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BRAZIL › SERIE A
19.09.2026 19:00
MRV Arena
Referee: Raphael Claus, Brazil
Atletico-MG
Match Timeline
Chapecoense-sc
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
44'
Tulio Eduardo · Assist: Dudu
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
48'
Vitor Hugo
Atletico-MG
🔄
58'
Alan Minda ↔ Dudu
Atletico-MG
🔄
58'
Alexsander ↔ Renan Lodi
Atletico-MG
🔄
58'
Kauã Pascini ↔ Mateo Cassierra
Atletico-MG
⚽
69'
Mateo Cassierra
Atletico-MG
🔄
71'
Dudu ↔ Bruno Matias
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
71'
Tulio Eduardo ↔ Yannick Bolasie
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
81'
Vitão
Atletico-MG
🔄
81'
Maycon ↔ Kevin Castaño
Atletico-MG
🔄
82'
Giovanni Augusto ↔ Miguel Carvalho
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
82'
Bruno Pacheco ↔ Fernando
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
88'
Yago Felipe ↔ David Antunes
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
90'
Fernando
Chapecoense-sc

Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 76.6%
Draw 4.2%
Chapecoense-sc Win 19.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.59
Chapecoense-sc1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
35 GF / 31 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
30 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.96
12
BTTS Yes
18
13
Over 2.5
16
4.46
Shots on Goal
3.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 26 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 27 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic Chapecoense-sc
11 Wins 4
6 Draws 8
9 Losses 15
35 Goals For 30
31 Goals Against 53
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.96
12 BTTS Yes 18
18 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 2
9 Failed To Score 8
4.46 Shots On Goal 3.54
13.15 Total Shots 12.88
4.81 Corners 3.96
48.8% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Atletico-MG's more proactive style and Chapecoense-sc's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Chapecoense-sc. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Atletico-MG arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 36 points compared to Chapecoense-sc in 20 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Chapecoense-sc in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chapecoense-sc having the stronger overall control.

Atletico-MG Analysis

From their first 25 matches, Atletico-MG have collected 36 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, while the 32:30 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (4 goals), T. Cuello (4 goals), Reinier (3 goals), with creative support from Hulk (4 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), Reinier (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc sit 20 with 17 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats with a 27:50 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Marcinho (5 goals), Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), with creative support from Giovanni Augusto (4 assists), Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 5 times, Chapecoense-sc won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:16 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 3-4-2-1 / Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico-MG 6, Chapecoense-sc 7
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 5, draws 5, Chapecoense-sc wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B