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25.10.2026 06:00
Saitama Stadium 2002
Referee: Masuya Ueda
Urawa
Match Timeline
V-varen Nagasaki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
64'
Hayate Ueki ↔ Shuta Sasa
Urawa
🔄
64'
Ado Onaiwu ↔ Hiiro Komori
Urawa
🔄
68'
Tenmu Matsumoto ↔ Kenshin Yasuda
V-varen Nagasaki
⚽
71'
Matheus Sávio · Assist: Samuel Gustafson
Urawa
VAR
71'
Matheus Sávio
Urawa
🔄
80'
Shunya Yoneda ↔ Asahi Masuyama
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
80'
Jonathan Junior ↔ Keita Nakamura
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
81'
Takuro Kaneko ↔ Renji Hidano
Urawa
🔄
86'
Hotaru Yamaguchi ↔ Emerson Santana Deocleciano
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
87'
Matheus Sávio ↔ Harumi Minamino
Urawa
🔄
87'
Samuel Gustafson ↔ Yoichi Naganuma
Urawa
🟨
90+1'
Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki

Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Urawa Win 81.7%
Draw 7.9%
V-varen Nagasaki Win 10.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Urawa1.75
V-varen Nagasaki1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Urawa Urawa
W W L W L
8 GF / 8 GA
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
W L D D W
8 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.82
Average Goals Scored
1.36
2.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
8
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
6
4.09
Shots on Goal
3.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Urawa Urawa 11 matches
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 11 matches
Urawa Statistic V-varen Nagasaki
6 Wins 3
0 Draws 3
5 Losses 5
20 Goals For 15
23 Goals Against 18
1.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
2.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
8 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 3
4.09 Shots On Goal 3.73
15.27 Total Shots 11.82
5.18 Corners 3.91
53.6% Ball Possession 43.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Urawa expected to line up in 4-3-3 and V-varen Nagasaki in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward V-varen Nagasaki having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring V-varen Nagasaki. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Urawa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 15 points compared to V-varen Nagasaki in 15 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Urawa Analysis

Urawa are currently 9 in the standings with 15 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, while the 17:21 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Matheus Sávio (3 goals), H. Minamino (3 goals), T. Kaneko (1 goals), with creative support from T. Kaneko (6 assists), R. Watanabe (2 assists), T. Seko (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

With 9 points from 10 games and a place of 15, V-varen Nagasaki still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 11:18 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Thiago Santana (3 goals), Matheus Jesus (3 goals), K. Yasuda (2 goals), with creative support from H. Yamaguchi (2 assists), M. Hasegawa (1 assists), H. Onaga (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Urawa won 0 times, V-varen Nagasaki won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Urawa's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Urawa 4-3-3 / V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Urawa wins 0, draws 2, V-varen Nagasaki wins 1

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 33:8 25 33
W W W D W
2 14 10 1 3 31:20 11 31
W W W D L
3 14 9 3 2 32:10 22 30
D W W L W
4 14 8 5 1 30:10 20 29
D D D W W
5 14 8 3 3 23:14 9 27
D W D L W
6 14 7 2 5 29:24 5 23
L W L D W
7 14 5 7 2 21:15 6 22
D W D D D
8 14 6 4 4 28:24 4 22
L L W W W
9
Urawa Home
14 7 1 6 23:29 -6 22
D L W W W
10 14 5 2 7 16:22 -6 17
D L L W L
11 14 4 5 5 16:25 -9 17
W L D D L
12 14 4 4 6 19:23 -4 16
W W D D L
13 14 4 2 8 15:23 -8 14
L L D D W
14 14 3 5 6 12:22 -10 14
W W W D L
15 14 4 2 8 10:23 -13 14
L L L L D
16 14 3 4 7 17:22 -5 13
D L L W L
17 14 3 4 7 16:24 -8 13
W W D L D
18 14 2 6 6 16:24 -8 12
L D D W D
19 14 2 3 9 12:26 -14 9
L L L L L
20 14 2 2 10 14:25 -11 8
D L L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League