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BRAZIL › SERIE A
08.10.2026 22:30
Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Referee: Anderson Daronco
Santos
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Gonzalo Escobar
Santos
🟨
34'
Gustavo Henrique
Santos
🟨
36'
Álvaro Barreal
Santos
🟨
41'
Pedro
Flamengo
⚽
43'
Danilo Luiz da Silva · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
⚽
45+4'
Lucas Paquetá · Assist: Jorge Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
45'
Álvaro Barreal ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
45'
Philippe Coutinho ↔ Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior
Santos
🟨
53'
Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior
Santos
🟨
55'
Lucas Paquetá
Flamengo
🟨
57'
Christian Oliva
Santos
🟨
61'
Rodinei
Santos
🔄
66'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ Benjamín Rollheiser
Santos
🔄
69'
Jorge Carrascal ↔ Gonzalo Plata
Flamengo
🔄
69'
Gonzalo Escobar ↔ Luan Peres
Santos
🔄
69'
Lucas Paquetá ↔ Saúl Ñíguez
Flamengo
VAR
72'
Rony
Santos
🟥
79'
Jorginho
Flamengo
🔄
81'
Samuel Lino ↔ Luiz Araújo
Flamengo
🔄
81'
Pedro ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
⚽
82'
Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior
Santos
🟨
85'
Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
⚽
88'
Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior
Santos
🟨
90+1'
Emerson Royal
Flamengo

Santos vs Flamengo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.79
BTTS
Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72.7%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.2%
1.79 ▥
BTTS Yes
74.1%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72.7%
1.76 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Santos Win 31.6%
Draw 10.2%
Flamengo Win 58.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos1.27
Flamengo1.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Santos
WWDLW
46 GF / 41 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
82 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
2
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
20
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
23
4.07
Shots on Goal
5.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Santos 29 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 41 matches
Santos Statistic Flamengo
12 Wins 27
8 Draws 10
9 Losses 4
46 Goals For 82
41 Goals Against 33
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
20 BTTS Yes 22
26 Over 1.5 38
19 Over 2.5 23
9 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 17
3 Failed To Score 2
4.07 Shots On Goal 5.73
13.32 Total Shots 15.76
5.36 Corners 5.05
49.9% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Flamengo. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 60 points while Santos sit 8 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 8 with 41 points after 28 league matches. The record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 43:41 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Gabriel Barbosa (13 goals), Neymar (6 goals), B. Rollheiser (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (3 assists), Neymar (2 assists), B. Rollheiser (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. Although they are without Gabriel Brazao, Vinicius Lira, Neymar, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Flamengo Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 60 points from 28 games, Flamengo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 18 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, with a 55:23 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Pedro (15 goals), Samuel Lino (9 goals), J. Carrascal (5 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (7 assists), J. Carrascal (7 assists), Pedro (5 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Ayrton Lucas, Evertton Araujo, G. de Arrascaeta unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 4 times, Flamengo won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:27 from Santos's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.8%)
Predicted formations: Santos 4-2-3-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Santos 4, Flamengo 5
H2H summary: Santos wins 4, draws 1, Flamengo wins 10

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
4 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
5 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
6 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 28 9 7 12 36:42 -6 34
W W W L W
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B