Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
84.3%
|
- | |
| BTTS | No |
50.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
55.6%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
86.9%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 3-0 |
-
|
- |
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico-MG
23 matches
Vitoria
24 matches
| Atletico-MG | Statistic | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 8 |
| 6 | Draws | 5 |
| 8 | Losses | 11 |
| 30 | Goals For | 23 |
| 27 | Goals Against | 35 |
| 1.3 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.96 |
| 1.17 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.46 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 8 |
| 15 | Over 1.5 | 19 |
| 11 | Over 2.5 | 8 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 9 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 4 | Shots On Goal | 3.92 |
| 12.09 | Total Shots | 11.38 |
| 4.48 | Corners | 4.33 |
| 43.9% | Ball Possession | 45% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between Atletico-MG's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vitoria. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Vitoria in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vitoria having the stronger overall control. Vitoria arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
From their first 22 matches, Atletico-MG have collected 32 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 30:27 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Victor Hugo (4 goals), Tomás Cuello (4 goals), Bernard (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), Bernard (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.
Vitoria sit 12 with 29 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats with a 23:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Matheuzinho (3 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 4 times, Vitoria won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:25 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
Atletico-MG
Internacional
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Remo
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
Atletico-MG
Bahia
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
Santos
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
Internacional
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Vitoria
Bahia
Vitoria
Botafogo
Vitoria
Flamengo
Vitoria
Palmeiras
Vitoria
Remo
Vitoria
Botafogo
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
Santos
Vitoria
Internacional
Vitoria
RB Bragantino
Vitoria
Fluminense
Vitoria
Coritiba
Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
Corinthians
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
Mirassol
Vitoria
Gremio
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Bahia
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
Internacional
Atletico-MG
Remo
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
Vitoria
Flamengo
Vitoria
Remo
Vitoria
Botafogo
Vitoria
Santos
Vitoria
RB Bragantino
Vitoria
Fluminense
Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
Gremio
Vitoria
Bahia
Vitoria
Palmeiras
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40:19 | 21 | 48 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45:21 | 24 | 45 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31:20 | 11 | 41 |
D
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36:29 | 7 | 41 |
W
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 5 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34:33 | 1 | 39 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 6 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32:28 | 4 | 34 |
D
D
D
D
D
|
|
| 7 |
Atletico-MG
Home
|
23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30:27 | 3 | 33 |
D
W
D
W
D
|
| 8 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27:23 | 4 | 32 |
D
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25:22 | 3 | 32 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 31 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35:34 | 1 | 30 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 12 |
Vitoria
Away
|
23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23:33 | -10 | 29 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
| 13 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27:26 | 1 | 27 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32:35 | -3 | 25 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 25 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 24:28 | -4 | 25 |
D
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 23 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 18 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28:39 | -11 | 23 |
L
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23:34 | -11 | 22 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23:46 | -23 | 11 |
D
L
D
L
L
|