BRAZIL SERIE A
10.05.2026 19:00
Arena MRV
Referee: Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil
Atletico-MG
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
23'
M. Cassierra
Atletico-MG
🟨
27'
Alex Telles
Botafogo
🔄
49'
Bernard ↔ Alexsander
Atletico-MG
🔄
63'
Edenilson ↔ K. Barria
Botafogo
🔄
68'
I. Roman ↔ Vitor Hugo
Atletico-MG
🔄
69'
A. Minda ↔ M. Cisse
Atletico-MG
🔄
74'
Alex Telles ↔ Marcal
Botafogo
🔄
74'
Newton ↔ A. Montoro
Botafogo
🔄
80'
Matheus Martins ↔ J. Barrera
Botafogo
🔄
88'
Cuello ↔ Reinier
Atletico-MG
🟨
90+3'
Mateo Ponte
Botafogo
90'
Arthur Cabral
Botafogo

Atletico-MG vs Botafogo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 41%
Draw 16.5%
Botafogo Win 42.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.41
Botafogo1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
17 GF / 20 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
28 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
5
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
12
4.43
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 14 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 17 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic Botafogo
5 Wins 6
2 Draws 3
7 Losses 8
17 Goals For 28
20 Goals Against 29
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
5 BTTS Yes 11
9 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 4
4.43 Shots On Goal 4.71
13.64 Total Shots 12.18
5.21 Corners 3.82
49.6% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Botafogo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atletico-MG have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Botafogo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo having the stronger overall control.

Atletico-MG Analysis

With 17 points from 14 games and a place of 11, Atletico-MG still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 17:20, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Victor Hugo (3 goals), Cuello (2 goals), Dudu (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), R. Lodi (2 assists), Victor Hugo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo are currently 10 in the standings with 17 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, while the 25:26 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Danilo (7 goals), Matheus Martins (4 goals), Arthur Cabral (3 goals), with creative support from A. Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Alex Telles (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 6 times, Botafogo won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:17 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.6%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 4-4-2 / Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico-MG 8, Botafogo 7
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 6, draws 2, Botafogo wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B