BRAZIL SERIE A
29.08.2026 21:30
Arena MRV
Referee: Edina Alves Batista
Atletico-MG
Match Timeline
Vitoria
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
25'
T. Borbas · Assist: Reinier
Atletico-MG
🟨
35'
Diego Tarzia
Vitoria
🟨
44'
Ángelo Preciado
Atletico-MG
🔄
46'
E. Britez ↔ Matheusinho
Vitoria
🟨
59'
Mamady Cissé
Atletico-MG
🔄
60'
T. Borbas ↔ Gustavo Scarpa
Atletico-MG
63'
Reinier
Atletico-MG
🔄
69'
D. Tarzia ↔ Matheuzinho
Vitoria
🔄
69'
Emmanuel Martinez ↔ Erick
Vitoria
🔄
69'
Alex Bruno ↔ Rene
Vitoria
🔄
75'
A. Minda ↔ Dudu
Atletico-MG
🔄
81'
Caique Goncalves ↔ Walace
Vitoria
87'
Erick
Vitoria
🔄
90'
Alexsander ↔ Vitor Hugo
Atletico-MG
🔄
90'
Reinier ↔ Caua
Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG vs Vitoria Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.3%
Odds 1.74
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.05
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.3%
1.74
BTTS No
50.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.05
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.9%
1.30
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 3-0
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 84.3%
Draw 7.9%
Vitoria Win 7.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.36
Vitoria1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
30 GF / 27 GA
Vitoria Vitoria
WLDWL
23 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
10
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
8
4.39
Shots on Goal
3.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 23 matches
Vitoria Vitoria 24 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic Vitoria
9 Wins 8
6 Draws 5
8 Losses 11
30 Goals For 23
27 Goals Against 35
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
10 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 9
4.39 Shots On Goal 3.92
13.26 Total Shots 11.38
4.96 Corners 4.33
48.3% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Atletico-MG's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vitoria. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Vitoria in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vitoria having the stronger overall control. Vitoria arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Atletico-MG Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Atletico-MG have collected 32 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 30:27 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Victor Hugo (4 goals), Tomás Cuello (4 goals), Bernard (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), Bernard (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria sit 12 with 29 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats with a 23:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Matheuzinho (3 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 5 times, Vitoria won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:25 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 4-3-3 / Vitoria 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico-MG 9, Vitoria 8
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 5, draws 4, Vitoria wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B