POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
18.05.2026 17:00
Stadion Miejski w Gdyni
Referee: L. Kuzma
Arka Gdynia
Match Timeline
Nieciecza
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
D. Hilbrycht
Nieciecza
🟨
25'
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Nieciecza
🟨
38'
Kike Hermoso
Arka Gdynia
🟨
42'
Maciej Wolski
Nieciecza
VAR
45+7'
Eduardo Espiau
Arka Gdynia
⚽
45'
E. D. Espiau Hernandez · Assist: O. Kubiak
Arka Gdynia
🔄
46'
I. Strzalek ↔ A. Trubeha
Nieciecza
⚽
52'
V. Gutkovskis
Arka Gdynia
🟨
65'
Damian Hilbrycht
Nieciecza
🔄
66'
M. Ambrosiewicz ↔ W. Jakubik
Nieciecza
🔄
68'
D. Kocyla ↔ M. Navarro
Arka Gdynia
🔄
68'
P. Szysz ↔ S. Kerk
Arka Gdynia
⚽
74'
A. Kasperkiewicz · Assist: L. Masoero
Nieciecza
🔄
79'
O. Kubiak ↔ D. Gojny
Arka Gdynia
🔄
79'
M. Rzuchowski ↔ A. Nguiamba
Arka Gdynia
🟨
80'
Artem Putivtsev
Nieciecza
🔄
89'
↔ I. Durdov
Nieciecza
🔄
90+5'
S. Guerrero ↔ M. Matysik
Nieciecza
⚽
90'
I. Durdov · Assist: D. Hilbrycht
Nieciecza

Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 33.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 22.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
33.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
22.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Arka Gdynia Win 57.5%
Draw 5.8%
Nieciecza Win 36.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arka Gdynia1.36
Nieciecza1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
WWDLW
32 GF / 55 GA
Nieciecza Nieciecza
WLDWL
37 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.91
16
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
17
3.31
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 32 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza 32 matches
Arka Gdynia Statistic Nieciecza
9 Wins 7
9 Draws 7
14 Losses 18
32 Goals For 37
55 Goals Against 61
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.91
16 BTTS Yes 22
23 Over 1.5 27
19 Over 2.5 17
12 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 3
13 Failed To Score 7
3.31 Shots On Goal 4.22
10.34 Total Shots 12.78
4.19 Corners 4.5
45% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arka Gdynia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nieciecza in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nieciecza having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nieciecza arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nieciecza.

Arka Gdynia Analysis

With 36 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Arka Gdynia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 32:55 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. D. Espiau Hernandez (5 goals), N. Rusyn (4 goals), S. Kerk (4 goals), with creative support from S. Kerk (7 assists), Marc Navarro (4 assists), Kike Hermoso (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nieciecza Analysis

Nieciecza sit 18 with 28 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 37:61, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through J. Jimenez (5 goals), K. Kubica (5 goals), K. Zapolnik (5 goals), with creative support from Damian Hilbrycht (3 assists), Sergio Guerrero (2 assists), M. Ambrosiewicz (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Arka Gdynia won 2 times, Nieciecza won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Arka Gdynia's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Arka Gdynia 4-2-3-1 / Nieciecza 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Arka Gdynia wins 2, draws 2, Nieciecza wins 6

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation