NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
--.--.---- --:--
Johan Cruijff Arena
Referee: J. Manschot
Ajax
Match Timeline
Utrecht
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
Steven Berghuis
Ajax
🟨
15'
Jesper Karlsson
Utrecht
🟨
38'
Dani De Wit
Utrecht
🔄
57'
K. Dolberg ↔ W. Weghorst
Ajax
🔄
58'
O. Gloukh ↔ D. Klaassen
Ajax
🔄
66'
M. Eerdhuijzen ↔ N. Viergever
Utrecht
🔄
66'
J. Karlsson ↔ A. Blake
Utrecht
🔄
73'
S. Berghuis ↔ R. Bounida
Ajax
🔄
73'
Y. Regeer ↔ S. Steur
Ajax
🔄
75'
S. Haller ↔ D. Min
Utrecht
81'
N. Vesterlund · Assist: G. Zechiel
Utrecht
🔄
83'
J. Mokio ↔ O. Edvardsen
Ajax
84'
W. Weghorst · Assist: R. Bounida
Ajax
🟨
88'
Sean Steur
Ajax
🔄
90+2'
Y. Cathline ↔ S. Horemans
Utrecht
90'
M. van der Hoorn · Assist: S. El Karouani
Utrecht

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 79.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
79.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ajax Win 38%
Draw 17.1%
Utrecht Win 44.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ajax1.56
Utrecht1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ajax Ajax
WWDLW
69 GF / 60 GA
Utrecht Utrecht
WLDWL
70 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
26
BTTS Yes
27
25
Over 2.5
23
5.38
Shots on Goal
4.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ajax Ajax 40 matches
Utrecht Utrecht 46 matches
Ajax Statistic Utrecht
16 Wins 18
13 Draws 10
11 Losses 18
69 Goals For 70
60 Goals Against 60
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
26 BTTS Yes 27
39 Over 1.5 37
25 Over 2.5 23
17 Over 3.5 15
9 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 11
5.38 Shots On Goal 4.54
13.6 Total Shots 12.61
4.83 Corners 4.41
55.6% Ball Possession 42.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ajax expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Utrecht in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Utrecht having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Utrecht.

Ajax Analysis

Ajax arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 55 points after 32 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 13 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 61:39 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Godts (17 goals), W. Weghorst (7 goals), D. Klaassen (6 goals), with creative support from M. Godts (12 assists), O. Gloukh (6 assists), W. Weghorst (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Utrecht Analysis

Utrecht sit 8 with 47 points after 32 league matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 51:41 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Zechiel (8 goals), D. de Wit (6 goals), V. Jensen (5 goals), with creative support from Souffian El Karouani (10 assists), G. Zechiel (4 assists), Y. Cathline (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ajax won 7 times, Utrecht won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:22 from Ajax's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.9%)
Predicted formations: Ajax 4-3-3 / Utrecht 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Ajax 5, Utrecht 7
H2H summary: Ajax wins 7, draws 3, Utrecht wins 5
Stats
Ajax Ajax
Utrecht Utrecht
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
5
4 Corner Kicks 7
9 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 0
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Goal 6
7 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 5
10 Shots insidebox 8
5 Shots outsidebox 6
4 Goalkeeper Saves 5
662 Total passes 367
580 Passes accurate 297
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Ajax
Formation
Utrecht
M. Paes
M. Paes
A. Gaaei
A. Gaaei
J. Sutalo
J. Sutalo
Y. Baas
Y. Baas
L. Rosa
L. Rosa
Y. Regeer
Y. Regeer
O. Gloukh
O. Gloukh
J. Mokio
J. Mokio
S. Berghuis
S. Berghuis
K. Dolberg
K. Dolberg
M. Godts
M. Godts
V. Barkas
V. Barkas
N. Vesterlund
N. Vesterlund
M. van der Hoorn
M. van der Hoorn
M. Eerdhuijzen
M. Eerdhuijzen
S. El Karouani
🎯
S. El Karouani
A. Engwanda
A. Engwanda
G. Zechiel
🎯
G. Zechiel
J. Karlsson
J. Karlsson
D. de Wit
D. de Wit
Y. Cathline
Y. Cathline
S. Haller
S. Haller
Ajax 4-3-3
Starting XI
26
M. Paes
G
3
A. Gaaei
D
37
J. Sutalo
D
15
Y. Baas
D
2
L. Rosa
D
6
Y. Regeer
↓ 73'
M
10
O. Gloukh
↓ 58'
M
24
J. Mokio
↓ 83'
M
23
S. Berghuis
↓ 73' 🟨 4'
F
9
K. Dolberg
↓ 57'
F
11
M. Godts
F
Substitutes
52
P. Reverson
G
25
W. Weghorst
⚽ 84' ↑ 57'
F
4
K. Itakura
D
32
T. Tomiyasu
D
17
O. Edvardsen
↑ 83'
F
43
R. Bounida
🎯 84' ↑ 73'
F
45
R. van de Pavert
D
30
A. Bouwman
D
48
S. Steur
↑ 73' 🟨 88'
M
18
D. Klaassen
↑ 58'
M
7
M. Carrizo
F
19
D. Konadu
F
Utrecht 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
V. Barkas
G
23
N. Vesterlund
⚽ 81'
D
3
M. van der Hoorn
⚽ 90'
D
44
M. Eerdhuijzen
↓ 66'
D
16
S. El Karouani
🎯 90'
D
27
A. Engwanda
M
21
G. Zechiel
🎯 81'
M
11
J. Karlsson
↓ 66' 🟨 15'
M
20
D. de Wit
🟨 38'
M
10
Y. Cathline
↓ 90+2'
M
91
S. Haller
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
33
K. Gadellaa
G
51
M. Eppink
G
24
N. Viergever
↑ 66'
D
15
A. Blake
↑ 66'
F
5
E. Adiele
D
2
S. Horemans
↑ 90+2'
D
9
D. Min
↑ 75'
F
43
R. El Arguioui
M
53
N. Viereck
D
57
P. Kloosterboer
D
Last matches: Ajax
26.07.26
Fri
Ajax
Burnley
2
1
W
23.07.26
UEF
Ajax
Vojvodina
4
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Ajax
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
0
W
15.07.26
Fri
Ajax
VfL Bochum
1
1
D
10.07.26
Fri
Ajax
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Ajax
Panathinaikos
1
3
L
24.05.26
Ere
Ajax
Utrecht
0
0
D
21.05.26
Ere
Ajax
Groningen
2
0
W
17.05.26
Ere
Ajax
Heerenveen
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ere
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ere
Ajax
NAC Breda
2
0
W
16.04.26
Fri
Ajax
Twente
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ere
Ajax
Heracles
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ere
Ajax
Twente
1
2
L
25.03.26
Fri
Ajax
FC Volendam
2
2
D
22.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Feyenoord
1
1
D
14.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
4
0
W
07.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Groningen
1
3
L
01.03.26
Ere
Ajax
PEC Zwolle
0
0
D
21.02.26
Ere
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
1
1
D
Last matches: Utrecht
24.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Cambuur
0
1
L
17.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Apollon Limassol
0
1
L
27.06.26
Fri
Utrecht
De Graafschap
1
2
L
24.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
0
0
D
21.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Excelsior
0
5
L
11.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Telstar
4
1
W
04.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
3
4
L
22.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Twente
2
0
W
06.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heracles
0
0
D
01.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
1
1
D
14.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Groningen
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
3
1
W
08.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Feyenoord
0
1
L
01.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
H2H: Ajax vs Utrecht
24.05.26
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
0
0
D
10.05.26
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
1
2
L
09.11.25
H2H
Utrecht
Ajax
2
1
L
20.04.25
H2H
Utrecht
Ajax
4
0
L
04.12.24
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
2
2
D
03.03.24
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
2
0
W
22.10.23
H2H
Utrecht
Ajax
4
3
L
21.05.23
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
3
1
W
28.08.22
H2H
Utrecht
Ajax
0
2
W
16.01.22
H2H
Utrecht
Ajax
0
3
W
03.10.21
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
0
1
L
22.04.21
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
1
1
D
16.12.20
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
5
4
W
08.11.20
H2H
Utrecht
Ajax
0
3
W
13.08.20
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
5
1
W
Last matches: Ajax
26.07.26
Fri
Ajax
Burnley
2
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Ajax
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
0
W
15.07.26
Fri
Ajax
VfL Bochum
1
1
D
10.07.26
Fri
Ajax
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Ajax
Panathinaikos
1
3
L
24.05.26
Ere
Ajax
Utrecht
0
0
D
21.05.26
Ere
Ajax
Groningen
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ere
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
2
2
D
16.04.26
Fri
Ajax
Twente
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ere
Ajax
Twente
1
2
L
25.03.26
Fri
Ajax
FC Volendam
2
2
D
14.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
4
0
W
21.02.26
Ere
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
1
1
D
14.02.26
Ere
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
4
1
W
28.01.26
UEF
Ajax
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
2
L
24.01.26
Ere
Ajax
FC Volendam
2
0
W
17.01.26
Ere
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
2
2
D
05.01.26
Fri
Ajax
Seraing United
4
0
W
14.12.25
Ere
Ajax
Feyenoord
2
0
W
02.12.25
Ere
Ajax
Groningen
2
0
W
H2H at home: Ajax
24.05.26
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
0
0
D
10.05.26
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
1
2
L
04.12.24
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
2
2
D
03.03.24
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
2
0
W
21.05.23
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
3
1
W
03.10.21
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
0
1
L
22.04.21
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
1
1
D
16.12.20
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
5
4
W
13.08.20
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
5
1
W
Last matches: Utrecht
24.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Cambuur
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Excelsior
0
5
L
04.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
3
4
L
15.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Twente
2
0
W
06.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heracles
0
0
D
14.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Groningen
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
3
1
W
01.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
29.01.26
UEF
Utrecht
Celtic
2
4
L
18.01.26
Ere
Utrecht
FC Volendam
1
2
L
14.12.25
Ere
Utrecht
NAC Breda
1
1
D
30.11.25
Ere
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
2
2
D
27.11.25
UEF
Utrecht
Real Betis
1
2
L
23.11.25
Ere
Utrecht
Telstar
1
1
D
26.10.25
Ere
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
1
4
L
23.10.25
UEF
Utrecht
SC Freiburg
0
2
L
05.10.25
Ere
Utrecht
Feyenoord
2
3
L
02.10.25
UEF
Utrecht
Brann
0
1
L
20.09.25
Ere
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
0
1
L
H2H away: Utrecht
24.05.26
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
0
0
D
10.05.26
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
1
2
W
04.12.24
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
2
2
D
03.03.24
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
2
0
L
21.05.23
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
3
1
L
03.10.21
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
0
1
W
22.04.21
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
1
1
D
16.12.20
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
5
4
L
13.08.20
H2H
Ajax
Utrecht
5
1
L

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5
Ajax Home
34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie

Missing Players

Ajax 5 missing
-
V. Jaros
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Zinchenko
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. Fitz-Jim
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
O. Wijndal
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
D. Klaassen
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Utrecht 7 missing
-
V. Jensen
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Rodriguez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
D. de Wit
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
O. Agougil
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. van Ommeren
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Brouwer
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
E. Demircan
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT