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UKRAINE › PREMIER LEAGUE
17.10.2026 10:00
Slavutych-Arena
Referee: Oleksandr Shandor, Ukraine
Zorya Luhansk
Match Timeline
Chornomorets
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
27'
M. Boyko
Zorya Luhansk
⚽
45'
C. Mba · Assist: V. Faraseyenko
Chornomorets
🔄
46'
V. Faraseyenko ↔ D. Alefirenko
Chornomorets
🟨
48'
Igor Perduta
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
57'
K. Dryshlyuk ↔ D. Popara
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
57'
S. Bah ↔ V. Yurchenko
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
60'
Dejan Popara
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
71'
D. Jelavic ↔ A. Glushchenko
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
73'
K. Popov ↔ A. Khoma
Chornomorets
🔄
77'
A. Avagimyan ↔ D. Klyots
Chornomorets
🔄
87'
I. Nesterenko ↔ I. Gorbach
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
88'
Muhammed Jobe
Chornomorets
🔄
88'
M. Boyko ↔ J. Basic
Zorya Luhansk
⚽
89'
B. Kushnirenko · Assist: V. Yurchenko
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
90+3'
Vasyl Kravets
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
90+3'
Moses Jarju
Chornomorets
🔄
90+3'
M. Jobe ↔ V. Kurko
Chornomorets

Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Zorya Luhansk Win 67.5%
Draw 16.2%
Chornomorets Win 16.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zorya Luhansk1.44
Chornomorets1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
W W L D D
7 GF / 6 GA
Chornomorets Chornomorets
L D L D W
3 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
18
BTTS Yes
6
17
Over 2.5
5
4.63
Shots on Goal
1.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 25 matches
Chornomorets Chornomorets 12 matches
Zorya Luhansk Statistic Chornomorets
7 Wins 4
8 Draws 2
10 Losses 6
39 Goals For 10
39 Goals Against 15
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
18 BTTS Yes 6
23 Over 1.5 9
17 Over 2.5 5
8 Over 3.5 0
5 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 4
4.63 Shots On Goal 1.86
8.88 Total Shots 4.86
4.63 Corners 2.71
52% Ball Possession 42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chornomorets. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zorya Luhansk expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Chornomorets in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chornomorets having the stronger overall control.

Zorya Luhansk Analysis

So far, Zorya Luhansk have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 8 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 7:11 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chornomorets Analysis

Chornomorets are currently 12 in the standings with 5 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 3:7 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Zorya Luhansk won 9 times, Chornomorets won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:10 from Zorya Luhansk's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (83.8%)
Predicted formations: Zorya Luhansk 4-4-2 / Chornomorets 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Zorya Luhansk wins 9, draws 3, Chornomorets wins 2

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 23:8 15 25
W W D W W
2 10 8 1 1 20:5 15 25
D W W W W
3 9 7 0 2 18:7 11 21
W W W W W
4 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
W L W W W
5 9 4 3 2 17:8 9 15
D L D W L
6 10 4 3 3 12:13 -1 15
D W W L D
7 10 4 3 3 10:9 1 15
D W W L W
8 9 3 2 4 12:13 -1 11
W L W W L
9 10 2 3 5 10:14 -4 9
L D L L L
10 10 2 3 5 6:13 -7 9
L L L W D
11 9 1 5 3 6:8 -2 8
D L L W L
12 9 1 5 3 7:12 -5 8
L D L D D
13 9 1 4 4 4:15 -11 7
L W D L
14 8 1 2 5 5:11 -6 5
L L D L D
15 10 1 2 7 11:24 -13 5
L W L L L
16 7 1 2 4 7:13 -6 5
L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Persha Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga