23.08.2026 20:00
York Lions Stadium
Referee: R. Villanueva
York United
Match Timeline
Supra du Quebec
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
J. Altobelli · Assist: S. Yeates
York United
🟨
15'
Ariel Almagro
York United
🟨
34'
Ibrahim Condé
Supra du Quebec
🟨
42'
David Choiniere
Supra du Quebec
VAR
52'
Julian Altobelli
York United
🔄
57'
J. Altobelli ↔ B. Badibanga
York United
61'
L. A. Kwemi · Assist: D. Choiniere
Supra du Quebec
🟨
64'
Tomasz Skublak
York United
🟨
68'
Abzi Diyaeddine
Supra du Quebec
🔄
68'
O. Bassett ↔ K. Kibato
York United
🟨
69'
Carlos Guzmán
York United
🔄
78'
D. Choiniere ↔ R. Bey
Supra du Quebec
🔄
83'
A. Sissoko ↔ C. Auguste
Supra du Quebec
🟨
86'
Oswaldo León
York United
VAR
87'
Oswaldo León
York United
🟨
89'
Kembo Kibato
York United
VAR
90+6'
Steffen Yeates
York United
🟨
90+8'
Charles Auguste
Supra du Quebec
🟨
90+3'
Abzi Diyaeddine
Supra du Quebec
🟥
90+3'
Abzi Diyaeddine
Supra du Quebec
🔄
90+7'
J. Cordova ↔ S. Gonzales
York United
🔄
90+4'
S. Rea ↔ Z. Fernandez
Supra du Quebec

York United vs Supra du Quebec Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.1%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
York United Win 33.1%
Draw 17.9%
Supra du Quebec Win 49.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
York United1.54
Supra du Quebec1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
York United York United
WWDLW
21 GF / 34 GA
Supra du Quebec Supra du Quebec
WLDWL
25 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.47
2.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
11
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
11
1.67
Shots on Goal
1.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

York United York United 16 matches
Supra du Quebec Supra du Quebec 17 matches
York United Statistic Supra du Quebec
5 Wins 5
5 Draws 3
6 Losses 9
21 Goals For 25
34 Goals Against 32
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
2.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
11 BTTS Yes 14
13 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 3
1.67 Shots On Goal 1.65
3.73 Total Shots 6
0.87 Corners 2.06
14.7% Ball Possession 25.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Supra du Quebec. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. York United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Supra du Quebec having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

York United Analysis

York United sit 7 with 14 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 16:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Supra du Quebec Analysis

Supra du Quebec come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 18 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 22:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, York United won 0 times, Supra du Quebec won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from York United's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.1%)
Predicted formations: York United 4-2-3-1 / Supra du Quebec 4-3-3
H2H summary: York United wins 0, draws 1, Supra du Quebec wins 1

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 5 2 42:13 29 50
D W W W W
2 22 14 4 4 34:16 18 46
D W D L W
3 23 10 4 9 34:39 -5 34
L L D W L
4 23 9 4 10 31:29 2 31
D L W L L
5 23 7 5 11 35:38 -3 26
W W L L W
6 22 7 4 11 31:38 -7 25
W L L W D
7 21 5 8 8 30:46 -16 23
L W D D L
8 22 1 8 13 26:44 -18 11
D L D D W