ITALY SERIE A
17.05.2026 10:00
Stadio Olimpico
Referee: F. Maresca
AS Roma
Match Timeline
Lazio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Kenneth Taylor
Lazio
🔄
37'
E. Ndicka ↔ D. Rensch
AS Roma
40'
G. Mancini · Assist: N. Pisilli
AS Roma
🟨
42'
Mario Hermoso
AS Roma
🟨
42'
Matteo Cancellieri
Lazio
🔄
46'
N. Pisilli ↔ S. El Shaarawy
AS Roma
🔄
62'
K. Taylor ↔ F. Dele-Bashiru
Lazio
🔄
62'
B. Dia ↔ D. Maldini
Lazio
🟨
64'
Nuno Tavares
Lazio
66'
G. Mancini · Assist: P. Dybala
AS Roma
🟥
70'
Wesley
AS Roma
🟥
70'
Nicolò Rovella
Lazio
🔄
71'
M. Cancellieri ↔ G. Isaksen
Lazio
🔄
79'
T. Noslin ↔ Pedro
Lazio
🔄
79'
A. Marusic ↔ M. Lazzari
Lazio
🔄
83'
G. Mancini ↔ J. Ziolkowski
AS Roma
🔄
83'
D. Malen ↔ M. Soule
AS Roma
🟨
85'
Stephan El Shaarawy
AS Roma
🔄
88'
P. Dybala ↔ A. Dovbyk
AS Roma

AS Roma vs Lazio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AS Roma Win 54.1%
Draw 9.1%
Lazio Win 36.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma1.36
Lazio1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
AS Roma AS Roma
WWDLW
74 GF / 45 GA
Lazio Lazio
WLDWL
44 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.07
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
20
BTTS Yes
13
20
Over 2.5
12
4.64
Shots on Goal
3.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AS Roma AS Roma 47 matches
Lazio Lazio 41 matches
AS Roma Statistic Lazio
26 Wins 14
6 Draws 15
15 Losses 12
74 Goals For 44
45 Goals Against 43
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
20 BTTS Yes 13
33 Over 1.5 27
20 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 7
19 Clean Sheets 16
8 Failed To Score 17
4.64 Shots On Goal 3.8
13.28 Total Shots 10.59
5.11 Corners 3.66
55.6% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AS Roma expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lazio in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lazio having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lazio. AS Roma come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

AS Roma Analysis

AS Roma approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 67 points after 36 outings. The return of 21 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats, together with goals at 55:31, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Malen (13 goals), M. Soule (6 goals), Wesley Franca (5 goals), with creative support from M. Soule (5 assists), D. Rensch (4 assists), M. Kone (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with E. Bove unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Lazio Analysis

Lazio sit 9 with 51 points after 36 league matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 12 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 39:37 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Isaksen (5 goals), M. Cancellieri (4 goals), Pedro (4 goals), with creative support from Danilo Cataldi (3 assists), T. Basic (3 assists), Valentín Castellanos (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AS Roma won 6 times, Lazio won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:12 from AS Roma's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
Predicted formations: AS Roma 3-4-2-1 / Lazio 4-3-3
Missing players: AS Roma 2, Lazio 5
H2H summary: AS Roma wins 6, draws 4, Lazio wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9
Lazio Away
38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B