BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
MRV Arena
Referee: R. Abatti
Atletico-MG
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
23'
Mateo Cassierra
Atletico-MG
🟨
27'
Alex Telles
Botafogo
🔄
49'
Bernard ↔ Alexsander
Atletico-MG
🔄
64'
Edenilson ↔ Kadir Barría
Botafogo
🔄
68'
Iván Román ↔ Vitor Hugo
Atletico-MG
🔄
69'
Alan Minda ↔ Mamady Cissé
Atletico-MG
🔄
75'
Newton ↔ Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
🔄
75'
Alex Telles ↔ Marçal
Botafogo
🔄
80'
Matheus Martins ↔ Jordan Barrera
Botafogo
🔄
88'
Tomás Cuello ↔ Reinier
Atletico-MG
90'
Arthur Cabral
Botafogo
🟨
90+3'
Mateo Ponte
Botafogo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 41%
Draw 16.5%
Botafogo Win 42.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.41
Botafogo1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
17 GF / 20 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
28 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
5
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
12
4.43
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 14 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 17 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic Botafogo
5 Wins 6
2 Draws 3
7 Losses 8
17 Goals For 28
20 Goals Against 29
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
5 BTTS Yes 11
9 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 4
4.43 Shots On Goal 4.71
13.64 Total Shots 12.18
5.21 Corners 3.82
49.6% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Botafogo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atletico-MG have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Botafogo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo having the stronger overall control.

Atletico-MG Analysis

With 17 points from 14 games and a place of 11, Atletico-MG still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 17:20, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Victor Hugo (3 goals), Cuello (2 goals), Dudu (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), R. Lodi (2 assists), Victor Hugo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo are currently 10 in the standings with 17 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, while the 25:26 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Danilo (7 goals), Matheus Martins (4 goals), Arthur Cabral (3 goals), with creative support from A. Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Alex Telles (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 6 times, Botafogo won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:17 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.6%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 4-4-2 / Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico-MG 8, Botafogo 7
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 6, draws 2, Botafogo wins 7
Stats
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Botafogo Botafogo
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
11
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 4
9 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 1
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Goal 5
5 Shots off Goal 11
5 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 10
5 Shots outsidebox 8
4 Goalkeeper Saves 6
307 Total passes 407
234 Passes accurate 329
0.92 expected_goals 1.69
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Atletico-MG
Formation
Botafogo
Everson
Everson
Natanael
Natanael
Iván Román
Iván Román
Junior Alonso
Junior Alonso
Renan Lodi
Renan Lodi
Maycon
Maycon
Tomás Pérez
Tomás Pérez
Tomás Cuello
Tomás Cuello
Alan Minda
Alan Minda
Bernard
Bernard
Mateo Cassierra
Mateo Cassierra
Neto
Neto
Nahuel Ferraresi
Nahuel Ferraresi
Newton
Newton
Alexander Barboza
Alexander Barboza
Mateo Ponte
Mateo Ponte
Danilo Oliveira
Danilo Oliveira
Cristian Medina
Cristian Medina
Alex Telles
Alex Telles
Edenilson
Edenilson
Arthur Cabral
Arthur Cabral
Matheus Martins
Matheus Martins
Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Everson
G
2
Natanael
D
3
Iván Román
↓ 68'
D
6
Junior Alonso
D
16
Renan Lodi
D
8
Maycon
M
25
Tomás Pérez
M
28
Tomás Cuello
↓ 88'
M
27
Alan Minda
↓ 69'
M
11
Bernard
↓ 49'
M
9
Mateo Cassierra
⚽ 23'
F
Substitutes
5
Alexsander
↑ 49'
M
14
Vitor Hugo
↑ 68'
D
39
Mamady Cissé
↑ 69'
M
19
Reinier
↑ 88'
M
1
Gabriel Delfim
G
4
Ruan
D
36
Kauã Pascini
D
17
Igor Gomes
M
48
Mateus Jose Iseppe
M
23
Ángelo Preciado
D
92
Dudu
F
29
Cauã Campos Soares
F
Botafogo 3-4-3
Starting XI
22
Neto
G
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
28
Newton
↓ 75'
D
20
Alexander Barboza
D
4
Mateo Ponte
🟨 90+3'
M
8
Danilo Oliveira
M
6
Cristian Medina
M
13
Alex Telles
↓ 75' 🟨 27'
M
88
Edenilson
↓ 64'
F
19
Arthur Cabral
⚽ 90'
F
11
Matheus Martins
↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
37
Kadir Barría
↑ 64'
F
21
Marçal
↑ 75'
D
10
Álvaro Montoro
↑ 75'
M
14
Jordan Barrera
↑ 80'
M
1
Raul
G
3
Ythallo
D
34
Gabriel Justino
D
42
Kadu Santos
D
27
Caio Roque
D
77
Lucas Villalba
F
75
Huguinho
M
30
Joaquín Correa
F
Last matches: Atletico-MG
21.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
Last matches: Botafogo
23.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Santos
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Bahia
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
18.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
4
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
29.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Palmeiras
1
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
04.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
19.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
H2H: Atletico-MG vs Botafogo
10.05.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
20.09.25
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
1
0
L
20.04.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
0
W
30.11.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
3
L
21.11.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
0
0
D
07.07.24
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
3
0
L
17.09.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
0
W
07.05.23
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
2
0
L
07.11.22
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
0
2
L
17.07.22
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
0
1
W
26.11.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
1
W
20.08.20
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
2
1
L
04.12.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
0
W
08.09.19
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
2
1
L
01.08.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
0
W
Last matches: Atletico-MG
21.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
H2H at home: Atletico-MG
10.05.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
20.04.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
0
W
30.11.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
3
L
21.11.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
0
0
D
17.09.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
0
W
07.11.22
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
0
2
L
26.11.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
1
W
04.12.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
0
W
01.08.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
0
W
Last matches: Botafogo
30.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Bahia
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
29.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Palmeiras
1
2
L
04.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
19.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Gremio
3
5
L
H2H away: Botafogo
10.05.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
20.04.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
0
L
30.11.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
3
W
21.11.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
0
0
D
17.09.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
0
L
07.11.22
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
0
2
W
26.11.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
1
L
04.12.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
0
L
01.08.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
2
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 5 1 33:14 19 44
W W W D D
2 18 11 4 3 35:16 19 37
W W L D W
3 19 10 3 6 26:19 7 33
W W W D L
4 19 9 5 5 29:24 5 32
D D L W D
5 19 9 3 7 26:20 6 30
D W W W L
6 19 8 6 5 28:24 4 30
D W W L D
7 19 7 6 6 21:19 2 27
W W W L W
8 19 7 6 6 26:29 -3 27
W D W D W
9 19 7 5 7 33:32 1 26
D W L D W
10 19 7 5 7 25:27 -2 26
L L W W D
11 19 7 5 7 22:25 -3 26
D W L W L
12 19 7 4 8 24:22 2 25
L L D L L
13 19 7 4 8 23:24 -1 25
D W L W D
14 19 5 6 8 22:24 -2 21
L L L W D
15 19 5 6 8 27:31 -4 21
L W L L W
16 19 5 6 8 21:25 -4 21
L L W D L
17 19 5 5 9 22:30 -8 20
L L L L W
18 18 5 4 9 20:25 -5 19
W L W L D
19 19 4 6 9 21:32 -11 18
L W L W D
20 19 1 6 12 17:39 -22 9
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Atletico-MG 8 missing
-
M. Cisse
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
Patrick Silva
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Indio
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Cuello
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
A. Franco
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Hulk
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Lyanco
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
Victor Hugo
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Botafogo 7 missing
-
Kaio Pantaleao
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Allan
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Vitinho
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
S. Rodriguez
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Nathan Fernandes
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Junior Santos
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Bastos
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT