SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Pittodrie Stadium
Referee: D. Dickinson
Aberdeen
Match Timeline
ST Mirren
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Marcus Fraser
ST Mirren
42'
R. King · Assist: J. Devaney
ST Mirren
🔄
46'
A. Afeez ↔ L. Cameron
Aberdeen
🔄
46'
L. Morrison ↔ J. Milne
Aberdeen
🔄
68'
N. Devlin ↔ D. Lobban
Aberdeen
🔄
68'
K. Nisbet ↔ T. Keskinen
Aberdeen
🟨
75'
Jacob Devaney
ST Mirren
🟨
79'
Dennis Geiger
Aberdeen
🔄
80'
D. Geiger ↔ G. Shinnie
Aberdeen
80'
K. Phillips · Assist: M. Mandron
ST Mirren
🔄
90+2'
K. Phillips ↔ L. Douglas
ST Mirren

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 62.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
62.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
62.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aberdeen Win 68.3%
Draw 6%
ST Mirren Win 25.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aberdeen1.19
ST Mirren1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aberdeen Aberdeen
WWDLW
43 GF / 69 GA
ST Mirren ST Mirren
WLDWL
27 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
0.98
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
16
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
12
3.41
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aberdeen Aberdeen 44 matches
ST Mirren ST Mirren 36 matches
Aberdeen Statistic ST Mirren
11 Wins 7
10 Draws 9
23 Losses 20
43 Goals For 27
69 Goals Against 54
0.98 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
16 BTTS Yes 13
32 Over 1.5 24
17 Over 2.5 12
11 Over 3.5 6
11 Clean Sheets 8
20 Failed To Score 18
3.41 Shots On Goal 3.47
11.25 Total Shots 11.81
4.52 Corners 5.53
46% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward ST Mirren. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. ST Mirren arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Aberdeen Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 40 points from 36 games, Aberdeen bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats, together with goals at 38:50, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Kevin Nisbet (9 goals), J. Karlsson (5 goals), Marko Lazetić (4 goals), with creative support from Stuart Armstrong (5 assists), Topi Keskinen (3 assists), T. Olusanya (2 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

ST Mirren Analysis

ST Mirren approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 30 points from 36 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 9 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 27:54 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Freckleton (5 goals), Alexander Gogić (4 goals), M. Mandron (4 goals), with creative support from D. John (5 assists), M. Mandron (4 assists), S. Tanser (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aberdeen won 4 times, ST Mirren won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:28 from Aberdeen's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
Predicted formations: Aberdeen 3-4-1-2 / ST Mirren 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Aberdeen wins 4, draws 2, ST Mirren wins 9
Stats
Aberdeen Aberdeen
ST Mirren ST Mirren
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
6 Corner Kicks 1
14 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Goal 5
4 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 6
1 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 1
549 Total passes 404
429 Passes accurate 289
0.52 expected_goals 1.46
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Aberdeen
Formation
ST Mirren
P. Bratveit
P. Bratveit
L. Morrison
L. Morrison
M. Knoester
M. Knoester
G. Molloy
G. Molloy
N. Devlin
N. Devlin
A. Afeez
A. Afeez
A. Palaversa
A. Palaversa
M. Frame
M. Frame
D. Geiger
D. Geiger
T. Olusanya
T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
K. Nisbet
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair
L. Donnelly
L. Donnelly
A. Gogic
A. Gogic
M. Fraser
M. Fraser
M. O'Hara
M. O'Hara
R. King
R. King
A. Campbell
A. Campbell
J. Devaney
🎯
J. Devaney
M. Freckleton
M. Freckleton
K. Phillips
K. Phillips
M. Mandron
🎯
M. Mandron
Aberdeen 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
99
P. Bratveit
G
23
L. Morrison
↓ 46'
D
5
M. Knoester
D
21
G. Molloy
D
2
N. Devlin
↓ 68'
M
32
A. Afeez
↓ 46'
M
18
A. Palaversa
M
3
M. Frame
M
8
D. Geiger
↓ 80' 🟨 79'
F
20
T. Olusanya
F
15
K. Nisbet
↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
13
N. Suman
G
25
L. Cameron
↑ 46'
M
38
D. Lobban
↑ 68'
M
14
K. Bilalovic
M
4
G. Shinnie
↑ 80'
M
42
E. Bwomono
D
81
T. Keskinen
↑ 68'
F
22
J. Milne
↑ 46'
D
29
K. Kjartansson
M
ST Mirren 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
27
R. Sinclair
G
4
L. Donnelly
D
13
A. Gogic
D
22
M. Fraser
🟨 16'
D
6
M. O'Hara
5
R. King
⚽ 42'
M
16
A. Campbell
M
8
J. Devaney
🎯 42' 🟨 75'
M
21
M. Freckleton
M
88
K. Phillips
⚽ 80' ↓ 90+2'
F
9
M. Mandron
🎯 80'
F
Substitutes
35
G. Tamosevicius
G
2
J. Richardson
D
20
J. Young
F
7
R. Idowu
M
17
J. Calvin
F
32
L. Douglas
↑ 90+2'
F
3
S. Tanser
D
38
T. Falconer
41
R. Duff
F
Last matches: Aberdeen
11.07.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Linfield
2
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Ross County
3
6
L
04.07.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Twente
0
1
L
27.06.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Cove Rangers
1
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
01.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
1
4
L
14.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Falkirk
1
1
D
04.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Celtic
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
24.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
3
L
15.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Motherwell
0
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
6
2
W
11.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
0
2
L
Last matches: ST Mirren
27.06.26
Fri
ST Mirren
Arbroath
4
2
W
25.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
0
W
21.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
02.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
0
2
L
11.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Celtic
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Falkirk
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Rangers
0
1
L
03.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Motherwell
0
5
L
14.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Hibernian
0
2
L
11.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
3
4
L
03.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
0
D
20.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
1
D
14.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
0
2
L
H2H: Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
12.05.26
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
04.04.26
H2H
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
0
L
03.12.25
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
3
D
18.10.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
0
1
W
03.05.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
1
0
L
25.01.25
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
3
L
23.11.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
1
L
11.08.24
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
1
W
02.03.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
1
L
30.12.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
3
L
27.08.23
H2H
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
2
D
24.05.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
0
W
01.02.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
1
3
L
24.12.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
3
1
L
06.08.22
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
4
1
W
Last matches: Aberdeen
07.07.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Ross County
3
6
L
09.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Falkirk
1
1
D
04.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Celtic
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
6
2
W
11.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
0
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
14.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
1
W
11.12.25
UEF
Aberdeen
Strasbourg
0
1
L
03.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
3
D
27.11.25
UEF
Aberdeen
FC Noah
1
1
D
23.11.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Motherwell
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
1
2
L
05.10.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
4
0
W
02.10.25
UEF
Aberdeen
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
3
L
13.09.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
0
0
D
H2H at home: Aberdeen
12.05.26
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
03.12.25
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
3
D
25.01.25
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
3
L
11.08.24
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
1
W
30.12.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
3
L
24.05.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
0
W
01.02.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
1
3
L
06.08.22
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
4
1
W
Last matches: ST Mirren
27.06.26
Fri
ST Mirren
Arbroath
4
2
W
21.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
1
D
02.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Celtic
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Falkirk
2
1
W
03.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Hibernian
0
2
L
11.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
3
4
L
20.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
1
D
14.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
0
2
L
03.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Motherwell
0
2
L
30.12.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Rangers
1
2
L
03.12.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
3
3
D
29.11.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
1
3
L
25.10.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
3
L
04.10.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
2
L
13.09.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Falkirk
2
1
W
31.08.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Hibernian
1
1
D
03.08.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Celtic
0
1
L
H2H away: ST Mirren
12.05.26
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
W
03.12.25
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
3
D
25.01.25
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
3
W
11.08.24
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
1
L
30.12.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
3
W
24.05.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
0
L
01.02.23
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
1
3
W
06.08.22
H2H
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
4
1
L

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round