Chaverra
Deportivo Cali
🔄
65'
E. Bello ↔ C. Bacca
Deportivo Cali
🔄
73'
A. Roman ↔ C. Haydar
Atletico Nacional
🔄
73'
A. Morelos ↔ C. Arango
Atletico Nacional
74'
N. Benedetti · Assist: F. Viafara
Deportivo Cali
🔄
80'
A. Sarmiento ↔ I. Poveda
Atletico Nacional
🔄
85'
F. Viafara ↔ J. Martinez
Deportivo Cali
🟨
87'
K. Sandoval
Deportivo Cali
🟨
87'
J. Campuzano
Atletico Nacional
🟨
88'
F. Marin
Atletico Nacional
🟨
90+1'
J. C. Caldera Alvis
Deportivo Cali

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.8%
-
BTTS Yes
53.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Nacional Win 67.8%
Draw 3.7%
Deportivo Cali Win 28.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Nacional1.39
Deportivo Cali1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WWDLW
56 GF / 30 GA
Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali
WLDWL
28 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.81
Average Goals Scored
1.12
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
13
BTTS Yes
9
21
Over 2.5
6
6
Shots on Goal
4.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 31 matches
Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 25 matches
Atletico Nacional Statistic Deportivo Cali
20 Wins 10
1 Draws 8
10 Losses 7
56 Goals For 28
30 Goals Against 19
1.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
13 BTTS Yes 9
23 Over 1.5 15
21 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 3
10 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 8
6 Shots On Goal 4.04
16.32 Total Shots 12.65
5.25 Corners 4.91
56.9% Ball Possession 50.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Nacional expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Deportivo Cali in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Cali having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atletico Nacional arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 40 points compared to Deportivo Cali in 9 on 27, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Deportivo Cali.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 19 matches. The return of 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 35:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Alfredo Morelos (1 goals), Marlos Moreno (1 goals), Andrés Sarmiento (1 goals), with creative support from Alfredo Morelos (1 assists), Matheus Uribe (1 assists), Andrés Román (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Cali Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Deportivo Cali have collected 27 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 20:16 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Steven Rodríguez (2 goals), Johan Martínez (1 goals), Eduard Bello (1 goals), with creative support from Johan Martínez (2 assists), Gustavo Cuéllar (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Nacional won 4 times, Deportivo Cali won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:19 from Atletico Nacional's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Cali 5-3-2
H2H summary: Atletico Nacional wins 4, draws 5, Deportivo Cali wins 5

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification