NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Color Line Stadion
Referee: T. Hansen
Aalesund
Match Timeline
Molde
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch · Assist: Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
Aalesund
18'
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter · Assist: Eirik Hestad
Molde
31'
Eirik Hestad
Molde
🟨
45'
Mats Møller Dæhli
Molde
🔄
46'
Martin Linnes ↔ Samukelo Kabini
Molde
🔄
58'
Simen Haram ↔ Ulrik Syversen
Aalesund
🔄
60'
Birk Risa ↔ Sivert Sira Hansen
Molde
🟨
63'
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Molde
🔄
68'
Trent Kone Doherty ↔ Jalal Abdullai
Molde
🔄
68'
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter ↔ Caleb Zady Sery
Molde
🔄
75'
Isak Helstad Amundsen ↔ Eirik Haugan
Molde
🟨
80'
Jalal Abdullai
Molde
🔄
80'
Henrik Melland ↔ Elias Heggland Myrlid
Aalesund
🔄
86'
Uba Charles ↔ Jakob Nyland Örsahl
Aalesund
🔄
86'
Kristoffer Nessø ↔ Marius Andresen
Aalesund
🔄
86'
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen ↔ Hakon Butli Hammer
Aalesund
90+6'
Mathias Christensen · Assist: Ulrik Syversen
Aalesund
🟨
90+1'
Aleksander Kjelsen
Aalesund

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.1%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aalesund Win 40.3%
Draw 18.9%
Molde Win 40.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aalesund1.53
Molde1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aalesund Aalesund
WWDLW
32 GF / 33 GA
Molde Molde
WLDWL
34 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
13
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
11
4.73
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aalesund Aalesund 19 matches
Molde Molde 20 matches
Aalesund Statistic Molde
6 Wins 9
5 Draws 4
8 Losses 7
32 Goals For 34
33 Goals Against 26
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
13 BTTS Yes 13
17 Over 1.5 15
12 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 4
4.73 Shots On Goal 4.45
14.64 Total Shots 12.45
4.55 Corners 4.73
42.6% Ball Possession 59.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Molde's more proactive style and Aalesund's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Molde. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aalesund expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Molde in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Molde having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Molde carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 19 points while Aalesund sit 13 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund sit 13 with 11 points after 11 league matches. The record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 15:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Lonebu (5 goals), H. Melland (3 goals), M. Christensen (2 goals), with creative support from Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (2 assists), J. Orsahl (2 assists), H. Melland (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Molde Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 19 points from 11 games, Molde bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:13, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by E. Breivik (6 goals), Eirik Hestad (4 goals), Fredrik Gulbrandsen (4 goals), with creative support from Sondre Milian Granaas (2 assists), S. Hansen (2 assists), E. Breivik (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Aalesund won 2 times, Molde won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:32 from Aalesund's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.83 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.1%)
Predicted formations: Aalesund 5-3-2 / Molde 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Aalesund 4, Molde 4
H2H summary: Aalesund wins 2, draws 1, Molde wins 9

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 2 2 47:14 33 44
W W W W W
2 18 14 1 3 42:18 24 43
W L W W D
3 18 10 5 3 34:20 14 35
D L W W W
4
Molde Away
18 9 3 6 36:29 7 30
W W L D W
5 18 8 2 8 36:27 9 26
D W W L W
6 18 8 2 8 24:25 -1 26
L D L L L
7 18 8 2 8 22:28 -6 26
W W W W L
8 18 7 3 8 27:26 1 24
L W W L W
9 18 6 5 7 20:23 -3 23
D L L D W
10 18 6 5 7 26:32 -6 23
D L D W L
11 18 6 3 9 31:38 -7 21
L D L L W
12 18 5 4 9 15:23 -8 19
D W L L L
13 18 5 4 9 20:31 -11 19
L D W W L
14 18 4 4 10 17:29 -12 16
D L W L L
15 18 2 9 7 28:43 -15 15
L D D L D
16 18 3 4 11 20:39 -19 13
W L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen