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25.10.2026 05:00
Toyota Stadium
Referee: Koki Nagamine
Nagoya Grampus
Match Timeline
Yokohama F. Marinos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
14'
Jordy Croux · Assist: Ryo Miyaichi
Yokohama F. Marinos
🔄
45'
Shuhei Tokumoto ↔ Yuki Nogami
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
45'
Tsukasa Morishima ↔ Yota Sato
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
53'
Takuya Uchida
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
55'
Takuto Kimura
Yokohama F. Marinos
🔄
59'
Jordy Croux ↔ Tomoki Kondo
Yokohama F. Marinos
🔄
68'
Rio Nitta ↔ Tevis Gabriel Alves Santos
Yokohama F. Marinos
🔄
68'
Takuto Kimura ↔ Taisei Inoue
Yokohama F. Marinos
🔄
68'
Ryo Miyaichi ↔ Shin Miidera
Yokohama F. Marinos
🔄
71'
Takuya Uchida ↔ Hidemasa Koda
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
72'
Ryuji Izumi ↔ Masahito Ono
Nagoya Grampus
⚽
74'
Yuya Yamagishi · Assist: Tomoki Takamine
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
78'
Toichi Suzuki ↔ Thomas Deng
Yokohama F. Marinos
🟨
82'
Stephen Christopher Corica
Yokohama F. Marinos
🔄
85'
Katsuhiro Nakayama ↔ Tomoya Koyamatsu
Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 43%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
43%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nagoya Grampus Win 39.8%
Draw 17.2%
Yokohama F. Marinos Win 43%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nagoya Grampus1.11
Yokohama F. Marinos1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
D W W L L
6 GF / 6 GA
Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos
D D D W D
5 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
3
3.73
Shots on Goal
3.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 11 matches
Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 11 matches
Nagoya Grampus Statistic Yokohama F. Marinos
4 Wins 4
1 Draws 5
6 Losses 2
13 Goals For 15
17 Goals Against 11
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 2
3.73 Shots On Goal 3.18
13.36 Total Shots 11.64
4.73 Corners 3.91
57.3% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Yokohama F. Marinos's more proactive style and Nagoya Grampus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Yokohama F. Marinos. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nagoya Grampus expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Yokohama F. Marinos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Yokohama F. Marinos having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Nagoya Grampus have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Nagoya Grampus sit 12 with 12 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats with a 12:16 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Y. Kimura (2 goals), Y. Yamagishi (2 goals), Y. Asano (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Kimura (1 assists), Y. Asano (1 assists), R. Izumi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis

Yokohama F. Marinos are currently 8 in the standings with 16 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 13:9 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Tanimura (4 goals), J. Quiñónes (1 goals), T. Inoue (1 goals), with creative support from K. Matsumura (2 assists), T. Kondo (2 assists), J. Amano (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 6 times, Yokohama F. Marinos won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:27 from Nagoya Grampus's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.8%)
Predicted formations: Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1 / Yokohama F. Marinos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nagoya Grampus wins 6, draws 2, Yokohama F. Marinos wins 7

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 33:8 25 33
W W W D W
2 14 10 1 3 31:20 11 31
W W W D L
3 14 9 3 2 32:10 22 30
D W W L W
4 14 8 5 1 30:10 20 29
D D D W W
5 14 8 3 3 23:14 9 27
D W D L W
6 14 7 2 5 29:24 5 23
L W L D W
7 14 5 7 2 21:15 6 22
D W D D D
8 14 6 4 4 28:24 4 22
L L W W W
9 14 7 1 6 23:29 -6 22
D L W W W
10 14 5 2 7 16:22 -6 17
D L L W L
11 14 4 5 5 16:25 -9 17
W L D D L
12 14 4 4 6 19:23 -4 16
W W D D L
13 14 4 2 8 15:23 -8 14
L L D D W
14 14 3 5 6 12:22 -10 14
W W W D L
15 14 4 2 8 10:23 -13 14
L L L L D
16 14 3 4 7 17:22 -5 13
D L L W L
17 14 3 4 7 16:24 -8 13
W W D L D
18 14 2 6 6 16:24 -8 12
L D D W D
19 14 2 3 9 12:26 -14 9
L L L L L
20 14 2 2 10 14:25 -11 8
D L L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League