COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
19.09.2026 21:05
Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.3%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alianza Valledupar Win 16%
Draw 11.8%
Santa Fe Win 72.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Valledupar0.88
Santa Fe1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar
WWDLW
20 GF / 43 GA
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WLDWL
55 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
13
BTTS Yes
27
10
Over 2.5
18
2.81
Shots on Goal
4.51

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 28 matches
Santa Fe Santa Fe 38 matches
Alianza Valledupar Statistic Santa Fe
4 Wins 13
11 Draws 17
13 Losses 8
20 Goals For 55
43 Goals Against 43
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
13 BTTS Yes 27
18 Over 1.5 31
10 Over 2.5 18
5 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 5
2.81 Shots On Goal 4.51
11 Total Shots 12.27
4.11 Corners 4.51
44.7% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Santa Fe's more proactive style and Alianza Valledupar's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Santa Fe carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 29 points while Alianza Valledupar sit 17 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Alianza Valledupar have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Valledupar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Santa Fe in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santa Fe having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Santa Fe.

Alianza Valledupar Analysis

Alianza Valledupar sit 17 with 17 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats with a 13:27 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Pardo (3 goals), J. Muñoz (3 goals), Yeiner Londoño (2 goals), with creative support from J. Lasso (3 assists), F. Pardo (2 assists), P. Franco (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santa Fe Analysis

Santa Fe are currently 7 in the standings with 29 points from 19 matches. The record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 29:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Rodallega (13 goals), N. Bustos (7 goals), Omar Fernández (5 goals), with creative support from Omar Fernández (8 assists), N. Bustos (5 assists), F. Fagúndez (4 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Valledupar won 5 times, Santa Fe won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Alianza Valledupar's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.2%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1 / Santa Fe 4-4-2
H2H summary: Alianza Valledupar wins 5, draws 4, Santa Fe wins 6

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W D L D L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W D W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L D L W W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification