SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Referee: A. de Ena Wolf
AD Ceuta FC
Match Timeline
Malaga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
J. Munoz · Assist: Chupe
Malaga
VAR
5'
Joaquín Muñoz
Malaga
13'
Chupe · Assist: R. Rodriguez
Malaga
🟨
34'
Youness Lachhab
AD Ceuta FC
VAR
37'
Marcos Fernández
AD Ceuta FC
42'
Chupe · Assist: R. Rodriguez
Malaga
🔄
46'
Youness ↔ I. Schor
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
46'
K. de la Fuente ↔ Y. Cantero
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
46'
Jamelli ↔ A. Bassinga
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
46'
D. Lorenzo ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
🟨
48'
‪Ignacio Schor
AD Ceuta FC
52'
E. Galilea
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
63'
A. Recio ↔ J. Montero
Malaga
🔄
63'
R. Rodriguez ↔ A. Ochoa
Malaga
🟨
64'
Aarón Ochoa
Malaga
🔄
72'
J. Munoz ↔ J. Lobete
Malaga
🟨
77'
Yann Bodiger
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
77'
Marcos Fernández
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
77'
K. Zalazar ↔ A. Betancourt
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
80'
D. Larrubia ↔ D. Brasanac
Malaga
82'
A. Ochoa
Malaga
🟨
84'
Darko Brašanac
Malaga
🔄
85'
M. Illescas ↔ Josema
AD Ceuta FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AD Ceuta FC Win 25.9%
Draw 11.4%
Malaga Win 62.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
AD Ceuta FC1.24
Malaga1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
WWDLW
49 GF / 60 GA
Malaga Malaga
WLDWL
72 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
22
BTTS Yes
26
22
Over 2.5
26
3.6
Shots on Goal
5.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 41 matches
Malaga Malaga 41 matches
AD Ceuta FC Statistic Malaga
16 Wins 20
10 Draws 9
15 Losses 12
49 Goals For 72
60 Goals Against 53
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
22 BTTS Yes 26
30 Over 1.5 32
22 Over 2.5 26
10 Over 3.5 13
11 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 6
3.6 Shots On Goal 5.15
10.4 Total Shots 13.32
3.98 Corners 4.05
49.3% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Malaga's more proactive style and AD Ceuta FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Malaga. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AD Ceuta FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Malaga in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Malaga having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

AD Ceuta FC sit 11 with 55 points after 39 league matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 47:59 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Fernandez Sanchez (13 goals), Kuki Zalazar (6 goals), Jamelli (5 goals), with creative support from Kuki Zalazar (4 assists), K. Kone (4 assists), Jose Matos (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Malaga Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 66 points from 39 games, Malaga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 19 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats plus a goal balance of 68:50, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Chupe (21 goals), A. Nino (12 goals), David Larrubia (9 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (6 assists), Chupe (4 assists), David Larrubia (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, AD Ceuta FC won 1 times, Malaga won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:9 from AD Ceuta FC's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3 / Malaga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: AD Ceuta FC wins 1, draws 1, Malaga wins 2
Stats
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
Malaga Malaga
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 1
17 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 2
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Goal 8
5 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 7
7 Shots outsidebox 4
4 Goalkeeper Saves 5
424 Total passes 476
369 Passes accurate 402
1.24 expected_goals 1.16
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

AD Ceuta FC
Formation
Malaga
G. Vallejo
G. Vallejo
Anuar
Anuar
C. Hernandez
C. Hernandez
Y. Bodiger
Y. Bodiger
D. Gonzalez
D. Gonzalez
Youness
Youness
M. Illescas
M. Illescas
Jamelli
Jamelli
K. Zalazar
K. Zalazar
K. de la Fuente
K. de la Fuente
M. Fernandez Sanchez
M. Fernandez Sanchez
A. Herrero
A. Herrero
C. Puga
C. Puga
A. Recio
A. Recio
E. Galilea
E. Galilea
Rafita
Rafita
R. Rodriguez
🎯
R. Rodriguez
I. Merino
I. Merino
D. Lorenzo
D. Lorenzo
D. Larrubia
D. Larrubia
Chupe
⚽ 2 🎯
Chupe
J. Munoz
J. Munoz
AD Ceuta FC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
G. Vallejo
G
23
Anuar
D
6
C. Hernandez
D
14
Y. Bodiger
🟨 77'
D
15
D. Gonzalez
D
5
Youness
↓ 46' 🟨 34'
M
12
M. Illescas
↓ 85'
M
19
Jamelli
↓ 46'
M
8
K. Zalazar
↓ 77'
M
18
K. de la Fuente
↓ 46'
M
9
M. Fernandez Sanchez
🟨 77'
F
Substitutes
1
P. Lopez
G
17
G. Almenara
D
2
M. Sanchez
D
4
A. Caparros
D
30
Josema
↑ 85'
11
I. Schor
↑ 46' 🟨 48'
F
24
Y. Cantero
↑ 46'
D
34
A. Betancourt
↑ 77'
M
37
A. Rueda
F
26
A. Bassinga
↑ 46'
M
Malaga 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
A. Herrero
G
3
C. Puga
D
36
A. Recio
↓ 63'
D
4
E. Galilea
⚽ 52'
D
31
Rafita
D
37
R. Rodriguez
🎯 13' 🎯 42' ↓ 63'
M
23
I. Merino
M
22
D. Lorenzo
↓ 46'
M
10
D. Larrubia
↓ 80'
F
9
Chupe
⚽ 13' ⚽ 42' 🎯 4'
F
11
J. Munoz
⚽ 4' ↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
13
C. Lopez
G
5
D. Brasanac
↑ 80' 🟨 84'
M
14
V. Garcia
D
20
J. Montero
↑ 63'
D
17
E. Jauregi
F
24
J. Lobete
↑ 72'
F
26
P. Arriaza
21
A. Nino
F
6
R. Enriquez
↑ 46'
M
7
H. Abaida
F
2
J. Gabilondo
D
35
A. Ochoa
⚽ 82' ↑ 63' 🟨 64'
M
Last matches: AD Ceuta FC
30.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
1
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
FC Andorra
2
0
W
09.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
1
1
D
03.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
26.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Racing Santander
0
0
D
18.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Zaragoza
2
2
D
10.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Real Sociedad II
0
0
D
05.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Eibar
0
3
L
01.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Burgos
1
1
D
28.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cadiz
2
1
W
21.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Leganes
2
5
L
14.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Deportivo La Coruna
1
2
L
08.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Las Palmas
0
4
L
01.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Mirandes
1
0
W
25.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba
3
2
W
20.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Granada CF
2
1
W
15.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Huesca
0
2
L
01.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Almeria
2
4
L
26.01.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cultural Leonesa
3
1
W
17.01.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Valladolid
0
3
L
Last matches: Malaga
14.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
10.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
1
D
07.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
2
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Racing Santander
1
1
D
09.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
02.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Eibar
4
2
W
25.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
2
3
L
19.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
2
0
W
04.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
01.04.26
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
3
3
D
28.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
0
D
21.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
3
0
W
15.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Huesca
5
3
W
07.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
3
3
D
28.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
1
0
W
22.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
1
0
W
16.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
1
2
L
08.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
2
1
W
H2H: AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga
16.05.26
H2H
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
1
4
L
11.01.26
H2H
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
2
1
L
07.04.24
H2H
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
1
1
D
14.01.24
H2H
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
3
2
W
Last matches: AD Ceuta FC
30.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
1
0
W
09.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
1
1
D
26.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Racing Santander
0
0
D
10.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Real Sociedad II
0
0
D
28.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cadiz
2
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Deportivo La Coruna
1
2
L
25.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba
3
2
W
20.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Granada CF
2
1
W
26.01.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cultural Leonesa
3
1
W
17.01.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Valladolid
0
3
L
04.01.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
FC Andorra
2
1
W
14.12.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Las Palmas
1
1
D
29.11.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Burgos
1
0
W
26.11.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Almeria
3
2
W
16.11.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Leganes
1
2
L
18.10.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Mirandes
2
0
W
03.10.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Eibar
1
0
W
21.09.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Zaragoza
1
0
W
07.09.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Huesca
2
1
W
23.08.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Sporting Gijon
0
1
L
H2H at home: AD Ceuta FC
16.05.26
H2H
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
1
4
L
14.01.24
H2H
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
3
2
W
Last matches: Malaga
07.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
2
0
W
02.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Eibar
4
2
W
19.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
3
L
04.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
01.04.26
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
3
3
D
21.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
3
0
W
28.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
1
0
W
16.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
1
2
L
02.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Mirandes
1
2
L
18.01.26
Seg
Malaga
Cordoba
1
0
W
04.01.26
Seg
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
3
1
W
14.12.25
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
3
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Malaga
CF Talavera
1
2
L
29.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
1
1
D
17.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
0
1
L
02.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
1
2
L
30.10.25
Cop
Malaga
Estepona
3
1
W
19.10.25
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
2
L
05.10.25
Seg
Malaga
Racing Santander
0
3
L
H2H away: Malaga
16.05.26
H2H
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
1
4
W
14.01.24
H2H
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
3
2
L

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
D W D W L
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
D D W W D
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation