Almeria vs Burgos Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
48.4%
|
1.58 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
62.8%
|
2.00 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
58.6%
|
1.92 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
71%
|
1.26 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
2.50 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
8.50 |
Almeria
Burgos
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Almeria
12 matches
Burgos
12 matches
| Almeria | Statistic | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wins | 6 |
| 0 | Draws | 4 |
| 4 | Losses | 2 |
| 18 | Goals For | 15 |
| 7 | Goals Against | 11 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.25 |
| 0.58 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
| 1 | BTTS Yes | 5 |
| 7 | Over 1.5 | 7 |
| 3 | Over 2.5 | 5 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 3.71 | Shots On Goal | 2.71 |
| 11.71 | Total Shots | 10 |
| 3.43 | Corners | 3.43 |
| 52.9% | Ball Possession | 49.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Almeria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Burgos in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Burgos having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Burgos. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Operating from 5 place with 12 points from 6 games, Almeria bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a 10:4 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Javi Muñoz (2 goals), Nico Melamed (2 goals), B. Cipenga (1 goals), with creative support from B. Cipenga (3 assists), Javi Muñoz (2 assists), Nico Melamed (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Burgos sit 6 with 11 points after 6 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 10:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Álex Forés (3 goals), David González (2 goals), Jon Karrikaburu (1 goals), with creative support from Jon Karrikaburu (2 assists), David González (1 assists), Javi Llabrés (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 3 times, Burgos won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:5 from Almeria's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14:2 | 12 | 19 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15:6 | 9 | 18 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 |
Almeria
Home
|
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 7 | 15 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
| 4 |
Burgos
Away
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11:7 | 4 | 14 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:8 | 6 | 13 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:3 | 5 | 13 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8:6 | 2 | 12 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 11 |
L
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 11 |
D
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 11 |
L
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10:11 | -1 | 10 |
L
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:6 | -1 | 10 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:11 | -1 | 8 |
L
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 |
W
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 6 |
W
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:16 | -6 | 6 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 4 |
D
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:17 | -11 | 4 |
W
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4:12 | -8 | 1 |
L
L
D
L
L
|