CANADA CANADIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
York Lions Stadium
York United
Match Timeline
HFX Wanderers FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
Ariel Almagro · Assist: Tomasz Skublak
York United
10'
Ryan Telfer
York United
25'
Steffen Yeates · Assist: Ariel Almagro
York United
45+4'
Miguel Arilla
HFX Wanderers FC
VAR
45+3'
Finn Linder
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
46'
Tomasz Skublak ↔ Luca Accettola
York United
🔄
46'
Adonijah Reid ↔ Isaiah Johnston
HFX Wanderers FC
47'
Julian Altobelli · Assist: Luca Accettola
York United
56'
Andre Rampersad · Assist: Ryan Telfer
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
57'
Kareem Sow ↔ Jason Bahamboula
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
58'
Tavio Ciccarelli ↔ Sven Zitman
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
58'
Andre Rampersad ↔ Thomas Meilleur Giguère
HFX Wanderers FC
🟨
60'
Oswaldo León
York United
🟨
63'
Lucas Olguin
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
63'
Juan Córdova ↔ Raúl López
York United
77'
Isaiah Johnston
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
78'
Lucas Olguin ↔ Ilan Ahmed
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
79'
Luke Singh ↔ Jesse Costa
York United
🔄
79'
Julian Altobelli ↔ Sebastián Gonzales Zela
York United
🔄
83'
Ariel Almagro ↔ Beni Badibanga
York United
🟨
87'
Steffen Yeates
York United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.2%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
York United Win 38.2%
Draw 28%
HFX Wanderers FC Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
York United1.25
HFX Wanderers FC1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
York United York United
WWDLW
17 GF / 31 GA
HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC
WLDWL
21 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.17
2.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
10
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
9
1.43
Shots on Goal
1.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

York United York United 15 matches
HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC 18 matches
York United Statistic HFX Wanderers FC
4 Wins 4
5 Draws 6
6 Losses 8
17 Goals For 21
31 Goals Against 26
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
2.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
10 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
1.43 Shots On Goal 1.82
2.93 Total Shots 4.88
0.79 Corners 2.41
12.1% Ball Possession 26%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward HFX Wanderers FC. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. York United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with York United expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and HFX Wanderers FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HFX Wanderers FC having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

York United Analysis

York United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 14 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats with a 16:31 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

HFX Wanderers FC Analysis

Placed 5 with 17 points from 17 outings, HFX Wanderers FC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 21:26 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, York United won 5 times, HFX Wanderers FC won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:26 from York United's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72%)
Predicted formations: York United 4-2-3-1 / HFX Wanderers FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: York United wins 5, draws 5, HFX Wanderers FC wins 5
Stats
York United York United
HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
7
2 Corner Kicks 6
8 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Goal 8
6 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 7
9 Shots insidebox 17
6 Shots outsidebox 4
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
526 Total passes 480
461 Passes accurate 417
1.47 expected_goals 4.17
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

