POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Miejski w Gdyni
Referee: L. Kuzma
Arka Gdynia
Match Timeline
Nieciecza
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
D. Hilbrycht
Nieciecza
🟨
25'
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Nieciecza
🟨
38'
Kike Hermoso
Arka Gdynia
🟨
42'
Maciej Wolski
Nieciecza
VAR
45+7'
Eduardo Espiau
Arka Gdynia
45'
E. D. Espiau Hernandez · Assist: O. Kubiak
Arka Gdynia
🔄
46'
I. Strzalek ↔ A. Trubeha
Nieciecza
52'
V. Gutkovskis
Arka Gdynia
🟨
65'
Damian Hilbrycht
Nieciecza
🔄
66'
M. Ambrosiewicz ↔ W. Jakubik
Nieciecza
🔄
68'
D. Kocyla ↔ M. Navarro
Arka Gdynia
🔄
68'
P. Szysz ↔ S. Kerk
Arka Gdynia
74'
A. Kasperkiewicz · Assist: L. Masoero
Nieciecza
🔄
79'
O. Kubiak ↔ D. Gojny
Arka Gdynia
🔄
79'
M. Rzuchowski ↔ A. Nguiamba
Arka Gdynia
🟨
80'
Artem Putivtsev
Nieciecza
🔄
89'
↔ I. Durdov
Nieciecza
🔄
90+5'
S. Guerrero ↔ M. Matysik
Nieciecza
90'
I. Durdov · Assist: D. Hilbrycht
Nieciecza

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 33.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 22.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
33.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
22.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Arka Gdynia Win 57.5%
Draw 5.8%
Nieciecza Win 36.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arka Gdynia1.36
Nieciecza1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
WWDLW
32 GF / 55 GA
Nieciecza Nieciecza
WLDWL
37 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.91
16
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
17
3.31
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 32 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza 32 matches
Arka Gdynia Statistic Nieciecza
9 Wins 7
9 Draws 7
14 Losses 18
32 Goals For 37
55 Goals Against 61
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.91
16 BTTS Yes 22
23 Over 1.5 27
19 Over 2.5 17
12 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 3
13 Failed To Score 7
3.31 Shots On Goal 4.22
10.34 Total Shots 12.78
4.19 Corners 4.5
45% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arka Gdynia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nieciecza in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nieciecza having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nieciecza arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nieciecza.

Arka Gdynia Analysis

With 36 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Arka Gdynia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 32:55 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. D. Espiau Hernandez (5 goals), N. Rusyn (4 goals), S. Kerk (4 goals), with creative support from S. Kerk (7 assists), Marc Navarro (4 assists), Kike Hermoso (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nieciecza Analysis

Nieciecza sit 18 with 28 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 37:61, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through J. Jimenez (5 goals), K. Kubica (5 goals), K. Zapolnik (5 goals), with creative support from Damian Hilbrycht (3 assists), Sergio Guerrero (2 assists), M. Ambrosiewicz (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Arka Gdynia won 2 times, Nieciecza won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Arka Gdynia's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Arka Gdynia 4-2-3-1 / Nieciecza 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Arka Gdynia wins 2, draws 2, Nieciecza wins 6
Stats
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza Nieciecza
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
3
2 Corner Kicks 4
19 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 2
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Goal 4
7 Shots off Goal 5
5 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 8
8 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 1
324 Total passes 427
238 Passes accurate 333
1.95 expected_goals 1.24
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Arka Gdynia
Formation
Nieciecza
J. Grobelny
J. Grobelny
K. Hermoso
K. Hermoso
M. Marcjanik
M. Marcjanik
D. Abramowicz
D. Abramowicz
D. Kocyla
D. Kocyla
K. Jakubczyk
K. Jakubczyk
M. Rzuchowski
M. Rzuchowski
P. Szysz
P. Szysz
O. Kubiak
🎯
O. Kubiak
V. Gutkovskis
V. Gutkovskis
E. D. Espiau Hernandez
E. D. Espiau Hernandez
A. Chovan
A. Chovan
L. Masoero
🎯
L. Masoero
A. Kasperkiewicz
A. Kasperkiewicz
A. Putivtsev
A. Putivtsev
M. Wolski
M. Wolski
M. Ambrosiewicz
M. Ambrosiewicz
I. Strzalek
I. Strzalek
S. Guerrero
S. Guerrero
D. Hilbrycht
🎯
D. Hilbrycht
K. Zapolnik
K. Zapolnik
J. Jimenez
J. Jimenez
Arka Gdynia 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
J. Grobelny
G
23
K. Hermoso
🟨 38'
D
29
M. Marcjanik
D
33
D. Abramowicz
D
11
D. Kocyla
↓ 68'
M
35
K. Jakubczyk
M
22
M. Rzuchowski
↓ 79'
M
21
P. Szysz
↓ 68'
M
7
O. Kubiak
🎯 45' ↓ 79'
M
19
V. Gutkovskis
⚽ 52'
F
99
E. D. Espiau Hernandez
⚽ 45'
F
Substitutes
77
D. Weglarz
G
9
T. Gaprindashvili
M
2
M. Navarro
↑ 68'
D
37
S. Kerk
↑ 68'
M
94
D. Gojny
↑ 79'
D
10
A. Nguiamba
↑ 79'
M
4
D. Zator
D
3
S. Szota
D
8
A. Sidibe
M
Nieciecza 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
A. Chovan
G
5
L. Masoero
🎯 74'
D
3
A. Kasperkiewicz
⚽ 74' 🟨 25'
D
77
A. Putivtsev
🟨 80'
D
6
M. Wolski
🟨 42'
M
28
M. Ambrosiewicz
↓ 66'
M
86
I. Strzalek
↓ 46'
M
23
S. Guerrero
↓ 90+5'
M
21
D. Hilbrycht
⚽ 12' 🎯 90' 🟨 65'
M
25
K. Zapolnik
F
9
J. Jimenez
F
Substitutes
24
M. Janicki
G
53
A. Trubeha
↑ 46'
F
26
W. Jakubik
↑ 66'
M
19
I. Durdov
⚽ 90' ↑ 89'
F
32
M. Matysik
↑ 90+5'
D
16
P. Surowiec
M
35
K. Surowiec
M
Last matches: Arka Gdynia
18.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Luzino
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Olimpia Grudziądz
2
4
L
03.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Petrolul Ploiesti
2
0
W
28.06.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
GKS Katowice
0
2
L
23.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Raków Częstochowa
0
3
L
13.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Gornik Zabrze
0
0
D
08.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lech Poznan
1
1
D
27.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Piast Gliwice
1
4
L
19.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
L
12.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Cracovia Krakow
2
2
D
07.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Zaglebie Lubin
3
1
W
22.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Korona Kielce
0
3
L
15.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Widzew Łódź
0
0
D
09.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Wisla Plock
3
0
W
05.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Radomiak Radom
1
3
L
27.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lechia Gdansk
2
2
D
22.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
GKS Katowice
2
1
W
15.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Pogon Szczecin
0
1
L
07.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Legia Warszawa
2
2
D
20.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Radnicki NIS
2
0
W
Last matches: Nieciecza
18.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Podbeskidzie
1
1
D
17.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Korona Kielce
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Resovia Rzeszów
4
0
W
27.06.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Wisla Krakow
4
3
W
20.06.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Unia Tarnow
5
0
W
23.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
3
2
W
10.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Legia Warszawa
0
1
L
03.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
GKS Katowice
1
5
L
24.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Zaglebie Lubin
2
1
W
19.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Wisla Plock
1
3
L
11.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Widzew Łódź
0
1
L
06.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Piast Gliwice
3
2
W
22.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Lech Poznan
1
4
L
13.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Motor Lublin
1
2
L
07.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Korona Kielce
1
2
L
01.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Radomiak Radom
1
1
D
21.02.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Raków Częstochowa
0
1
L
16.02.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Gornik Zabrze
1
1
D
H2H: Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza
18.05.26
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
3
L
21.11.25
H2H
Nieciecza
Arka Gdynia
2
0
L
04.05.25
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
1
W
26.10.24
H2H
Nieciecza
Arka Gdynia
2
1
L
11.12.23
H2H
Nieciecza
Arka Gdynia
2
1
L
21.07.23
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
2
D
03.06.23
H2H
Nieciecza
Arka Gdynia
2
1
L
06.11.22
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
1
2
L
21.04.21
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
1
1
D
25.09.20
H2H
Nieciecza
Arka Gdynia
0
1
W
Last matches: Arka Gdynia
18.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Luzino
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Olimpia Grudziądz
2
4
L
03.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Petrolul Ploiesti
2
0
W
13.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Gornik Zabrze
0
0
D
19.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
L
07.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Zaglebie Lubin
3
1
W
15.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Widzew Łódź
0
0
D
27.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lechia Gdansk
2
2
D
22.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
GKS Katowice
2
1
W
07.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Legia Warszawa
2
2
D
20.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Radnicki NIS
2
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
4
1
W
15.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Gangwon FC
4
0
W
10.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Csikszereda
1
1
D
06.12.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Motor Lublin
1
0
W
30.11.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Raków Częstochowa
1
4
L
09.11.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lech Poznan
3
1
W
25.10.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Piast Gliwice
2
1
W
04.10.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Cracovia Krakow
2
1
W
20.09.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Korona Kielce
0
0
D
H2H at home: Arka Gdynia
18.05.26
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
3
L
04.05.25
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
1
W
21.07.23
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
2
D
06.11.22
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
1
2
L
21.04.21
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
1
1
D
Last matches: Nieciecza
17.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Korona Kielce
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
0
W
27.06.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Wisla Krakow
4
3
W
20.06.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Unia Tarnow
5
0
W
03.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
GKS Katowice
1
5
L
24.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Zaglebie Lubin
2
1
W
11.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Widzew Łódź
0
1
L
22.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Lech Poznan
1
4
L
07.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Korona Kielce
1
2
L
21.02.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Raków Częstochowa
0
1
L
08.02.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Pogon Szczecin
1
1
D
13.01.26
Fri
Nieciecza
IMT Novi Beograd
3
1
W
29.11.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
1
5
L
09.11.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Legia Warszawa
2
1
W
20.10.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Wisla Plock
1
3
L
27.09.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Piast Gliwice
2
4
L
14.09.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Motor Lublin
1
1
D
22.08.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Radomiak Radom
1
1
D
08.08.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Gornik Zabrze
1
0
W
H2H away: Nieciecza
18.05.26
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
3
W
04.05.25
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
1
L
21.07.23
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
2
D
06.11.22
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
1
2
W
21.04.21
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
1
1
D

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation