CYPRUS 1. DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
AEK Arena
Referee: K. Neofytou
AEK Larnaca
Match Timeline
Pafos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
R. Bajic
AEK Larnaca
31'
Pepe
Pafos
🟨
34'
David Luiz
Pafos
🟨
45+2'
João Correia
Pafos
🟨
55'
Chambos Kyriakou
AEK Larnaca
🔄
58'
G. Naoum ↔ G. Ekpolo
AEK Larnaca
🔄
58'
Jimmy Suarez ↔ Mathias Gonzalez
AEK Larnaca
🔄
64'
D. Quina ↔ Anderson Silva
Pafos
🔄
73'
J. Correia ↔ O. Mimovic
Pafos
🔄
73'
I. Sunjic ↔ Dani Silva
Pafos
🟨
74'
Derrick Luckassen
Pafos
🔄
81'
A. Cardero ↔ C. Loukaidis
AEK Larnaca
🔄
84'
M. Orsic ↔ K. Sema
Pafos
🔄
84'
V. Dragomir ↔ W. Odefalk
Pafos
88'
W. Odefalk
Pafos
🟨
90+6'
Dani Silva
Pafos
🟨
90+1'
Pêpê
Pafos
🔄
90+4'
Miramon ↔ A. Garcia
AEK Larnaca
🔄
90+4'
C. Kyriakou ↔ V. Roberge
AEK Larnaca
90'
H. Milicevic
AEK Larnaca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 55%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
55%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
AEK Larnaca Win 62.6%
Draw 0%
Pafos Win 37.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
AEK Larnaca1.3
Pafos1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
WWDLW
74 GF / 43 GA
Pafos Pafos
WLDWL
78 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.63
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
24
BTTS Yes
22
20
Over 2.5
21
1.62
Shots on Goal
2.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 50 matches
Pafos Pafos 48 matches
AEK Larnaca Statistic Pafos
25 Wins 23
13 Draws 12
12 Losses 13
74 Goals For 78
43 Goals Against 50
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
24 BTTS Yes 22
35 Over 1.5 37
20 Over 2.5 21
9 Over 3.5 12
19 Clean Sheets 20
10 Failed To Score 9
1.62 Shots On Goal 2.41
4.53 Total Shots 6.61
1.83 Corners 2.83
21.6% Ball Possession 28.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Pafos. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AEK Larnaca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Pafos in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Pafos having the stronger overall control.

AEK Larnaca Analysis

Placed 2 with 65 points from 34 outings, AEK Larnaca continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 19 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 56:28 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Hrvoje Miličević (11 goals), Riad Bajić (10 goals), Enzo Cabrera (8 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Pafos Analysis

Placed 4 with 58 points from 34 outings, Pafos continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 62:36 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Correia (10 goals), Anderson Silva (9 goals), D. Luckassen (6 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AEK Larnaca won 5 times, Pafos won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from AEK Larnaca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: AEK Larnaca 4-2-3-1 / Pafos 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: AEK Larnaca wins 5, draws 7, Pafos wins 3

Lineups

AEK Larnaca
Formation
Pafos
A. Paraskevas
A. Paraskevas
Miramon
Miramon
H. Milicevic
H. Milicevic
C. Kyriakou
C. Kyriakou
P. Ioannou
P. Ioannou
Jimmy Suarez
Jimmy Suarez
Ledes Gustavo
Ledes Gustavo
P. Pons
P. Pons
G. Naoum
G. Naoum
R. Bajic
R. Bajic
A. Cardero
A. Cardero
J. Gorter
J. Gorter
D. Luckassen
D. Luckassen
David Luiz
David Luiz
N. Ioannou
N. Ioannou
J. Correia
J. Correia
I. Sunjic
I. Sunjic
Pepe
Pepe
M. Orsic
M. Orsic
V. Dragomir
V. Dragomir
D. Quina
D. Quina
Jaja
Jaja
AEK Larnaca 4-3-3
Starting XI
51
A. Paraskevas
G
21
Miramon
↓ 90+4'
M
15
H. Milicevic
⚽ 90'
D
25
C. Kyriakou
↓ 90+4' 🟨 55'
M
2
P. Ioannou
D
6
Jimmy Suarez
↓ 58'
M
7
Ledes Gustavo
M
17
P. Pons
M
29
G. Naoum
↓ 58'
M
11
R. Bajic
⚽ 22'
F
86
A. Cardero
↓ 81'
M
Substitutes
1
Z. Alomerovic
G
12
K. Komar
G
36
C. Loukaidis
↑ 81'
F
14
A. Garcia
↑ 90+4'
D
27
V. Roberge
↑ 90+4'
D
22
G. Ekpolo
↑ 58'
D
35
C. Thoma
M
37
D. Gerasimou
F
41
Mathias Gonzalez
↑ 58'
32
R. Mudrazija
M
40
K. Strouthou
D
Pafos 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
J. Gorter
G
23
D. Luckassen
🟨 74'
D
4
David Luiz
🟨 34'
D
14
N. Ioannou
D
77
J. Correia
↓ 73' 🟨 45+2'
M
26
I. Sunjic
↓ 73'
M
88
Pepe
⚽ 31' 🟨 90+1'
M
17
M. Orsic
↓ 84'
M
30
V. Dragomir
↓ 84'
M
8
D. Quina
↓ 64'
M
11
Jaja
M
Substitutes
99
A. Papadoudis
G
42
G. Michael
19
A. Guessand
D
12
K. Sema
↑ 84'
M
21
O. Mimovic
↑ 73'
D
80
Dani Silva
↑ 73' 🟨 90+6'
M
20
W. Odefalk
⚽ 88' ↑ 84'
M
86
A. Christoforou
M
50
A. Brito
M
9
M. Bassouamina
F
33
Anderson Silva
↑ 64'
F
18
Lele
F
93
N. Michail
G
Last matches: AEK Larnaca
22.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
4
3
W
10.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
1
1
D
06.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
0
W
03.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
0
1
L
25.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
2
0
W
18.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
1
D
14.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
05.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
22.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
1
2
L
16.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Ethnikos Achna
2
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
06.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Akritas
3
0
W
01.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Olympiakos
1
1
D
22.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Aradippou
1
2
L
14.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
0
1
L
08.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
2
1
W
31.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Enosis
5
0
W
25.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
1
W
18.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Krasava Ypsonas
2
1
W
Last matches: Pafos
22.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
10.05.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
0
W
06.05.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
03.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
2
L
26.04.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
3
3
D
18.04.26
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
14.04.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
22.03.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
14.03.26
1.
Pafos
Akritas
4
0
W
07.03.26
1.
Pafos
Krasava Ypsonas
7
0
W
01.03.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
2
D
21.02.26
1.
Pafos
Anorthosis
0
0
D
15.02.26
1.
Pafos
AEL
1
0
W
08.02.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
2
4
L
04.02.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
31.01.26
1.
Pafos
Ethnikos Achna
1
2
L
28.01.26
UEF
Pafos
Slavia Praha
4
1
W
25.01.26
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
2
L
21.01.26
UEF
Pafos
Chelsea
0
1
L
H2H: AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
16.05.26
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
18.04.26
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
25.01.26
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
2
W
30.10.25
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
05.10.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
4
L
24.05.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
0
0
D
18.05.25
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
2
0
L
13.04.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
22.12.24
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
1
W
01.09.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
0
2
L
06.04.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
3
0
W
25.02.24
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
1
W
22.01.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
0
W
07.10.23
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
0
D
21.05.23
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
1
D
Last matches: AEK Larnaca
06.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
0
W
25.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
2
0
W
14.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
22.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
1
2
L
06.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Akritas
3
0
W
01.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Olympiakos
1
1
D
14.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
0
1
L
31.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Enosis
5
0
W
18.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Krasava Ypsonas
2
1
W
04.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Anorthosis
4
0
W
18.12.25
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Shkendija
1
0
W
15.12.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
1
1
D
06.12.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Ethnikos Achna
2
1
W
09.11.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Aradippou
1
0
W
06.11.25
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Aberdeen
0
0
D
27.10.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
1
1
D
05.10.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
4
L
02.10.25
UEF
AEK Larnaca
AZ Alkmaar
4
0
W
22.09.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
3
2
W
H2H at home: AEK Larnaca
16.05.26
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
05.10.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
4
L
24.05.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
0
0
D
13.04.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
01.09.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
0
2
L
06.04.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
3
0
W
22.01.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
0
W
21.05.23
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
1
D
Last matches: Pafos
03.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
2
L
26.04.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
3
3
D
14.04.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
14.03.26
1.
Pafos
Akritas
4
0
W
01.03.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
2
D
15.02.26
1.
Pafos
AEL
1
0
W
31.01.26
1.
Pafos
Ethnikos Achna
1
2
L
21.01.26
UEF
Pafos
Chelsea
0
1
L
17.01.26
1.
Pafos
Olympiakos
0
2
L
04.01.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
2
L
14.12.25
1.
Pafos
Enosis
2
0
W
10.12.25
UEF
Pafos
Juventus
0
2
L
30.11.25
1.
Pafos
Krasava Ypsonas
3
2
W
09.11.25
1.
Pafos
Anorthosis
1
1
D
27.10.25
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
1
2
L
21.10.25
UEF
Pafos
Kairat Almaty
0
0
D
05.10.25
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
4
2
W
21.09.25
1.
Pafos
Omonia Aradippou
2
0
W
17.09.25
UEF
Pafos
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
0
D
H2H away: Pafos
16.05.26
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
05.10.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
4
W
24.05.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
0
0
D
13.04.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
01.09.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
0
2
W
06.04.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
3
0
L
22.01.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
0
L
21.05.23
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
1
D

Standings

1-division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 19 4 3 63:17 46 61
W W D L W
2 26 16 5 5 49:22 27 53
W W D L L
3 26 16 5 5 36:22 14 53
D W D W W
4
Pafos Away
26 16 3 7 53:24 29 51
W W D D W
5 26 13 6 7 45:27 18 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 7 7 48:26 22 43
L W D D D
7 26 10 4 12 23:31 -8 34
W L W W D
8 26 10 3 13 31:38 -7 33
L L L W L
9 26 7 11 8 23:33 -10 32
D W W D D
10 26 8 4 14 26:36 -10 28
W L W D D
11 26 6 10 10 22:37 -15 28
L W D L D
12 26 7 5 14 23:48 -25 26
L L L W D
13 26 7 2 17 25:44 -19 23
L L L L W
14 26 0 1 25 5:67 -62 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Cyprus League (Relegation Group)