CANADA CANADIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
16.08.2026 20:00
York Lions Stadium
Referee: Niko Jecanski, Canada
York United
Match Timeline
HFX Wanderers FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
A. Almagro · Assist: T. Skublak
York United
10'
R. Telfer
York United
25'
S. Yeates · Assist: A. Almagro
York United
VAR
45+3'
Finn Linder
HFX Wanderers FC
45'
M. Arilla
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
46'
T. Skublak ↔ L. Accettola
York United
🔄
46'
A. Reid ↔ I. Johnston
HFX Wanderers FC
47'
J. Altobelli · Assist: L. Accettola
York United
56'
A. Rampersad · Assist: R. Telfer
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
57'
K. Sow ↔ J. Bahamboula
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
58'
A. Rampersad ↔ T. Meilleur-Gigeuere
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
58'
T. Ciccarelli ↔ S. Zitman
HFX Wanderers FC
🟨
60'
Oswaldo León
York United
🟨
63'
Lucas Olguin
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
63'
J. Cordova ↔ R. Lopez
York United
77'
I. Johnston
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
78'
L. Olguin ↔ I. A. Hassan
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
79'
L. Singh ↔ J. Costa
York United
🔄
79'
J. Altobelli ↔ S. Gonzales
York United
🔄
83'
A. Almagro ↔ B. Badibanga
York United
🟨
87'
Steffen Yeates
York United

York United vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.2%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
York United Win 38.2%
Draw 28%
HFX Wanderers FC Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
York United1.25
HFX Wanderers FC1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
York United York United
WWDLW
17 GF / 31 GA
HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC
WLDWL
21 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.17
2.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
10
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
9
1.43
Shots on Goal
1.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

York United York United 15 matches
HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC 18 matches
York United Statistic HFX Wanderers FC
4 Wins 4
5 Draws 6
6 Losses 8
17 Goals For 21
31 Goals Against 26
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
2.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
10 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
1.43 Shots On Goal 1.82
2.93 Total Shots 4.88
0.79 Corners 2.41
12.1% Ball Possession 26%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward HFX Wanderers FC. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. York United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with York United expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and HFX Wanderers FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HFX Wanderers FC having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

York United Analysis

York United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 14 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats with a 16:31 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

HFX Wanderers FC Analysis

Placed 5 with 17 points from 17 outings, HFX Wanderers FC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 21:26 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, York United won 5 times, HFX Wanderers FC won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:26 from York United's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72%)
Predicted formations: York United 4-2-3-1 / HFX Wanderers FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: York United wins 5, draws 5, HFX Wanderers FC wins 5

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 37:11 26 43
W W W D W
2 20 13 3 4 30:15 15 42
D L W W L
3 21 10 4 7 34:34 0 34
D W L W W
4 20 8 3 9 26:23 3 27
L L L D W
5 19 6 4 9 27:33 -6 22
W D L L D
6 20 5 5 10 28:34 -6 20
L W L L D
7 18 4 7 7 23:38 -15 19
D L D W D
8 19 1 6 12 22:39 -17 9
D W L D D