York United
Formation
HFX Wanderers FC
Ivan Pavela
Ivan Pavela
Luke Singh
Luke Singh
Frank Sturing
Frank Sturing
Oswaldo León
Oswaldo León
Carlos Guzmán
Carlos Guzmán
Steffen Yeates
Steffen Yeates
Ollie Bassett
Ollie Bassett
Juan Córdova
Juan Córdova
Ariel Almagro
🎯
Ariel Almagro
Julian Altobelli
Julian Altobelli
Tomasz Skublak
🎯
Tomasz Skublak
Marco Carducci
Marco Carducci
Francesco Troisi
Francesco Troisi
Finn Linder
Finn Linder
Kareem Sow
Kareem Sow
Ryan Telfer
🎯
Ryan Telfer
Lorenzo Callegari
Lorenzo Callegari
Lucas Olguin
Lucas Olguin
Andre Rampersad
Andre Rampersad
Miguel  Arilla
Miguel Arilla
Tavio Ciccarelli
Tavio Ciccarelli
Adonijah Reid
Adonijah Reid
York United 3-4-3
Starting XI
12
Ivan Pavela
G
3
Luke Singh
↓ 79'
D
5
Frank Sturing
D
4
Oswaldo León
🟨 60'
D
8
Carlos Guzmán
M
7
Steffen Yeates
⚽ 25' 🟨 87'
M
10
Ollie Bassett
M
23
Juan Córdova
↓ 63'
M
11
Ariel Almagro
⚽ 3' 🎯 25' ↓ 83'
F
18
Julian Altobelli
⚽ 47' ↓ 79'
F
77
Tomasz Skublak
🎯 3' ↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
13
Luca Accettola
🎯 47' ↑ 46'
M
6
Raúl López
↑ 63'
D
28
Jesse Costa
↑ 79'
M
9
Sebastián Gonzales Zela
↑ 79'
F
39
Beni Badibanga
↑ 83'
F
17
Kai Campos
G
36
Ty Clarke
M
HFX Wanderers FC 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Marco Carducci
G
17
Francesco Troisi
D
2
Finn Linder
D
16
Kareem Sow
↓ 57'
D
7
Ryan Telfer
⚽ 10' 🎯 56'
D
6
Lorenzo Callegari
M
5
Lucas Olguin
↓ 78' 🟨 63'
M
18
Andre Rampersad
⚽ 56' ↓ 58'
M
23
Miguel Arilla
⚽ 45+4'
F
20
Tavio Ciccarelli
↓ 58'
F
11
Adonijah Reid
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
8
Isaiah Johnston
⚽ 77' ↑ 46'
M
14
Jason Bahamboula
↑ 57'
F
26
Thomas Meilleur Giguère
↑ 58'
D
22
Sven Zitman
↑ 58'
M
33
Ilan Ahmed
↑ 78'
D
12
Sinclair Astridge
G
21
Jefferson Alphonse
D
Last matches: York United
23.08.26
Can
York United
Supra du Quebec
1
1
D
08.08.26
Can
York United
Pacific FC
1
1
D
02.08.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
0
5
L
26.07.26
Can
York United
Forge
1
3
L
17.07.26
Can
York United
Atlético Ottawa
1
1
D
04.07.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
0
4
L
10.06.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
5
L
07.06.26
Can
York United
Forge
1
4
L
29.05.26
Can
York United
Supra du Quebec
1
3
L
23.05.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Can
York United
Pacific FC
1
0
W
01.05.26
Can
York United
Atlético Ottawa
4
1
W
25.04.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
11.04.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
27.02.26
Fri
York United
Las Vegas Lights
1
0
W
Last matches: HFX Wanderers FC
22.08.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
08.08.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Atlético Ottawa
1
2
L
02.08.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Forge
0
0
D
24.07.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Supra du Quebec
2
3
L
18.07.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Cavalry FC
1
1
D
05.07.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Pacific FC
2
1
W
01.07.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Atlético Ottawa
1
3
L
26.06.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Pacific FC
5
2
W
10.06.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Forge
0
1
L
06.06.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Cavalry FC
0
2
L
30.05.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
23.05.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
1
1
D
17.05.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Atlético Ottawa
0
1
L
02.05.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Forge
1
3
L
24.04.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Supra du Quebec
1
2
L
18.04.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Pacific FC
2
2
D
11.04.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
2
2
D
04.04.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
HFX Wanderers FC
Leiknir R.
0
0
D
H2H: York United vs HFX Wanderers FC
16.08.26
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
4
3
W
23.05.26
H2H
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
1
1
D
11.04.26
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
22.10.25
H2H
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
2
2
D
04.10.25
H2H
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
1
1
D
01.09.25
H2H
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
4
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
0
W
13.04.25
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
1
2
L
19.10.24
H2H
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
2
1
L
02.09.24
H2H
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
2
1
L
06.07.24
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
1
W
24.05.24
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
1
W
04.09.23
H2H
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
1
2
W
30.07.23
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
0
2
L
21.06.23
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
Last matches: York United
23.08.26
Can
York United
Supra du Quebec
1
1
D
26.07.26
Can
York United
Forge
1
3
L
10.06.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
5
L
07.06.26
Can
York United
Forge
1
4
L
01.05.26
Can
York United
Atlético Ottawa
4
1
W
19.04.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
11.04.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
27.02.26
Fri
York United
Las Vegas Lights
1
0
W
H2H at home: York United
16.08.26
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
4
3
W
11.04.26
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
31.05.25
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
0
W
13.04.25
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
1
2
L
06.07.24
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
1
W
24.05.24
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
1
W
30.07.23
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
0
2
L
21.06.23
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
Last matches: HFX Wanderers FC
08.08.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Atlético Ottawa
1
2
L
18.07.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Cavalry FC
1
1
D
05.07.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Pacific FC
2
1
W
10.06.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Forge
0
1
L
06.06.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Cavalry FC
0
2
L
17.05.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Atlético Ottawa
0
1
L
24.04.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Supra du Quebec
1
2
L
11.04.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
York United
2
2
D
04.04.26
Can
HFX Wanderers FC
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
H2H away: HFX Wanderers FC
16.08.26
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
4
3
L
11.04.26
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
31.05.25
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
0
L
13.04.25
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
1
2
W
06.07.24
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
1
L
24.05.24
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
1
L
30.07.23
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
0
2
W
21.06.23
H2H
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 2 3 29:13 16 41
W W L L D
2 18 12 4 2 36:11 25 40
W W D W W
3 19 9 3 7 32:33 -1 30
L W W W L
4 19 8 3 8 26:22 4 27
L L D W W
5 19 5 5 9 25:30 -5 20
W L L D L
6 18 5 4 9 26:33 -7 19
D L L D W
7 16 4 6 6 21:35 -14 18
D W D L L
8 17 0 5 12 18:36 -18 5
L D D L L