🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
29.08.2026 23:30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Referee: V. Rivas
Atlanta United FC
Match Timeline
Charlotte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
I. Toklomati · Assist: P. Biel
Charlotte
🟨
45+3'
D. Diani
Charlotte
48'
L. Abada · Assist: A. Saint-Maximin
Charlotte
🔄
64'
M. Edwards ↔ R. Hernandez
Atlanta United FC
🔄
64'
W. Reilly ↔ A. Gill
Atlanta United FC
🔄
64'
T. Muyumba ↔ S. Alzate
Atlanta United FC
🔄
64'
F. Picault ↔ Sergio Santos
Atlanta United FC
🔄
70'
M. Almiron ↔ E. Dovlo
Atlanta United FC
🔄
77'
A. Westwood ↔ B. Bronico
Charlotte
🔄
77'
A. Saint-Maximin ↔ R. Aloko
Charlotte
🔄
77'
I. Toklomati ↔ A. Goodwin
Charlotte
🟨
85'
A. Gill
Atlanta United FC
🔄
85'
D. Schnegg ↔ N. Byrne
Charlotte
🔄
90'
P. Biel ↔ L. de la Torre
Charlotte

Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.60
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.5%
1.57
BTTS Yes
88%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.60
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.8%
1.37
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.00
Probability Distribution
Atlanta United FC Win 33.5%
Draw 20.8%
Charlotte Win 45.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1.35
Charlotte1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WWDLW
33 GF / 39 GA
Charlotte Charlotte
WLDWL
44 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
16
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
17
4.1
Shots on Goal
5.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 25 matches
Charlotte Charlotte 25 matches
Atlanta United FC Statistic Charlotte
8 Wins 12
5 Draws 5
12 Losses 8
33 Goals For 44
39 Goals Against 35
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
16 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 19
15 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 11
3 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 5
4.1 Shots On Goal 5.05
12.33 Total Shots 11.52
4.52 Corners 4.38
50.5% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Charlotte's more proactive style and Atlanta United FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Charlotte. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Charlotte carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 29 points while Atlanta United FC sit 15 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 18 points from 20 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats with a 23:35 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Saba Lobzhanidze (2 goals), Ajani Fortune (2 goals), Miguel Almirón (2 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), Saba Lobzhanidze (2 assists), Elías Báez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Charlotte Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Charlotte have collected 29 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 35:31 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Pep Biel (4 goals), Idan Toklomati (3 goals), Kerwin Calderón Vargas (2 goals), with creative support from Kerwin Calderón Vargas (4 assists), Pep Biel (3 assists), Ashley Westwood (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United FC won 4 times, Charlotte won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from Atlanta United FC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.2%)
Predicted formations: Atlanta United FC 4-3-3 / Charlotte 4-3-3
Missing players: Atlanta United FC 5, Charlotte 3
H2H summary: Atlanta United FC wins 4, draws 1, Charlotte wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)