Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
54.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
78.9%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
79.2%
|
- |
Almeria
Malaga
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Almeria
37 matches
Malaga
37 matches
| Almeria | Statistic | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wins | 18 |
| 7 | Draws | 9 |
| 11 | Losses | 10 |
| 70 | Goals For | 62 |
| 54 | Goals Against | 44 |
| 1.89 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.68 |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.19 |
| 26 | BTTS Yes | 22 |
| 32 | Over 1.5 | 28 |
| 26 | Over 2.5 | 22 |
| 14 | Over 3.5 | 10 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 10 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 5.47 | Shots On Goal | 5 |
| 14.78 | Total Shots | 12.92 |
| 4.83 | Corners | 3.92 |
| 51.6% | Ball Possession | 48.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Almeria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Malaga in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Malaga having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Malaga.
Almeria come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 61 points after 35 matches. The return of 18 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with goals at 67:52, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Arribas (21 goals), A. Embarba (12 goals), Leo Baptistao (7 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (8 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), Arnau Puigmal (5 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 12 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Placed 4 with 60 points from 35 outings, Malaga continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 17 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 58:41 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Chupe (17 goals), A. Nino (9 goals), David Larrubia (9 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (4 assists), Chupe (3 assists), David Larrubia (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Álex Pastor, H. Abaida unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 6 times, Malaga won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:14 from Almeria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.
Almeria
6
4
9
6
4
3
Lineups
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Valladolid
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
Las Palmas
Almeria
Burgos
Almeria
Mirandes
Almeria
Granada CF
Almeria
Racing Santander
Almeria
Leganes
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
Almeria
Huesca
Almeria
Zaragoza
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
Almeria
Albacete
Almeria
Cordoba
Almeria
FC Andorra
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Zaragoza
Malaga
Racing Santander
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
Eibar
Malaga
Castellón
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
FC Andorra
Malaga
Leganes
Malaga
Cadiz
Malaga
Huesca
Malaga
Valladolid
Malaga
Granada CF
Malaga
Albacete
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Valladolid
Almeria
Las Palmas
Almeria
Mirandes
Almeria
Leganes
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
Almeria
Cordoba
Almeria
FC Andorra
Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Almeria
Granada CF
Almeria
Burgos
Almeria
Huesca
Almeria
Cadiz
Almeria
Eibar
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Zaragoza
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Zaragoza
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
Eibar
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
FC Andorra
Malaga
Cadiz
Malaga
Granada CF
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
Malaga
Mirandes
Malaga
Cordoba
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
Albacete
Malaga
CF Talavera
Malaga
Valladolid
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
Malaga
Castellón
Malaga
Estepona
Malaga
Leganes
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 90:61 | 29 | 82 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 42 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 65:44 | 21 | 77 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 |
Almeria
Home
|
42 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 81:63 | 18 | 74 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
| 4 |
Malaga
Away
|
42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 75:52 | 23 | 73 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
| 5 | 42 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 57:40 | 17 | 73 |
D
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 70:51 | 19 | 72 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 48:33 | 15 | 72 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 8 | 42 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 52:40 | 12 | 67 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 60:54 | 6 | 61 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 57:61 | -4 | 61 |
D
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 11 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 51:63 | -12 | 61 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 12 | 42 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 56:55 | 1 | 59 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 13 | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 62:54 | 8 | 58 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 50:56 | -6 | 48 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 52:61 | -9 | 47 |
D
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 16 | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 43:51 | -8 | 46 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 44:57 | -13 | 46 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 41:61 | -20 | 43 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 42 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 47:69 | -22 | 40 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 41:63 | -22 | 38 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 21 | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 39:68 | -29 | 37 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 22 | 42 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 35:59 | -24 | 36 |
L
D
L
L
L
|