ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
New Balance Arena
Referee: D. Perenzoni
Atalanta
Match Timeline
Bologna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
52'
Tommaso Pobega
Bologna
🔄
63'
N. Zalewski ↔ Y. Musah
Atalanta
🔄
63'
M. De Roon ↔ M. Pasalic
Atalanta
🔄
64'
G. Raspadori ↔ K. Sulemana
Atalanta
🔄
69'
T. Pobega ↔ N. Moro
Bologna
🔄
69'
F. Bernardeschi ↔ R. Orsolini
Bologna
🔄
69'
S. Castro ↔ T. Dallinga
Bologna
🟨
77'
Mario Pašalić
Atalanta
78'
R. Orsolini · Assist: J. Rowe
Bologna
🔄
82'
C. De Ketelaere ↔ M. Bakker
Atalanta
🔄
88'
D. Zappacosta ↔ S. Kolasinac
Atalanta
🔄
88'
J. Rowe ↔ B. Dominguez
Bologna

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atalanta Win 38%
Draw 0%
Bologna Win 62%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atalanta1.36
Bologna1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atalanta Atalanta
WWDLW
76 GF / 60 GA
Bologna Bologna
WLDWL
71 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
27
BTTS Yes
27
25
Over 2.5
25
4.63
Shots on Goal
4.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atalanta Atalanta 52 matches
Bologna Bologna 54 matches
Atalanta Statistic Bologna
22 Wins 23
16 Draws 13
14 Losses 18
76 Goals For 71
60 Goals Against 66
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
27 BTTS Yes 27
40 Over 1.5 40
25 Over 2.5 25
14 Over 3.5 14
18 Clean Sheets 15
11 Failed To Score 15
4.63 Shots On Goal 4.46
14.73 Total Shots 14.24
5.33 Corners 5.31
53.8% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bologna. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atalanta expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bologna in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bologna having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atalanta Analysis

From their first 36 matches, Atalanta have collected 58 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 13 draws, and 8 losses, while the 50:34 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Scamacca (10 goals), N. Krstovic (10 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from N. Krstovic (5 assists), C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Bologna Analysis

So far, Bologna have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 52 points from 36 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, while the 45:43 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Orsolini (9 goals), S. Castro (7 goals), J. Odgaard (5 goals), with creative support from Nicolò Cambiaghi (4 assists), E. Holm (4 assists), Juan Miranda (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atalanta won 6 times, Bologna won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:13 from Atalanta's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Atalanta 3-4-2-1 / Bologna 4-3-3
Missing players: Atalanta 4, Bologna 5
H2H summary: Atalanta wins 6, draws 3, Bologna wins 6
Stats
Atalanta Atalanta
Bologna Bologna
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 5
17 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 1
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Goal 5
5 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 2
7 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 3
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
401 Total passes 479
335 Passes accurate 396
0.76 expected_goals 0.69
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Atalanta
Formation
Bologna
M. Carnesecchi
M. Carnesecchi
G. Scalvini
G. Scalvini
B. Djimsiti
B. Djimsiti
H. Ahanor
H. Ahanor
D. Zappacosta
D. Zappacosta
M. De Roon
M. De Roon
Ederson
Ederson
N. Zalewski
N. Zalewski
C. De Ketelaere
C. De Ketelaere
G. Raspadori
G. Raspadori
N. Krstovic
N. Krstovic
L. Skorupski
L. Skorupski
Joao Mario
Joao Mario
E. Fauske Helland
E. Fauske Helland
T. Heggem
T. Heggem
J. Miranda
J. Miranda
L. Ferguson
L. Ferguson
R. Freuler
R. Freuler
T. Pobega
T. Pobega
F. Bernardeschi
F. Bernardeschi
S. Castro
S. Castro
J. Rowe
🎯
J. Rowe
Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
29
M. Carnesecchi
G
42
G. Scalvini
D
19
B. Djimsiti
D
69
H. Ahanor
D
77
D. Zappacosta
↓ 88'
M
15
M. De Roon
↓ 63'
M
13
Ederson
M
59
N. Zalewski
↓ 63'
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
↓ 82'
F
18
G. Raspadori
↓ 64'
F
90
N. Krstovic
F
Substitutes
57
M. Sportiello
G
31
F. Rossi
G
23
S. Kolasinac
↑ 88'
D
16
R. Bellanova
D
6
Y. Musah
↑ 63'
M
7
K. Sulemana
↑ 64'
F
45
D. Vavassori
F
40
R. Obric
D
8
M. Pasalic
↑ 63' 🟨 77'
M
9
G. Scamacca
F
5
M. Bakker
↑ 82'
D
10
L. Samardzic
M
Bologna 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
L. Skorupski
G
17
Joao Mario
D
5
E. Fauske Helland
D
14
T. Heggem
D
33
J. Miranda
D
19
L. Ferguson
M
8
R. Freuler
M
4
T. Pobega
↓ 69' 🟨 52'
M
10
F. Bernardeschi
↓ 69'
F
9
S. Castro
↓ 69'
F
11
J. Rowe
🎯 78' ↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
13
F. Ravaglia
G
25
M. Pessina
G
29
L. De Silvestri
D
6
N. Moro
↑ 69'
M
7
R. Orsolini
⚽ 78' ↑ 69'
F
20
N. Zortea
D
24
T. Dallinga
↑ 69'
F
30
B. Dominguez
↑ 88'
F
22
C. Lykogiannis
D
21
J. Odgaard
F
23
S. Sohm
M
15
B. Tomasevic
D
Last matches: Atalanta
22.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Fiorentina
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
AC Milan
3
2
W
02.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
27.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
3
L
22.04.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Juventus
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lecce
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
4
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
1
1
D
10.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
6
L
07.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
2
2
D
04.03.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
1
2
L
25.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
4
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
2
1
W
17.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lazio
2
0
W
09.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cremonese
2
1
W
Last matches: Bologna
23.05.26
Ser
Bologna
Inter
3
3
D
11.05.26
Ser
Bologna
Napoli
3
2
W
03.05.26
Ser
Bologna
Cagliari
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bologna
AS Roma
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Juventus
0
2
L
16.04.26
UEF
Bologna
Aston Villa
0
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Lecce
2
0
W
09.04.26
UEF
Bologna
Aston Villa
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Cremonese
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Lazio
0
2
L
19.03.26
UEF
Bologna
AS Roma
4
3
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Sassuolo
1
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
Bologna
AS Roma
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Hellas Verona
1
2
L
02.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Pisa
1
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
Bologna
Brann
1
0
W
23.02.26
Ser
Bologna
Udinese
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Bologna
Brann
1
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Bologna
Torino
2
1
W
11.02.26
Cop
Bologna
Lazio
1
1
D
H2H: Atalanta vs Bologna
17.05.26
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
07.01.26
H2H
Bologna
Atalanta
0
2
W
13.04.25
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
2
0
W
04.02.25
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
28.09.24
H2H
Bologna
Atalanta
1
1
D
03.03.24
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
1
2
L
23.12.23
H2H
Bologna
Atalanta
1
0
L
08.04.23
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
2
L
09.01.23
H2H
Bologna
Atalanta
1
2
W
20.03.22
H2H
Bologna
Atalanta
0
1
W
28.08.21
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
0
D
25.04.21
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
5
0
W
23.12.20
H2H
Bologna
Atalanta
2
2
D
21.07.20
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
1
0
W
15.12.19
H2H
Bologna
Atalanta
2
1
L
Last matches: Atalanta
02.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
22.04.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Juventus
0
1
L
22.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
10.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
6
L
07.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
2
2
D
25.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
4
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
2
1
W
09.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cremonese
2
1
W
05.02.26
Cop
Atalanta
Juventus
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Parma
4
0
W
21.01.26
UEF
Atalanta
Athletic Club
2
3
L
10.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Torino
2
0
W
03.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
0
W
28.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
0
1
L
13.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
1
W
09.12.25
UEF
Atalanta
Chelsea
2
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Atalanta
Genoa
4
0
W
30.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Fiorentina
2
0
W
09.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
0
3
L
H2H at home: Atalanta
17.05.26
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
13.04.25
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
2
0
W
04.02.25
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
03.03.24
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
1
2
L
08.04.23
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
2
L
28.08.21
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
0
D
25.04.21
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
5
0
W
21.07.20
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
1
0
W
Last matches: Bologna
11.05.26
Ser
Bologna
Napoli
3
2
W
19.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Juventus
0
2
L
16.04.26
UEF
Bologna
Aston Villa
0
4
L
05.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Cremonese
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
Bologna
AS Roma
4
3
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Sassuolo
1
0
W
02.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Pisa
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Bologna
Brann
1
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Bologna
Torino
2
1
W
29.01.26
UEF
Bologna
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Bologna
Genoa
2
3
L
15.01.26
Ser
Bologna
Hellas Verona
3
2
W
10.01.26
Ser
Bologna
Como
1
1
D
04.01.26
Ser
Bologna
Inter
1
3
L
22.12.25
Sup
Bologna
Napoli
0
2
L
11.12.25
UEF
Bologna
Celta Vigo
2
1
W
07.12.25
Ser
Bologna
Lazio
1
1
D
22.11.25
Ser
Bologna
Udinese
3
0
W
02.11.25
Ser
Bologna
Parma
3
1
W
26.10.25
Ser
Bologna
Fiorentina
2
2
D
H2H away: Bologna
17.05.26
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
W
13.04.25
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
2
0
L
04.02.25
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
W
03.03.24
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
1
2
W
08.04.23
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
2
W
28.08.21
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
0
0
D
25.04.21
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
5
0
L
21.07.20
H2H
Atalanta
Bologna
1
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Atalanta 4 missing
-
O. Kossounou
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
I. Hien
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
G. Scalvini
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
L. Bernasconi
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Bologna 5 missing
-
N. Casale
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
J. Lucumi
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
M. Vitik
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
N. Cambiaghi
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
K. Bonifazi
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT