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25.10.2026 06:00
Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium
Referee: Koei Koya
Cerezo Osaka
Match Timeline
JEF United Chiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
23'
Makoto Himeno · Assist: Erison Danilo de Souza
JEF United Chiba
🟨
26'
Lucas Fernandes
Cerezo Osaka
🟨
40'
Takumi Tsukui
JEF United Chiba
🔄
45'
Takumi Nakamura ↔ Solomon Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
47'
Erison Danilo de Souza · Assist: Hiroto Goya
JEF United Chiba
🟨
52'
Hiroto Goya
JEF United Chiba
🔄
59'
Takuya Yasui ↔ Taishi Taguchi
JEF United Chiba
🔄
61'
Hiroto Goya ↔ Ken Yamura
JEF United Chiba
🔄
61'
Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco ↔ Matheus Salgueiro Pains
JEF United Chiba
🟨
65'
Solomon Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
67'
Yota Komi ↔ Yumeki Yokoyama
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
67'
Makoto Himeno ↔ Kazuki Tanaka
JEF United Chiba
🔄
68'
Koji Toriumi ↔ Daisuke Suzuki
JEF United Chiba
🔄
74'
Erison Danilo de Souza ↔ Naohiro Sugiyama
JEF United Chiba
🔄
74'
Lucas Fernandes ↔ Shinji Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka
🟨
78'
Yoshiyuki Kobayashi
JEF United Chiba
🔄
88'
Shunta Tanaka ↔ Satoki Uejo
Cerezo Osaka
🟨
90+1'
Dion Cools
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
90+6'
Solomon Sakuragawa · Assist: Rikito Inoue
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
90+8'
Yumeki Yokoyama · Assist: Ayumu Ohata
Cerezo Osaka

Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerezo Osaka Win 78.3%
Draw 13.2%
JEF United Chiba Win 8.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerezo Osaka1.35
JEF United Chiba1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
D L D D L
5 GF / 12 GA
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
L D D L D
5 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
2
5
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
6
3.27
Shots on Goal
3.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 11 matches
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 11 matches
Cerezo Osaka Statistic JEF United Chiba
3 Wins 1
4 Draws 3
4 Losses 7
10 Goals For 10
17 Goals Against 22
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 2
5 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 4
3.27 Shots On Goal 3.64
11.64 Total Shots 11.18
5.18 Corners 3.55
53.3% Ball Possession 45.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward JEF United Chiba. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerezo Osaka expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and JEF United Chiba in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward JEF United Chiba having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Cerezo Osaka arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 13 with 12 points compared to JEF United Chiba in 19 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

Cerezo Osaka are currently 13 in the standings with 12 points from 10 matches. The record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 9:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Sakuragawa (3 goals), Lucas Fernandes (2 goals), Thiago Andrade (1 goals), with creative support from S. Kagawa (2 assists), S. Tanaka (1 assists), J. Irvine (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

JEF United Chiba sit 19 with 6 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 8:19 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Tsukui (1 goals), K. Yamura (1 goals), Matheus Índio (1 goals), with creative support from R. Ishio (1 assists), T. Taguchi (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 1 times, JEF United Chiba won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:10 from Cerezo Osaka's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.5%)
Predicted formations: Cerezo Osaka 3-4-2-1 / JEF United Chiba 4-4-2
H2H summary: Cerezo Osaka wins 1, draws 2, JEF United Chiba wins 2

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 33:8 25 33
W W W D W
2 14 10 1 3 31:20 11 31
W W W D L
3 14 9 3 2 32:10 22 30
D W W L W
4 14 8 5 1 30:10 20 29
D D D W W
5 14 8 3 3 23:14 9 27
D W D L W
6 14 7 2 5 29:24 5 23
L W L D W
7 14 5 7 2 21:15 6 22
D W D D D
8 14 6 4 4 28:24 4 22
L L W W W
9 14 7 1 6 23:29 -6 22
D L W W W
10 14 5 2 7 16:22 -6 17
D L L W L
11 14 4 5 5 16:25 -9 17
W L D D L
12 14 4 4 6 19:23 -4 16
W W D D L
13 14 4 2 8 15:23 -8 14
L L D D W
14 14 3 5 6 12:22 -10 14
W W W D L
15 14 4 2 8 10:23 -13 14
L L L L D
16 14 3 4 7 17:22 -5 13
D L L W L
17 14 3 4 7 16:24 -8 13
W W D L D
18 14 2 6 6 16:24 -8 12
L D D W D
19 14 2 3 9 12:26 -14 9
L L L L L
20 14 2 2 10 14:25 -11 8
D L L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League