ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Olimpico
Referee: F. Maresca
AS Roma
Match Timeline
Lazio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Kenneth Taylor
Lazio
🔄
37'
E. Ndicka ↔ D. Rensch
AS Roma
40'
G. Mancini · Assist: N. Pisilli
AS Roma
🟨
42'
Mario Hermoso
AS Roma
🟨
42'
Matteo Cancellieri
Lazio
🔄
46'
N. Pisilli ↔ S. El Shaarawy
AS Roma
🔄
62'
K. Taylor ↔ F. Dele-Bashiru
Lazio
🔄
62'
B. Dia ↔ D. Maldini
Lazio
🟨
64'
Nuno Tavares
Lazio
66'
G. Mancini · Assist: P. Dybala
AS Roma
🟥
70'
Wesley
AS Roma
🟥
70'
Nicolò Rovella
Lazio
🔄
71'
M. Cancellieri ↔ G. Isaksen
Lazio
🔄
79'
T. Noslin ↔ Pedro
Lazio
🔄
79'
A. Marusic ↔ M. Lazzari
Lazio
🔄
83'
G. Mancini ↔ J. Ziolkowski
AS Roma
🔄
83'
D. Malen ↔ M. Soule
AS Roma
🟨
85'
Stephan El Shaarawy
AS Roma
🔄
88'
P. Dybala ↔ A. Dovbyk
AS Roma

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AS Roma Win 54.1%
Draw 9.1%
Lazio Win 36.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma1.36
Lazio1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
AS Roma AS Roma
WWDLW
74 GF / 45 GA
Lazio Lazio
WLDWL
44 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.07
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
20
BTTS Yes
13
20
Over 2.5
12
4.64
Shots on Goal
3.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AS Roma AS Roma 47 matches
Lazio Lazio 41 matches
AS Roma Statistic Lazio
26 Wins 14
6 Draws 15
15 Losses 12
74 Goals For 44
45 Goals Against 43
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
20 BTTS Yes 13
33 Over 1.5 27
20 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 7
19 Clean Sheets 16
8 Failed To Score 17
4.64 Shots On Goal 3.8
13.28 Total Shots 10.59
5.11 Corners 3.66
55.6% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AS Roma expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lazio in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lazio having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lazio. AS Roma come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

AS Roma Analysis

AS Roma approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 67 points after 36 outings. The return of 21 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats, together with goals at 55:31, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Malen (13 goals), M. Soule (6 goals), Wesley Franca (5 goals), with creative support from M. Soule (5 assists), D. Rensch (4 assists), M. Kone (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with E. Bove unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Lazio Analysis

Lazio sit 9 with 51 points after 36 league matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 12 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 39:37 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Isaksen (5 goals), M. Cancellieri (4 goals), Pedro (4 goals), with creative support from Danilo Cataldi (3 assists), T. Basic (3 assists), Valentín Castellanos (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AS Roma won 6 times, Lazio won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:12 from AS Roma's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
Predicted formations: AS Roma 3-4-2-1 / Lazio 4-3-3
Missing players: AS Roma 2, Lazio 5
H2H summary: AS Roma wins 6, draws 4, Lazio wins 5
Stats
AS Roma AS Roma
Lazio Lazio
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
1
8 Corner Kicks 3
15 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 2
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Goal 2
8 Shots off Goal 3
1 Blocked Shots 1
12 Shots insidebox 4
4 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 6
420 Total passes 440
363 Passes accurate 379
1.19 expected_goals 0.69
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

AS Roma
Formation
Lazio
M. Svilar
M. Svilar
G. Mancini
⚽ 2
G. Mancini
E. Ndicka
E. Ndicka
M. Hermoso
M. Hermoso
Z. Celik
Z. Celik
B. Cristante
B. Cristante
N. El Aynaoui
N. El Aynaoui
Wesley Franca
Wesley Franca
P. Dybala
🎯
P. Dybala
N. Pisilli
🎯
N. Pisilli
D. Malen
D. Malen
A. Furlanetto
A. Furlanetto
A. Marusic
A. Marusic
M. Gila
M. Gila
O. Provstgaard
O. Provstgaard
N. Tavares
N. Tavares
T. Basic
T. Basic
N. Rovella
N. Rovella
K. Taylor
K. Taylor
M. Cancellieri
M. Cancellieri
B. Dia
B. Dia
T. Noslin
T. Noslin
AS Roma 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
99
M. Svilar
G
23
G. Mancini
⚽ 40' ⚽ 66' ↓ 83'
D
5
E. Ndicka
↓ 37'
D
22
M. Hermoso
🟨 42'
D
19
Z. Celik
M
4
B. Cristante
M
8
N. El Aynaoui
M
43
Wesley Franca
🟥 70'
M
21
P. Dybala
🎯 66' ↓ 88'
F
61
N. Pisilli
🎯 40' ↓ 46'
F
14
D. Malen
↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
70
G. De Marzi
G
95
P. Gollini
G
92
S. El Shaarawy
↑ 46' 🟨 85'
F
12
K. Tsimikas
D
24
J. Ziolkowski
↑ 83'
D
78
R. Vaz
F
3
Angelino
D
9
A. Dovbyk
↑ 88'
F
2
D. Rensch
↑ 37'
D
18
M. Soule
↑ 83'
F
87
D. Ghilardi
D
Lazio 4-3-3
Starting XI
55
A. Furlanetto
G
77
A. Marusic
↓ 79'
D
34
M. Gila
D
25
O. Provstgaard
D
17
N. Tavares
🟨 64'
D
26
T. Basic
M
6
N. Rovella
🟥 70'
M
24
K. Taylor
↓ 62' 🟨 21'
M
22
M. Cancellieri
↓ 71' 🟨 42'
F
19
B. Dia
↓ 62'
F
14
T. Noslin
↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
99
G. Giacomone
G
72
N. Pannozzo
G
9
Pedro
↑ 79'
F
23
E. Hysaj
D
29
M. Lazzari
↑ 79'
M
3
L. Pellegrini
D
32
D. Cataldi
M
2
S. Gigot
D
18
G. Isaksen
↑ 71'
F
7
F. Dele-Bashiru
↑ 62'
M
27
D. Maldini
↑ 62'
F
20
P. Ratkov
F
21
R. Belahyane
M
28
A. Przyborek
M
Last matches: AS Roma
24.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Hellas Verona
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Parma
3
2
W
04.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Fiorentina
4
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Bologna
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
10.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Pisa
3
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Inter
2
5
L
22.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Lecce
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
AS Roma
Bologna
3
4
L
15.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Como
1
2
L
12.03.26
UEF
AS Roma
Bologna
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Genoa
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Juventus
3
3
D
22.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Cremonese
3
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Napoli
2
2
D
09.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Cagliari
2
0
W
02.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Udinese
0
1
L
29.01.26
UEF
AS Roma
Panathinaikos
1
1
D
25.01.26
Ser
AS Roma
AC Milan
1
1
D
22.01.26
UEF
AS Roma
VfB Stuttgart
2
0
W
Last matches: Lazio
23.05.26
Ser
Lazio
Pisa
2
1
W
13.05.26
Cop
Lazio
Inter
0
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Lazio
Inter
0
3
L
04.05.26
Ser
Lazio
Cremonese
2
1
W
27.04.26
Ser
Lazio
Udinese
3
3
D
22.04.26
Cop
Lazio
Atalanta
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Lazio
Napoli
2
0
W
13.04.26
Ser
Lazio
Fiorentina
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Lazio
Parma
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Lazio
Bologna
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Lazio
AC Milan
1
0
W
09.03.26
Ser
Lazio
Sassuolo
2
1
W
04.03.26
Cop
Lazio
Atalanta
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Lazio
Torino
0
2
L
21.02.26
Ser
Lazio
Cagliari
0
0
D
14.02.26
Ser
Lazio
Atalanta
0
2
L
11.02.26
Cop
Lazio
Bologna
1
1
D
08.02.26
Ser
Lazio
Juventus
2
2
D
30.01.26
Ser
Lazio
Genoa
3
2
W
24.01.26
Ser
Lazio
Lecce
0
0
D
H2H: AS Roma vs Lazio
17.05.26
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
W
21.09.25
H2H
Lazio
AS Roma
0
1
W
13.04.25
H2H
Lazio
AS Roma
1
1
D
05.01.25
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
W
06.04.24
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
1
0
W
10.01.24
H2H
Lazio
AS Roma
1
0
L
12.11.23
H2H
Lazio
AS Roma
0
0
D
19.03.23
H2H
Lazio
AS Roma
1
0
L
06.11.22
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
0
1
L
20.03.22
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
3
0
W
26.09.21
H2H
Lazio
AS Roma
3
2
L
15.05.21
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
W
15.01.21
H2H
Lazio
AS Roma
3
0
L
26.01.20
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
1
1
D
01.09.19
H2H
Lazio
AS Roma
1
1
D
Last matches: AS Roma
04.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Fiorentina
4
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
10.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Pisa
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Lecce
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
AS Roma
Bologna
3
4
L
01.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Juventus
3
3
D
22.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Cremonese
3
0
W
09.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Cagliari
2
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
AS Roma
AC Milan
1
1
D
22.01.26
UEF
AS Roma
VfB Stuttgart
2
0
W
13.01.26
Cop
AS Roma
Torino
2
3
L
10.01.26
Ser
AS Roma
Sassuolo
2
0
W
29.12.25
Ser
AS Roma
Genoa
3
1
W
15.12.25
Ser
AS Roma
Como
1
0
W
30.11.25
Ser
AS Roma
Napoli
0
1
L
27.11.25
UEF
AS Roma
FC Midtjylland
2
1
W
09.11.25
Ser
AS Roma
Udinese
2
0
W
29.10.25
Ser
AS Roma
Parma
2
1
W
23.10.25
UEF
AS Roma
Plzen
1
2
L
18.10.25
Ser
AS Roma
Inter
0
1
L
H2H at home: AS Roma
17.05.26
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
W
05.01.25
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
W
06.04.24
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
1
0
W
06.11.22
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
0
1
L
20.03.22
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
3
0
W
15.05.21
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
W
26.01.20
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
1
1
D
Last matches: Lazio
04.05.26
Ser
Lazio
Cremonese
2
1
W
22.04.26
Cop
Lazio
Atalanta
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Lazio
Napoli
2
0
W
13.04.26
Ser
Lazio
Fiorentina
0
1
L
22.03.26
Ser
Lazio
Bologna
2
0
W
01.03.26
Ser
Lazio
Torino
0
2
L
21.02.26
Ser
Lazio
Cagliari
0
0
D
11.02.26
Cop
Lazio
Bologna
1
1
D
08.02.26
Ser
Lazio
Juventus
2
2
D
24.01.26
Ser
Lazio
Lecce
0
0
D
11.01.26
Ser
Lazio
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
27.12.25
Ser
Lazio
Udinese
1
1
D
13.12.25
Ser
Lazio
Parma
1
0
W
29.11.25
Ser
Lazio
AC Milan
0
1
L
09.11.25
Ser
Lazio
Inter
0
2
L
30.10.25
Ser
Lazio
Pisa
0
0
D
19.10.25
Ser
Lazio
Atalanta
0
0
D
29.09.25
Ser
Lazio
Genoa
3
0
W
14.09.25
Ser
Lazio
Sassuolo
0
1
L
24.08.25
Ser
Lazio
Como
0
2
L
H2H away: Lazio
17.05.26
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
L
05.01.25
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
L
06.04.24
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
1
0
L
06.11.22
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
0
1
W
20.03.22
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
3
0
L
15.05.21
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
L
26.01.20
H2H
AS Roma
Lazio
1
1
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9
Lazio Away
38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L

Missing Players

AS Roma 2 missing
-
E. Ferguson
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
B. Zaragoza
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
Lazio 5 missing
-
I. Provedel
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
M. Zaccagni
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Patric
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
A. Romagnoli
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
E. Motta
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT