COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
30.08.2026 01:30
Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Referee: H. Rivera
Alianza Valledupar
Match Timeline
Atletico Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
A. Sarmiento · Assist: S. Velasquez
Atletico Nacional
🟨
8'
E. W. Meza Mercado
Alianza Valledupar
🟨
16'
W. Tesillo
Atletico Nacional
19'
A. Morelos · Assist: Y. A. Perlaza Perea
Atletico Nacional
24'
M. Moreno · Assist: A. Morelos
Atletico Nacional
🟨
26'
I. Alba
Alianza Valledupar
34'
F. Pardo
Alianza Valledupar
🟨
36'
Y. Rosales
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
36'
I. Alba ↔ M. Martinez
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
46'
E. W. Meza Mercado ↔ C. Esparragoza
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
46'
S. Velasquez ↔ J. Zapata
Atletico Nacional
🔄
57'
Y. Rosales ↔ P. Franco
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
61'
Y. A. Perlaza Perea ↔ X. Rios
Atletico Nacional
🔄
61'
E. Cardona ↔ C. Arango
Atletico Nacional
🔄
69'
F. Pardo ↔ D. Quinones
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
69'
C. Vergara ↔ H. Rada
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
72'
A. Sarmiento ↔ K. Parra Atehortua
Atletico Nacional
79'
M. Moreno · Assist: J. Rengifo
Atletico Nacional
🔄
80'
M. Moreno ↔ J. Rosa
Atletico Nacional
🟨
90+1'
C. Esparragoza
Alianza Valledupar
90'
J. Rosa · Assist: N. Parra
Atletico Nacional

Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.9%
Odds 1.91
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.23
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.9%
1.91
BTTS Yes
75%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.23
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.25
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Alianza Valledupar Win 18.7%
Draw 8.4%
Atletico Nacional Win 72.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Valledupar0.82
Atletico Nacional1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar
WWDLW
18 GF / 35 GA
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WLDWL
58 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.72
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
12
BTTS Yes
14
8
Over 2.5
22
2.83
Shots on Goal
6.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 25 matches
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 32 matches
Alianza Valledupar Statistic Atletico Nacional
3 Wins 21
11 Draws 1
11 Losses 10
18 Goals For 58
35 Goals Against 31
0.72 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
12 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 24
8 Over 2.5 22
4 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 9
2.83 Shots On Goal 6.1
11.25 Total Shots 16.28
4.21 Corners 5.17
46% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Atletico Nacional's more proactive style and Alianza Valledupar's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Atletico Nacional carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 40 points while Alianza Valledupar sit 17 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atletico Nacional. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Alianza Valledupar Analysis

Alianza Valledupar sit 17 with 17 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 13:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Cristian Andres Vergara Rivas (2 goals), Felipe Pardo (1 goals), Misael Martínez (1 goals), with creative support from Jhildrey Lasso (2 assists), Déinner Quiñones (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 19 matches. With 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 35:15, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Alfredo Morelos (1 goals), Marlos Moreno (1 goals), Andrés Sarmiento (1 goals), with creative support from Alfredo Morelos (1 assists), Matheus Uribe (1 assists), Andrés Román (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Valledupar won 2 times, Atletico Nacional won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:30 from Alianza Valledupar's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.7%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Valledupar wins 2, draws 4, Atletico Nacional wins 9

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification