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BRAZIL › SERIE A
17.10.2026 21:30
Arena MRV
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

Atletico-MG vs Coritiba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.6%
Odds 1.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.81
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.6%
1.57 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.81 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.30 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 74.6%
Draw 4.7%
Coritiba Win 20.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.46
Coritiba1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
41 GF / 35 GA
Coritiba Coritiba
WLDWL
38 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
15
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
16
4.8
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 30 matches
Coritiba Coritiba 30 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic Coritiba
13 Wins 10
8 Draws 9
9 Losses 11
41 Goals For 38
35 Goals Against 48
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
15 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 16
9 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 9
4.8 Shots On Goal 3.33
13.73 Total Shots 11.17
5.17 Corners 3.73
49.4% Ball Possession 40.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Atletico-MG's more proactive style and Coritiba's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Coritiba. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Coritiba arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Atletico-MG Analysis

So far, Atletico-MG have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 44 points from 29 matches. The record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 39:34 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Cuello (5 goals), Hulk (4 goals), Bernard (4 goals), with creative support from Hulk (5 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), T. Cuello (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Coritiba Analysis

Coritiba sit 9 with 38 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats with a 37:47 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Breno Lopes (8 goals), Pedro Rocha (6 goals), J. Lavega (5 goals), with creative support from Josué (10 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 9 times, Coritiba won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:12 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1 / Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico-MG 6, Coritiba 2
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 9, draws 2, Coritiba wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B