03.10.2026 14:15
UD Almería Stadium
Referee: Iosu Galech Apezteguia
Almeria
Match Timeline
Burgos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
19'
Mikel Vesga ↔ Quim junyent
Almeria
🟨
33'
Léo Baptistão
Almeria
🟨
37'
Brais Martínez
Burgos
⚽
40'
Jon Karrikaburu · Assist: Javier Llabrés Exposito
Burgos
🟨
49'
Marcos Luna
Almeria
🔄
58'
Léo Baptistão ↔ Adrián Embarba
Almeria
🔄
59'
Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo ↔ Miguel De La Fuente
Almeria
🔄
59'
Marcos Luna ↔ Daijiro Chirino
Almeria
🔄
63'
Curro ↔ Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña
Burgos
🔄
63'
Jon Karrikaburu ↔ Álex Forés
Burgos
🔄
63'
Javier Llabrés Exposito ↔ Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios
Burgos
🔄
71'
Brais Martínez ↔ Pablo Galdames
Burgos
🟨
74'
Alberto Dadie
Burgos
🟨
77'
Pablo Galdames
Burgos
⚽
77'
Brian Cipenga · Assist: Sergio Arribas Calvo
Almeria
🔄
82'
Alberto Dadie ↔ Victor Mollejo
Burgos
⚽
84'
Miguel De La Fuente
Almeria
🔄
87'
Leonardo Lelo ↔ Álex Muñoz
Almeria

Almeria vs Burgos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 48.4%
Odds 1.58
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.92
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
48.4%
1.58 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.92 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71%
1.26 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Almeria Win 48.4%
Draw 16%
Burgos Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almeria1.27
Burgos0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almeria Almeria
WWDLW
18 GF / 7 GA
Burgos Burgos
WLDWL
15 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.25
0.58
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
1
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
5
3.71
Shots on Goal
2.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almeria Almeria 12 matches
Burgos Burgos 12 matches
Almeria Statistic Burgos
8 Wins 6
0 Draws 4
4 Losses 2
18 Goals For 15
7 Goals Against 11
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
0.58 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
1 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 4
3.71 Shots On Goal 2.71
11.71 Total Shots 10
3.43 Corners 3.43
52.9% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Almeria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Burgos in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Burgos having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Burgos. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Almeria Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 12 points from 6 games, Almeria bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a 10:4 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Javi Muñoz (2 goals), Nico Melamed (2 goals), B. Cipenga (1 goals), with creative support from B. Cipenga (3 assists), Javi Muñoz (2 assists), Nico Melamed (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Burgos Analysis

Burgos sit 6 with 11 points after 6 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 10:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Álex Forés (3 goals), David González (2 goals), Jon Karrikaburu (1 goals), with creative support from Jon Karrikaburu (2 assists), David González (1 assists), Javi Llabrés (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 3 times, Burgos won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:5 from Almeria's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.1%)
Predicted formations: Almeria 4-2-3-1 / Burgos 4-4-2
H2H summary: Almeria wins 3, draws 1, Burgos wins 2

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 14:2 12 19
W W W W W
2 7 6 0 1 15:6 9 18
W W W W W
3 7 5 0 2 11:4 7 15
W W W W L
4 7 4 2 1 11:7 4 14
W W W D D
5 7 4 1 2 14:8 6 13
W W L W W
6 7 4 1 2 8:3 5 13
L W W D W
7 7 3 3 1 8:6 2 12
D W L W W
8 8 3 2 3 8:8 0 11
L W L W D
9 7 3 2 2 8:9 -1 11
D L W D L
10 7 3 2 2 6:7 -1 11
L W L D W
11 7 3 1 3 10:11 -1 10
L L W D L
12 7 3 1 3 5:6 -1 10
L W L L W
13 7 2 2 3 10:11 -1 8
L L D L W
14 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
L L W D D
15 8 2 2 4 8:10 -2 8
W L L W D
16 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
D L L W L
17 7 2 2 3 6:9 -3 8
W D L W D
18 7 2 0 5 12:15 -3 6
W L L L L
19 7 2 0 5 10:16 -6 6
L W L L L
20 7 0 4 3 7:10 -3 4
D L L L D
21 7 1 1 5 6:17 -11 4
W D L L L
22 7 0 1 6 4:12 -8 1
L L D L L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation