16.05.2026 14:15
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Referee: A. de Ena Wolf
AD Ceuta FC
Match Timeline
Malaga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
J. Munoz · Assist: Chupe
Malaga
VAR
5'
Joaquín Muñoz
Malaga
⚽
13'
Chupe · Assist: R. Rodriguez
Malaga
🟨
34'
Youness Lachhab
AD Ceuta FC
VAR
37'
Marcos Fernández
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
42'
Chupe · Assist: R. Rodriguez
Malaga
🔄
46'
Youness ↔ I. Schor
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
46'
K. de la Fuente ↔ Y. Cantero
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
46'
Jamelli ↔ A. Bassinga
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
46'
D. Lorenzo ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
🟨
48'
‪Ignacio Schor
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
52'
E. Galilea
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
63'
A. Recio ↔ J. Montero
Malaga
🔄
63'
R. Rodriguez ↔ A. Ochoa
Malaga
🟨
64'
Aarón Ochoa
Malaga
🔄
72'
J. Munoz ↔ J. Lobete
Malaga
🟨
77'
Yann Bodiger
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
77'
Marcos Fernández
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
77'
K. Zalazar ↔ A. Betancourt
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
80'
D. Larrubia ↔ D. Brasanac
Malaga
⚽
82'
A. Ochoa
Malaga
🟨
84'
Darko Brašanac
Malaga
🔄
85'
M. Illescas ↔ Josema
AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AD Ceuta FC Win 25.9%
Draw 11.4%
Malaga Win 62.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
AD Ceuta FC1.24
Malaga1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
WWDLW
49 GF / 60 GA
Malaga Malaga
WLDWL
72 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
22
BTTS Yes
26
22
Over 2.5
26
3.6
Shots on Goal
5.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 41 matches
Malaga Malaga 41 matches
AD Ceuta FC Statistic Malaga
16 Wins 20
10 Draws 9
15 Losses 12
49 Goals For 72
60 Goals Against 53
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
22 BTTS Yes 26
30 Over 1.5 32
22 Over 2.5 26
10 Over 3.5 13
11 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 6
3.6 Shots On Goal 5.15
10.4 Total Shots 13.32
3.98 Corners 4.05
49.3% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Malaga's more proactive style and AD Ceuta FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Malaga. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AD Ceuta FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Malaga in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Malaga having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

AD Ceuta FC sit 11 with 55 points after 39 league matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 47:59 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Fernandez Sanchez (13 goals), Kuki Zalazar (6 goals), Jamelli (5 goals), with creative support from Kuki Zalazar (4 assists), K. Kone (4 assists), Jose Matos (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Malaga Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 66 points from 39 games, Malaga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 19 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats plus a goal balance of 68:50, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Chupe (21 goals), A. Nino (12 goals), David Larrubia (9 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (6 assists), Chupe (4 assists), David Larrubia (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, AD Ceuta FC won 2 times, Malaga won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:10 from AD Ceuta FC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3 / Malaga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: AD Ceuta FC wins 2, draws 1, Malaga wins 2

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation