SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
UD Almeria Stadium
Referee: J. A. Gonzalez Esteban
Almeria
Match Timeline
Malaga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
André Horta
Almeria
🟨
24'
Rafa Rodriguez
Malaga
🟨
36'
Javi Montero
Malaga
50'
A. Embarba · Assist: M. de la Fuente
Almeria
63'
A. Embarba · Assist: A. Munoz
Almeria
🔄
64'
R. Rodriguez ↔ A. Nino
Malaga
🔄
64'
J. Dorrio ↔ A. Ochoa
Malaga
67'
A. Nino · Assist: A. Ochoa
Malaga
🔄
72'
A. Puigmal ↔ Leo Baptistao
Almeria
🔄
72'
A. Horta ↔ Gui Guedes
Almeria
🔄
78'
M. de la Fuente ↔ Thalys
Almeria
🔄
82'
J. Montero ↔ E. Galilea
Malaga
🔄
82'
J. Munoz ↔ H. Abaida
Malaga
84'
H. Abaida · Assist: A. Nino
Malaga
🔄
87'
A. Embarba ↔ J. Morcillo
Almeria
🟨
90+7'
Thalys
Almeria
🟥
90+9'
Daijiro Chirino
Almeria
🟨
90+2'
Carlos Puga
Malaga
🟥
90+9'
Ramón Enríquez
Malaga
🔄
90+2'
C. Dotor ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
90'
Leo Baptistao · Assist: J. Morcillo
Almeria

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 79.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
79.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Almeria Win 54.4%
Draw 7.8%
Malaga Win 37.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almeria1.61
Malaga1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almeria Almeria
WWDLW
70 GF / 54 GA
Malaga Malaga
WLDWL
62 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
26
BTTS Yes
22
26
Over 2.5
22
5.47
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almeria Almeria 37 matches
Malaga Malaga 37 matches
Almeria Statistic Malaga
19 Wins 18
7 Draws 9
11 Losses 10
70 Goals For 62
54 Goals Against 44
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
26 BTTS Yes 22
32 Over 1.5 28
26 Over 2.5 22
14 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 10
4 Failed To Score 6
5.47 Shots On Goal 5
14.78 Total Shots 12.92
4.83 Corners 3.92
51.6% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Almeria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Malaga in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Malaga having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Malaga.

Almeria Analysis

Almeria come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 61 points after 35 matches. The return of 18 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with goals at 67:52, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Arribas (21 goals), A. Embarba (12 goals), Leo Baptistao (7 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (8 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), Arnau Puigmal (5 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 12 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Malaga Analysis

Placed 4 with 60 points from 35 outings, Malaga continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 17 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 58:41 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Chupe (17 goals), A. Nino (9 goals), David Larrubia (9 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (4 assists), Chupe (3 assists), David Larrubia (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Álex Pastor, H. Abaida unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 6 times, Malaga won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:14 from Almeria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Almeria 4-2-3-1 / Malaga 4-4-2
Missing players: Almeria 0, Malaga 2
H2H summary: Almeria wins 6, draws 5, Malaga wins 4
Stats
Almeria Almeria
Malaga Malaga
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 5
18 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 4
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Goal 4
9 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 10
8 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
400 Total passes 470
333 Passes accurate 387
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Almeria
Formation
Malaga
A. Fernandez
A. Fernandez
D. Chirino
D. Chirino
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely
F. Bonini
F. Bonini
A. Munoz
🎯
A. Munoz
S. Dzodic
S. Dzodic
A. Horta
A. Horta
A. Puigmal
A. Puigmal
S. Arribas
S. Arribas
A. Embarba
⚽ 2
A. Embarba
M. de la Fuente
🎯
M. de la Fuente
A. Herrero
A. Herrero
C. Puga
C. Puga
D. Murillo
D. Murillo
J. Montero
J. Montero
Rafita
Rafita
I. Merino
I. Merino
R. Rodriguez
R. Rodriguez
J. Dorrio
J. Dorrio
C. Dotor
C. Dotor
J. Munoz
J. Munoz
Chupe
Chupe
Almeria 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Fernandez
G
22
D. Chirino
🟥 90+9'
D
5
Rodrigo Ely
D
18
F. Bonini
D
3
A. Munoz
🎯 63'
D
29
S. Dzodic
M
6
A. Horta
↓ 72' 🟨 8'
M
2
A. Puigmal
↓ 72'
M
11
S. Arribas
M
23
A. Embarba
⚽ 50' ⚽ 63' ↓ 87'
M
24
M. de la Fuente
🎯 50' ↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
13
F. Martinez
G
31
B. Iribarne
G
21
Chumi
D
9
Thalys
↑ 78' 🟨 90+7'
F
16
M. Luna
D
12
Leo Baptistao
⚽ 90' ↑ 72'
F
4
N. Monte
D
7
J. Morcillo
🎯 90' ↑ 87'
F
19
P. Soko
F
20
A. Centelles
D
8
Gui Guedes
↑ 72'
M
Malaga 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Herrero
G
3
C. Puga
🟨 90+2'
D
16
D. Murillo
D
20
J. Montero
↓ 82' 🟨 36'
D
31
Rafita
D
23
I. Merino
M
37
R. Rodriguez
↓ 64' 🟨 24'
M
25
J. Dorrio
↓ 64'
M
12
C. Dotor
↓ 90+2'
M
11
J. Munoz
↓ 82'
M
9
Chupe
F
Substitutes
13
C. Lopez
G
5
D. Brasanac
M
4
E. Galilea
↑ 82'
D
14
V. Garcia
D
17
E. Jauregi
F
24
J. Lobete
F
21
A. Nino
⚽ 67' 🎯 84' ↑ 64'
F
6
R. Enriquez
↑ 90+2' 🟥 90+9'
M
7
H. Abaida
⚽ 84' ↑ 82'
F
36
A. Recio
D
2
J. Gabilondo
D
35
A. Ochoa
🎯 67' ↑ 64'
M
Last matches: Almeria
20.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
14.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
09.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
3
2
W
06.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
1
1
D
31.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Valladolid
1
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
1
3
L
16.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Las Palmas
1
2
L
09.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Burgos
0
0
D
04.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Mirandes
4
2
W
26.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Granada CF
4
2
W
12.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Racing Santander
1
5
L
05.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Leganes
2
1
W
02.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
0
2
L
29.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
5
1
W
20.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Huesca
3
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Zaragoza
0
2
L
09.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
3
0
W
27.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Albacete
1
1
D
21.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cordoba
2
1
W
13.02.26
Seg
Almeria
FC Andorra
3
2
W
Last matches: Malaga
20.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
W
14.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
10.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
1
D
07.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
2
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Racing Santander
1
1
D
16.05.26
Seg
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
4
1
W
09.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
02.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Eibar
4
2
W
25.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
2
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
2
0
W
04.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
01.04.26
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
3
3
D
28.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
0
D
21.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
3
0
W
15.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Huesca
5
3
W
07.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
3
3
D
28.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
1
0
W
22.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
1
0
W
16.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
1
2
L
H2H: Almeria vs Malaga
20.06.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
14.06.26
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
19.04.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
W
21.12.25
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
L
26.07.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
01.03.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
2
D
08.12.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
27.07.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
W
27.07.23
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
1
L
12.02.22
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
W
04.09.21
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
0
W
31.07.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
30.03.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
3
W
13.12.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
1
W
20.07.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
Last matches: Almeria
20.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
09.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
3
2
W
31.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Valladolid
1
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Las Palmas
1
2
L
04.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Mirandes
4
2
W
05.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Leganes
2
1
W
29.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
5
1
W
09.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
3
0
W
21.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cordoba
2
1
W
13.02.26
Seg
Almeria
FC Andorra
3
2
W
01.02.26
Seg
Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
4
2
W
17.01.26
Seg
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
1
2
L
03.01.26
Seg
Almeria
Granada CF
3
2
W
14.12.25
Seg
Almeria
Burgos
1
2
L
29.11.25
Seg
Almeria
Huesca
0
0
D
16.11.25
Seg
Almeria
Cadiz
3
0
W
01.11.25
Seg
Almeria
Eibar
3
1
W
26.10.25
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
1
0
W
11.10.25
Seg
Almeria
Zaragoza
4
2
W
20.09.25
Seg
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
H2H at home: Almeria
20.06.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
19.04.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
W
26.07.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
01.03.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
2
D
27.07.23
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
1
L
04.09.21
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
0
W
13.12.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
1
W
20.07.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
Last matches: Malaga
20.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
W
07.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
2
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
4
1
W
02.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Eibar
4
2
W
04.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
01.04.26
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
3
3
D
21.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
3
0
W
28.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
1
0
W
16.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
1
2
L
02.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Mirandes
1
2
L
18.01.26
Seg
Malaga
Cordoba
1
0
W
04.01.26
Seg
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
3
1
W
14.12.25
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
3
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Malaga
CF Talavera
1
2
L
29.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
1
1
D
17.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
0
1
L
02.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
1
2
L
30.10.25
Cop
Malaga
Estepona
3
1
W
19.10.25
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
2
L
H2H away: Malaga
20.06.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
W
19.04.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
L
26.07.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
W
01.03.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
2
D
27.07.23
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
1
W
04.09.21
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
0
L
13.12.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
1
L
20.07.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation

Missing Players

Almeria 0 missing
No missing players data
Malaga 2 missing
-
Álex Pastor
Missing Fixture Wound
OUT
-
H. Abaida
Missing Fixture Jumpers knee
OUT