WORLD UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Emirates Stadium
Referee: D. Siebert
Arsenal
Match Timeline
Atletico Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Kepa Arrizabalaga
Arsenal
44'
B. Saka
Arsenal
🔄
57'
R. Le Normand ↔ A. Sorloth
Atletico Madrid
🔄
57'
A. Lookman ↔ N. Molina
Atletico Madrid
🔄
57'
G. Simeone ↔ J. Cardoso
Atletico Madrid
🔄
58'
B. Saka ↔ N. Madueke
Arsenal
🔄
58'
R. Calafiori ↔ P. Hincapie
Arsenal
🔄
59'
E. Eze ↔ M. Odegaard
Arsenal
🔄
66'
A. Griezmann ↔ A. Baena
Atletico Madrid
🔄
66'
J. Alvarez ↔ T. Almada
Atletico Madrid
🔄
74'
M. Lewis-Skelly ↔ M. Zubimendi
Arsenal
🟨
81'
Marc Pubill
Atletico Madrid
🔄
83'
L. Trossard ↔ G. Martinelli
Arsenal
🟨
90+5'
Koke
Atletico Madrid

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Arsenal Win 69.7%
Draw 0%
Atletico Madrid Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal1.74
Atletico Madrid1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arsenal Arsenal
WWDLW
106 GF / 36 GA
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WLDWL
108 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
2.04
Average Goals Scored
1.96
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
25
BTTS Yes
33
29
Over 2.5
34
5.4
Shots on Goal
5.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arsenal Arsenal 52 matches
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 55 matches
Arsenal Statistic Atletico Madrid
36 Wins 30
10 Draws 10
6 Losses 15
106 Goals For 108
36 Goals Against 71
2.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
25 BTTS Yes 33
41 Over 1.5 46
29 Over 2.5 34
15 Over 3.5 22
26 Clean Sheets 17
4 Failed To Score 6
5.4 Shots On Goal 5.31
14.94 Total Shots 13.49
5.88 Corners 5.91
55.8% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Atletico Madrid seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Atletico Madrid controlled more possession in the first leg (52% against 48%). Atletico Madrid carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 4 shots on goal compared to 2. Atletico Madrid circulated the ball more often, making 505 passes to 480 and completing 420. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arsenal expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atletico Madrid in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Madrid having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Arsenal come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico Madrid. Arsenal arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 24 points compared to Atletico Madrid in 14 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Arsenal Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Arsenal arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 24 points after 8 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 23:4 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on G. Martinelli (6 goals), V. Gyokeres (5 goals), K. Havertz (3 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (4 assists), G. Martinelli (2 assists), V. Gyokeres (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Merino, J. Timber, M. Odegaard unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

Atletico Madrid enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 8 matches, placing them 14 in their league. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 17:15, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Alvarez (10 goals), A. Sorloth (6 goals), M. Llorente (5 goals), with creative support from A. Griezmann (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Matteo Ruggeri (3 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without P. Barrios, M. Llorente, A. Sorloth, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal won 2 times, Atletico Madrid won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:4 from Arsenal's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Arsenal 4-3-3 / Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
Missing players: Arsenal 2, Atletico Madrid 2
H2H summary: Arsenal wins 2, draws 3, Atletico Madrid wins 1
Stats
Arsenal Arsenal
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 2
10 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Goal 2
8 Shots off Goal 4
3 Blocked Shots 3
6 Shots insidebox 7
7 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
445 Total passes 386
378 Passes accurate 320
1.56 expected_goals 0.99
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Arsenal
Formation
Atletico Madrid
D. Raya
D. Raya
B. White
B. White
W. Saliba
W. Saliba
Gabriel
Gabriel
R. Calafiori
R. Calafiori
D. Rice
D. Rice
M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka
B. Saka
E. Eze
E. Eze
L. Trossard
L. Trossard
V. Gyökeres
V. Gyökeres
J. Oblak
J. Oblak
M. Pubill
M. Pubill
R. Le Normand
R. Le Normand
D. Hancko
D. Hancko
M. Ruggeri
M. Ruggeri
G. Simeone
G. Simeone
M. Llorente
M. Llorente
Koke
Koke
A. Lookman
A. Lookman
A. Griezmann
A. Griezmann
J. Alvarez
J. Alvarez
Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
D. Raya
G
4
B. White
D
2
W. Saliba
D
6
Gabriel
D
33
R. Calafiori
↓ 58'
D
41
D. Rice
M
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
↓ 74'
M
7
B. Saka
⚽ 44' ↓ 58'
M
10
E. Eze
↓ 59'
M
19
L. Trossard
↓ 83'
M
14
V. Gyökeres
F
Substitutes
13
K. Arrizabalaga
🟨 -5'
G
35
T. Setford
G
8
M. Odegaard
↑ 59'
M
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
29
K. Havertz
F
20
N. Madueke
↑ 58'
F
11
G. Martinelli
↑ 83'
F
5
P. Hincapie
↑ 58'
D
36
M. Zubimendi
↑ 74'
M
3
C. Mosquera
D
56
M. Dowman
M
16
C. Norgaard
M
Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
Starting XI
13
J. Oblak
G
18
M. Pubill
🟨 81'
D
24
R. Le Normand
↓ 57'
D
17
D. Hancko
D
3
M. Ruggeri
D
20
G. Simeone
↓ 57'
M
14
M. Llorente
M
6
Koke
🟨 90+5'
M
22
A. Lookman
↓ 57'
M
7
A. Griezmann
↓ 66'
F
19
J. Alvarez
↓ 66'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Musso
G
9
A. Sorloth
↑ 57'
F
2
J. M. Gimenez
D
16
N. Molina
↑ 57'
D
21
O. Vargas
M
32
J. Bonar
D
4
R. Mendoza
M
15
C. Lenglet
D
10
A. Baena
↑ 66'
M
11
T. Almada
↑ 66'
M
5
J. Cardoso
↑ 57'
M
34
J. Diaz
M
Last matches: Arsenal
30.05.26
UEF
Arsenal
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
18.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Burnley
1
0
W
10.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
West Ham
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Fulham
3
0
W
29.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Newcastle
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
2
L
15.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Bournemouth
1
2
L
07.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
1
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Arsenal
Southampton
1
2
L
17.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Everton
2
0
W
11.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
07.03.26
FA
Arsenal
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brighton
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Chelsea
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Tottenham
4
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Wolves
2
2
D
Last matches: Atletico Madrid
24.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
1
5
L
17.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Girona
1
0
W
12.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
2
1
W
09.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Celta Vigo
0
1
L
02.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
2
0
W
29.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
1
D
25.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
3
2
W
22.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Elche
2
3
L
18.04.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
2
2
D
14.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
1
2
L
11.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
1
2
L
08.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
2
0
W
04.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
1
2
L
22.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
2
3
L
18.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
2
3
L
14.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Getafe
1
0
W
10.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
5
2
W
07.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
3
2
W
03.03.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
0
3
L
28.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Oviedo
1
0
W
H2H: Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
05.05.26
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
0
W
29.04.26
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
1
D
21.10.25
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
4
0
W
26.07.18
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
1
D
03.05.18
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
0
L
26.04.18
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D
Last matches: Arsenal
18.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Burnley
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Fulham
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Newcastle
1
0
W
15.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Bournemouth
1
2
L
17.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Everton
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Chelsea
2
1
W
15.02.26
FA
Arsenal
Wigan
4
0
W
07.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Sunderland
3
0
W
28.01.26
UEF
Arsenal
Kairat Almaty
3
2
W
25.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Manchester United
2
3
L
08.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Liverpool
0
0
D
30.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Aston Villa
4
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Brighton
2
1
W
13.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Wolves
2
1
W
03.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Brentford
2
0
W
26.11.25
UEF
Arsenal
Bayern München
3
1
W
23.11.25
Pre
Arsenal
Tottenham
4
1
W
26.10.25
Pre
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
1
0
W
H2H at home: Arsenal
05.05.26
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
0
W
21.10.25
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
4
0
W
26.04.18
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Madrid
24.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
1
5
L
12.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
2
1
W
02.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
2
0
W
22.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Elche
2
3
L
11.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
1
2
L
08.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
2
0
W
22.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
2
3
L
18.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
2
3
L
03.03.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
0
3
L
28.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Oviedo
1
0
W
18.02.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge KV
3
3
D
15.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
0
3
L
05.02.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
5
0
W
31.01.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Levante
0
0
D
21.01.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Galatasaray
1
1
D
13.01.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Deportivo La Coruna
1
0
W
04.01.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
1
1
D
21.12.25
La
Atletico Madrid
Girona
3
0
W
17.12.25
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Atlético Baleares
3
2
W
09.12.25
UEF
Atletico Madrid
PSV Eindhoven
3
2
W
H2H away: Atletico Madrid
05.05.26
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
0
L
21.10.25
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
4
0
L
26.04.18
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 23:4 19 24
W W W W W
2 8 7 0 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
3 8 6 0 2 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
4 8 5 2 1 17:7 10 17
W W W L W
5 8 5 1 2 22:14 8 16
W W W L D
6 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
W W L W D
7 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
W W L W D
8 8 5 1 2 15:9 6 16
W L W L W
9 8 5 0 3 21:12 9 15
L W L W L
10 8 5 0 3 15:7 8 15
W L L L W
11 8 4 2 2 21:11 10 14
D L D W L
12 8 4 2 2 17:7 10 14
D W D L W
13 8 3 4 1 14:10 4 13
D W W W D
14 8 4 1 3 17:15 2 13
L D W W W
15 8 4 1 3 10:10 0 13
L L W W W
16 8 3 3 2 13:14 -1 12
W L D W W
17 8 3 2 3 19:17 2 11
L L D W L
18 8 3 2 3 10:14 -4 11
W W W L D
19 8 3 1 4 15:17 -2 10
W W L L D
20 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
L D L L W
21 8 2 4 2 8:14 -6 10
D L W D W
22 8 3 1 4 13:21 -8 10
L W L L D
23 8 2 3 3 14:15 -1 9
W W D L L
24 8 3 0 5 10:12 -2 9
W L W W L
25 8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
L L W W L
26 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
W L L D W
27 8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
W L L W L
28 8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
L L L W D
29 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L W D D L
30 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
L D L W D
31 8 2 2 4 12:21 -9 8
L D W W L
32 8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
L W W L L
33 8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
L L L L D
34 8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
L L L D L
35 8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 7:22 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Arsenal 2 missing
-
M. Merino
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
J. Timber
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
Atletico Madrid 2 missing
-
P. Barrios
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
N. Gonzalez
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT